Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Coking coal continues to decline, cost support weakens further; with decent coking profits, production rebounds, comprehensive coke inventory remains at a high level, and demand recovers weakly, resulting in relatively abundant supply. The volatility of crude oil in the external market narrows, and the sentiment of the coal substitution logic cools down. Overall, coke will remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent pro - growth policies mentioned in this year's government work report [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of March 27, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly by 41,800 tons to 900,500 tons; the coke inventory at 18 ports across the country increased significantly by 208,800 tons to 2,895,100 tons, approaching an 11 - month high; the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 34,900 tons to 6,916,700 tons [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide dropped by 17 yuan to 21 yuan/ton. The profitability of coking enterprises in mainstream regions declined. Coking enterprises in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong had a profit of over 70 yuan, while those in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi were still in the red [1] - According to Mysteel's survey, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.25% to 81.03% month - on - month; the profitability rate increased by 0.87% to 43.29% month - on - month; the daily average pig iron output increased by 29,400 tons to 2,310,900 tons month - on - month [1] Upstream and Downstream Inventory - The coking coal inventory of downstream steel mills increased by 84,800 tons to 7,824,100 tons week - on - week, and the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 425,100 tons to 10,475,400 tons, both at high levels in recent years; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports across the country decreased by 29,300 tons to 4,781,000 tons, and the total social inventory of coking coal increased by 167,600 tons to 25,308,500 tons week - on - week [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2026, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from February, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2] - The production index accelerated by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, while the new orders index surged by 3.0 percentage points to 51.6%[3] - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing an average rebound of 0.9 percentage points in the month following the Spring Festival[3] Group 2: Export and Economic Policy Impact - The new export orders index increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, contributing significantly to the rise in new orders[4] - The government's macroeconomic policy remains proactive, with infrastructure investment growth significantly accelerating, supporting the improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - Despite the positive trends, uncertainties from the Middle East and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector may negatively impact domestic manufacturing operations[5] Group 3: Price Indices and Future Outlook - The ex-factory price index rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, while the main raw material purchase price index surged by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%[5] - The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to around 49.8% in April, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, following the typical seasonal pattern[7] - The ongoing Middle East situation and its impact on global economic conditions may further influence domestic manufacturing and export resilience[8]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for March 2026 is reported at 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2][4] - The production index rose by 1.8 percentage points, while the new orders index increased by 3.0 percentage points, reflecting a positive trend in manufacturing activities[4][12] - The proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand decreased to 48.5%, down 6.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first drop below 50% since July 2022[12] External Demand and Trade - The new export orders index surged to 49.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in external demand[18] - The import orders index also rose to 49.8%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in trade activities[18] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%, outpacing the factory price index, which rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, indicating rising cost pressures for businesses[21] - Both raw material and finished goods inventory indices saw a slight increase, with raw material inventory rising to 47.7% and finished goods inventory to 46.7%[22] Service Sector - The service sector PMI improved to 50.2%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, driven by post-holiday resumption of work[24] - Key sectors such as transportation and financial services showed strong business activity indices above 55.0%, while retail and hospitality sectors experienced a decline[24]

Core Views - The A-share market is showing resilience with a clear structural differentiation, indicating that the index may experience fluctuations in the short term while consolidating support [2][10] - The external influences on the A-share market are diminishing, with the market's own recovery momentum taking precedence [3][12] - The market is characterized by a "hot and cold" sector performance, with strong movements in innovative pharmaceuticals and agriculture, while previously popular sectors like green electricity are retreating [12][10] Market Overview - On Monday, the three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strength [5][10] - The trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in the influx of new capital [12][10] - The overall sentiment in the market is moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling [6] Sector Analysis - Agricultural stocks, particularly in grain and farming, have seen an increase due to stabilizing domestic grain prices and rising overseas prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [7][10] - Aerospace and military stocks are performing well, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the emphasis on "self-control" in key technologies, which enhances the competitive landscape for domestic military enterprises [8][10] - The industrial and precious metals sectors are recovering, supported by ongoing economic growth policies and improving supply-demand dynamics [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies that have been unjustly punished but can validate their growth logic through Q1 performance, as these firms are better positioned to withstand market volatility [3][12] - The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by China's diversified energy structure and stable growth policies [13][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coke market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with high - level