每经记者｜张宏 每经编辑｜贾运可 11月30日，国家统计局公布11月中国采购经理指数（PMI）运行情况。 数据显示，11月，中国制造业PMI为49.2%，比10月回升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。其中，生产 指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，分别比上月上升0.3个和0.4个百分点。高技术制造业PMI为 50.1%，连续10个月位于临界点以上。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅在接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时表示，11月主要原材料 购进价格指数为53.6%，较前值提高1.1个百分点，仍在景气线上方，表明上游价格仍在上行，并且出现 提速；出厂价格指数为48.2%，较前值回升0.7个百分点，仍在景气线下方，出现一定改善。主要原材料 购进价格指数与出厂价格指数的差值为5.4个百分点，较前值扩大0.4个百分点，指向利润向上游转移。 市场需求有所修复 11月，制造业PMI小幅回升。体现市场需求的制造业新订单指数回升0.4个百分点至49.2%，表明市场需 求有所修复。 从需求结构上看，新订单指数与新出口订单指数差值在10月份出现跳升后，回落1.3个百分点至1.6个百 分点。新出口订单指数回升1.7个百 ...

库存 中 降，钢价震荡偏强 【】【】[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [库存稳中有 Table_Title]降，钢价震荡偏强 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_ReportDate] ...

研究所 弱势震荡，反弹乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

铝月报（2025 年11月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-11-28 中航期货 目录 01 后市研判 03 宏观 面 02 行情回顾 04 基本 面 | 落， | 点 | 高 | 期 | 从 | 空 | 积 | 月 | 月 | 持 | 个 | 张 | 购 | 周 | 回 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 2 | 维 | 几 | 扩 | 采 | 币 | 幅 | 荡。 | 下1 | 荡。 | 下1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 荡 | 下 | 亦 | 近 | 转 | 货 | 能 ...

加工环节和终端需求 source： Wind source： Wind source： Wind 镀锌板（带）净出口季节性. source： Wind 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 25 50 75 100 压铸锌合金净进口季节性. source： Wind 吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 2500 5000 7500 10,000 12,500 15,000 . 锌产业周报 2025/11/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced changes in liquidity, with short-term interest rates declining and long-term yields showing reduced volatility, indicating a steepening yield curve [2][3] - Short-term rates reflect market expectations for policy easing, driven by structural issues in China's economic growth, such as weak consumption and declining real estate sales, suggesting a continued need for a loose monetary environment [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds have shifted, with an increase in the issuance of ultra-long bonds, particularly local government bonds, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of long-term bonds in the market [3] Group 2 - Short-term liquidity easing is crucial for the stock market, as it indicates ongoing support for economic growth and can lower financing costs for leveraged funds, potentially increasing risk appetite among investors [4] - The decline in short-term interest rates may lead to a continued shift of household asset allocation towards the stock market, as high-yield assets become scarcer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to rise, and it is an opportune time for sector allocation, supported by the initiation of central safety production assessments which will stabilize market confidence and positively influence steel price trends [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The impact of overseas tariffs is minimal for general steel companies due to their low export ratios, and the "stabilizing growth" policies from the government are likely to marginally improve steel demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [1] - Current profits per ton of general steel are substantial, and in the context of the industry's "anti-involution" trend, there is significant room for performance improvement among general steel companies [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects relevant listed companies in the steel industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [1] - The index includes major sub-sectors such as general steel and special steel, exhibiting significant cyclical characteristics closely related to macroeconomic cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment faces increasing pressure and challenges due to external demand slowdown and weakened domestic demand, but positive factors are accumulating, indicating that the annual economic growth target remains achievable [1] Economic Performance - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with cumulative growth maintained for three consecutive months since August [1][2] - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.8% year-on-year, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [2] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors are the main driving forces, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% [2] Industrial Profit Trends - In specific sectors, profits in graphite and carbon products manufacturing, biochemical pesticides, and cultural information chemicals manufacturing saw significant increases of 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively [3] - The report from Guotai Junan Securities suggests that sustained profit improvement requires ongoing supply-side structural optimization and effective demand expansion policies [3] Physical Indicators - Social electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh in October, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [4] - Railway freight volume reached a historical high of 3.378 billion tons from January to October, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - The express delivery business volume grew by 16.1% year-on-year, reaching 162.68 billion pieces in the first ten months [5] - Excavator sales increased by 17% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 19.6% and exports up by 14.4% [5][6] Policy Support - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative is a key focus for expanding effective investment and fostering new productive forces, with significant funding allocated for major projects [7][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs, covering various sectors including logistics, public utilities, and clean energy [9] - New policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and urban renewal [10]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment faces increased pressure and challenges due to slowing external demand and weakening domestic momentum, but positive factors are accumulating, supporting the completion of annual economic growth targets [2] - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a continuous growth rate maintained for three consecutive months since August [3][4] Industrial Performance - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors are the main driving forces behind profit growth, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year [4] - Traditional industries are also showing improvement, with significant profit growth in specific sectors such as chemical and building materials, where profits increased by 77.7% and 73.4% respectively [4] Physical Indicators - Key physical indicators are showing positive trends, with total electricity consumption in October reaching 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [5] - Railway freight volume reached a historical high, with 3.378 billion tons of goods transported from January to October, a 3% increase year-on-year [5] - The express delivery sector also saw robust growth, with a total volume of 162.68 billion packages delivered in the first ten months, up 16.1% year-on-year [5] Construction and Investment Policies - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, including the accelerated issuance of 200 billion yuan in special bonds to support investment construction [7][11] - The "Two Major" construction initiative is a key focus for expanding effective investment and fostering new productive forces, with significant funding allocated for major strategic projects [8][9] Infrastructure and Financial Tools - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include more sectors, enhancing investment in urban renewal and other areas [10] - New policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and urban infrastructure [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and pressures faced by the macro economy in the fourth quarter due to external demand slowdown and weakened domestic demand, while also highlighting positive indicators that suggest the potential to meet annual economic growth targets [3]. Economic Performance - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a continuous growth trend observed since August [4][5]. - In October, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 5.5% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects and rising financial costs [4]. - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.8% year-on-year, supporting profit recovery [4]. Sector Analysis - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors were the main drivers of profit growth, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year [4][5]. - Traditional industries are also showing signs of improvement, with profits in certain sectors significantly exceeding the industry average [4]. Physical Indicators - Social electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh in October, marking a 10.4% year-on-year increase, the highest monthly growth rate this year [7]. - Railway freight volume reached a historical high, with 3.378 billion tons of goods transported from January to October, a 3% increase year-on-year [7]. - The express delivery business volume grew by 16.1% year-on-year, reaching 162.68 billion pieces in the first ten months [8]. - Excavator sales increased by 17% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [8]. Policy Measures - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, including the implementation of "two重" construction to support effective investment and cultivate new productive forces [9][10]. - New policy financial tools and an increase in special bond issuance are expected to bolster infrastructure investment [14]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to support investment in various sectors [12][13].