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中银证券研究部2025年6月金股
Core Viewpoints - The market in June is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, while April's industrial profits continued to show a recovery trend but experienced a decline in both volume and price. The cost decline was the main driver of profit growth in April. PMI data for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, and the trend of weak inventory replenishment is likely to continue in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a cautious and oscillating market environment. Key areas to watch for a breakthrough include developments in overseas tariffs and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June [4][10][12]. June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by the report includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Pharmaceuticals) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [10][12]. Industry Summaries Transportation Industry: SF Express - SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a steady growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The profit growth was primarily driven by the continuous improvement of the product matrix and enhanced service competitiveness. The company also focused on cost control through operational model reforms and network optimization, achieving a gross profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [12][13]. Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - Anji Technology experienced rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 58.45%, with a net profit margin of 29.08%. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 55.70%, and the net profit margin was 30.96%. The company is seeing a steady increase in its global market share for polishing liquids, with a projected market size growth for semiconductor CMP polishing materials [14][15]. Pharmaceutical Industry: Bairen Medical - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in revenue and profit in 2024, with significant increases in its three main business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2025, driven by the approval of its first interventional valve product, which offers significant advantages in terms of operation and safety [17][18]. Social Services Industry: Lingnan Holdings - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The company’s travel agency operations and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of hotel management projects [20][21]. Food and Beverage Industry: Qingdao Beer - Qingdao Beer faced pressure on volume and price in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline in sales volume of 7.0%. However, the company benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to an improvement in gross profit margins. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers, supported by the company's strong brand and distribution network [23][24]. Computer Industry: Suochen Technology - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. The engineering simulation software segment has shown significant growth, contributing to an overall increase in the company's gross profit margin [25][26][27].
6月金股组合:中银证券研究部2025年6月金股
中银证券· 2025-06-04 07:48
Strategy Overview - The market in June is expected to remain in a state of waiting for a breakthrough, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, although April's industrial profits showed a decline in both volume and price, with cost reductions being the main driver for profit growth. The PMI for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, continuing the trend of weak inventory replenishment in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the market. Key areas to monitor for a breakthrough include overseas tariff developments and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June. [5][7] June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by Zhongyin Securities includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [14][16] Performance Review of May Stock Selection - The stock selection for May outperformed the market, with notable performances from Jiemian Express-W and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both achieving over 10% monthly returns. The absolute return of the May stock selection was 3.87%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.02 percentage points. Three stocks achieved excess returns of over 5% compared to the CSI 300. [9] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (Transportation) - In Q1 2025, SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The net profit increased by 16.87% year-on-year, driven by continuous improvement in product matrix and service competitiveness. The gross profit margin was 13.3%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points. [16][17] Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Anji Technology is expected to see rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 58.45%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached 1.545 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.73%. The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is expected to grow from 3.42 billion USD in 2024 to 3.62 billion USD in 2025. [19][20] Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue across all three major business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The approval of the TAVR product in August 2024 is expected to drive further growth in 2025. [24][25] Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The travel agency and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism. [29][30] Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in 2024 with a volume decline of 7.0% and a slight price increase of 0.5%. The company’s gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, but net profit margin slightly decreased. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers. [34][35] Suochen Technology (Computers) - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. [38][39][40]