comprehensive inventory. Although there is a clear growth expectation for molten iron and good demand for coke from steel mills, the market is expected to be short - term sideways, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20/40 moving averages. Also, pay attention to subsequent growth - stabilizing policies [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Inventory - As of March 27, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly by 4.18 tons to 90.05 tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports across the country increased significantly by 20.88 tons to 289.51 tons, approaching the 11 - month high; the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 3.49 tons to 691.67 tons [1] Profit - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants in the country dropped by 17 yuan to 21 yuan/ton. The profitability of coking enterprises in mainstream regions has declined. Coking enterprises in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong have a profit of over 70 yuan, while those in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi are still in the red [1] Downstream Demand - According to Mysteel's survey, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.25% to 81.03% month - on - month; the profitability rate increased by 0.87% to 43.29% month - on - month; the daily average molten iron output increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of downstream steel mills increased by 8.48 tons to 782.41 tons week - on - week, and the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 42.51 tons to 1047.54 tons, both at high levels in recent years. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports across the country decreased by 2.93 tons to 478.10 tons, and the total social inventory of coking coal increased by 16.76 tons to 2530.85 tons week - on - week [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Coke is expected to continue its short - term rebound, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke inventory increased slightly by 0.18 tons to 1051.04 tons this week. Independent coking plant inventory decreased by 6.2 tons to 94.23 tons, 18 - port coke inventory increased by 5.75 tons to 268.63 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 0.63 tons to 688.18 tons [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 38 yuan/ton this week. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 57 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 97 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia second - grade coke had an average loss of 11 yuan/ton [1] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 79.78% and decreased by 2.18% year - on - year. The profitability rate increased by 1.29% week - on - week to 42.42% and decreased by 10.83% year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output increased by 6.95 tons week - on - week to 228.15 tons [1] - The total coking coal inventory changed little this week, with the social inventory increasing slightly by 0.15 tons week - on - week to 2514.09 tons [1] Demand and Macro - level Factors - Coking coal hit the daily limit today, and coke followed coking coal to rise sharply. The lifting of blast furnace production restrictions in the north led to the resumption of production in steel mills, increased pig iron output, and significantly increased demand for coke. The government work report mentioned "anti - involution" this year, and follow - up stable - growth policies should be monitored [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bullish rating for the coke industry, suggesting a low - buying approach [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of profitability, the daily output of steel and coke enterprises has increased slightly. The lifting of blast furnace restrictions in the north has led to the resumption of production in steel mills, a significant rebound in molten iron production, and an obvious increase in coke demand. Considering the government's mention of "anti - involution" in the work report and the expectation of subsequent growth - stabilizing policies, the coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Condition Analysis - Coke Inventory: This week, the comprehensive inventory of coke in all links increased slightly by 0.18 tons to 1051.04 tons. Among them, the inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 6.2 tons to 94.23 tons, the inventory at 18 ports increased by 5.75 tons to 268.63 tons, and the inventory of steel mills increased by 0.63 tons to 688.18 tons after restocking [1] - Profitability: This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 38 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 57 yuan/ton, that of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 97 yuan/ton, and the average loss of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was 11 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Demand: According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 79.78%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.18%; the profitability rate increased by 1.29% week - on - week to 42.42%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.83%; the daily average molten iron output increased by 6.95 tons week - on - week to 228.15 tons [1] - Upstream Coking Coal: This week, the total inventory of coking coal changed little, with the social inventory increasing slightly by 0.15 tons week - on - week to 2514.09 tons [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways, with a low - buying approach [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Considering the full implementation of the first round of coke price cuts, the expansion of coking enterprises' loss - making scope, the increase in steel mills' demand for coke after the lifting of production restrictions, and the macro - level mention of "anti - involution" in the government work report, the coke market is expected to be short - term sideways [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke inventory: Last week, steel mills' coke inventory increased by 16.29 tons to 687.55 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the comprehensive coke inventory slightly decreased by 1.41 tons to 1050.86 tons [1] - Profit: After the first round of coke price cuts last week, the coking profit of coking enterprises decreased. This week, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide decreased by 20 yuan to - 3 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream demand: Last week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 6.39 tons to 221.2 tons, the lowest in the same period in the past three years [1] - Upstream coking coal: Most coal mines in the producing areas have resumed production, and the comprehensive coking coal inventory has slightly increased [1] - News: From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points compared with the whole last year. From January to February 2026, China's raw coal output was 762.886 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and the coke output was 82.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the coke industry [2] Report's Core View - After the first round of price cuts for coke is fully implemented, the loss - making area of coke enterprises expands. After the important meeting, the iron - making output of steel mills rebounds, increasing the demand for coke. At the macro level, the government work report this year mentions "anti - involution" again, and attention should be paid to subsequent growth - stabilization policies. In general, coke is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term, and a strategy of buying at low levels should be adopted, while paying attention to the support of the 5/10 - day moving average and the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary According to Related Directory Market Analysis - Coke inventory: Last week, due to production restrictions, the demand of steel mills decreased, causing the coke inventory in steel mills to increase by 162,900 tons to 6.8755 million tons, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. This week, the comprehensive coke inventory decreased slightly by 14,100 tons to 10.5086 million tons [1] - Profit: Last week, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented, and the coking profit of coke enterprises declined. This week, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide decreased by 20 yuan to - 3 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream demand: During the important meeting, some blast furnaces faced production restrictions. Last week, the capacity utilization rate continued to decline, and the molten iron output further decreased. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 63,900 tons to 2.212 million tons, the lowest in the same period in the past three years [1] - Upstream coking coal: Most coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has increased slightly [1] - News: From January to February, the national real - estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, and the decline was 6.1 percentage points narrower than that of the whole previous year. The National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to accelerate the establishment of a financing system suitable for the new real - estate development model. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 showed that China's coke output from January to February was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong domestic economic indicators are negative for the bond market, and the war and inflation situations that the bond market is more concerned about are not optimistic. Currently, the impact of the war on the bond market is mainly negative. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach for the time being and pay attention to hedging strategies [3][35][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Shows a Good Start and Industrial Structure Continues to Upgrade - In January - February, economic data exceeded expectations. Industrial added - value increased by 6.3% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The improvement of economic data is consistent with the positive trends of other economic indicators [7][10] - On the production side, strong export demand and pre - holiday rush work by enterprises drove industrial growth to exceed expectations. High - tech manufacturing added - value growth rate increased significantly. On the investment side, fiscal policy and structural monetary policy promoted the increase of investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and the decline of real estate development investment narrowed. On the consumption side, policies such as national subsidies and the long Spring Festival holiday led to the release of consumer demand [10] - There are still concerns about economic growth. The sustainability of endogenous repair momentum needs to be observed, and the US - Iran war may impact exports [2][11] 3.2 Export is Strong and the Spring Festival is Late, Leading to Faster Industrial Production - In January - February, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added - value was 6.3%, and the month - on - month growth rate in February was 0.83%, higher than the average of the previous three years. Export growth and pre - holiday rush work by enterprises due to the late Spring Festival promoted industrial production [12] - High - tech industries and export - related industries had high added - value growth rates, while the growth rates of upstream metal smelting industries were generally low. It is expected that the year - on - year reading of industrial added - value in March will decline slightly, and there are both supports and concerns for industrial production in Q2 [14] 3.3 National Subsidies and Holiday Demand Release Lead to a Steady Increase in Consumption - In January - February, social consumer goods retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the month - on - month growth rates in January and February exceeded the average of the previous three years. National subsidies and the long Spring Festival holiday promoted consumption [16] - In terms of structure, catering service consumption grew faster than commodity retail, online consumption was active, real - estate post - cycle consumer goods retail increased, and the retail growth rate of gold and silver jewelry was high. In the future, consumption growth is expected to be stable with a slight increase, and the main risk is the weakening of external demand [21] 3.4 Policy is Front - loaded and Investment is Significantly Improved - The improvement of investment growth rate is obvious and exceeds market expectations. In January - February, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the decline of private investment narrowed [22] - Infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment growth rates all rebounded. Infrastructure investment growth rate rebounded significantly, mainly due to the front - loaded fiscal policy. In the future, infrastructure growth rate is expected to be higher than last year [24][25] - Manufacturing investment growth rate also improved significantly, mainly due to the effect of policy financial instruments and other factors. In the future, the investment growth rate of high - tech industries is expected to be high, and the main risk is the weakening of external demand [28] - Although most real - estate data are weak, there are also some positive changes, such as the narrowing of the decline in real - estate development investment and the increase in the price of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities. However, the sustainability of the improvement in real - estate data is not high [31][32] 3.5 Inflation Pressure Increases and the Bond Market is Temporarily Weak - The strong domestic economic indicators are negative for the bond market. The war has a negative impact on the bond market, with the market's concern about inflation being stronger than that about stagnation in the short term [35] - Short - term bond varieties perform better than long - term ones. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach in the short - term, pay attention to hedging strategies, and consider a strategy of making the yield curve steeper [35][36][37]