重挫，就反映了这种市场情绪的转变。目前政策存在很高的不确定性，中美之间 贸易摩擦将比以往更为平凡，但仍存缓和的可能。此外过低的油价可能导致 OPEC 暂缓增长产量。短期油价有向下突破的趋势。 品种观点 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贸易担忧情绪缓解 美股期货开盘走高，标普 500 指数期货涨 1.1%，纳指期货涨 1.4%。布油期货盘 初涨超 1%，加密货币周日反弹，以太坊隔夜涨超 10%；周一亚市盘初，纽铜涨超 2%。围绕贸易问题的担忧情绪缓解。中国商务部表示中方依法对稀土等物项出口 管制，不是禁止出口；希望美方正视自身错误，与中方相向而行，回到对话协商 的正确轨道上来。现货黄金价创新高，升至每盎司 4,060 美元上方。当地时间 12 日，也门胡塞武装政治局成员在接受采访时表示，如果以色列方面能够遵守 当前的加沙地带停火协议，胡塞武装就会停止袭击红海海域以色列以及与以方有 关的船只。不过，胡塞武装将持续监控以方对协议的遵守情况。若以方重启对加 沙的军事行动和封锁，他们将遭到胡塞武装更猛烈的军事打击。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、原油 股指：中美贸易摩擦升级，美国三 ...

首席 点 评 ： 贸易担忧情绪缓解 美股期货开盘走高，标普 500指数期货涨1.1%，纳指期货涨1.4%。布油期货盘初涨超1%，加密货币周 日反弹，以太坊隔夜涨超10%；周一亚市盘初，纽铜涨超2%。围绕贸易问题的担忧情绪缓解。中国商 务部表示中方依法对稀土等物项出口管制，不是禁止出口；希望美方正视自身错误，与中方相向而行， 回到对话协商的正确轨道上来。现货黄金价创新高，升至每盎司4,060美元上方。当地时间12日，也门 胡塞武装政治局成员在接受采访时表示，如果以色列方面能够遵守当前的加沙地带停火协议，胡塞武装 就会停止袭击红海海域以色列以及与以方有关的船只。不过，胡塞武装将持续监控以方对协议的遵守情 况。若以方重启对加沙的军事行动和封锁，他们将遭到胡塞武装更猛烈的军事打击。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、原油 股指： 中美贸易摩擦升级，美国三大指数大幅回调，上一交易日股指大幅回调，电子板块领跌，建筑 材料板块领涨，市场成交额 2.53万亿元。资金方面，10月09日融资余额增加508.05亿元至24291.95亿 元。经过9月的高位震荡，我们认为股指将再次进入方向选择阶段，从当前走势来看，大概率维持多头 趋势。短期 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 11 日 如何理解中美摩擦升级？ —特朗普对华威胁关税点评 事件：美东时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普发布社交媒体，表达对稀土出口管制的强 烈不满，宣布自 11 月 1 日起对中国额外征收 100%的关税，并对"所有关键软 件"实施出口管制。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《制造业 PMI 略逊于往年季 节性———2025 年 9 月 PMI 点 评》2025-10-01 2、《前瞻"十五五"规划—中 央政治局会议点评》2025-09-30 3、《企业盈利增速转正——— 2025 年 8 月工业企业利润分 析》2025-09-27 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 宏观点评报告 枢，特朗普乐见其成，一旦如此市场全球风险偏好又将改善，调整充分即 是机会。 ❑ 五、若 100%关税落地，对国内出口和美国通胀的影响？参考我们在 2025 年 ...

上海力争到2027年培育20家左右未来产业生态主导型企业 上海今日召开市政府新闻发布会，介绍最新出台的《关于加快推动前沿技术创新与未来产业培育的若干 措施》。上海市科委副主任屈炜在发布会上透露，上海力争到2027年，突破一批前沿颠覆性技术，体系 化布局建设一批未来产业集聚区，培育20家左右未来产业生态主导型企业。到2030年，培育壮大一批未 来产业，推动形成若干战略性新兴产业，成为具有世界影响力的未来产业引领地。 "十四五"时期全国累计销售新建商品住宅面积约50亿平方米 宏观要闻 工信部等七部门发文加强新型信息基础设施建设 工信部等七部门关于印发《深入推动服务型制造创新发展实施方案（2025—2028年）》的通知。其中提 到，加强新型信息基础设施建设，深化"5G+工业互联网"融合创新和规模化应用，按需布局算力基础设 施，加速算力与行业融合应用。提升工业数据要素供给，推动数据资源化、资产化和要素化，建设一批 高质量行业数据集。 ...

2025年10月9日，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，中国人民银行以利率招标方式开展11000 亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于10月份有8000亿元同期限逆回购到期，此次操作实现净 投放3000亿元中期流动性。央行开展如此大规模的逆回购操作，不仅是技术上的流动性管理， 更具有深刻的政策信号意义。这一操作清晰释放出央行积极应对潜在流动性缺口、稳固资金面 的明确信号，蕴含着稳增长、稳预期与防风险的多重考量。 央行选择在节后首个工作日立即出手，是对10月份乃至第四季度复杂流动性形势的前瞻性、针 对性应对，凸显了在复杂内外环境下货币政策精准调控、有的放矢的取向。这次操作背后，皆 在应对资金面潜在三重收紧压力。 首先，政府债券较大规模发行引起市场资金趋紧。 9月份全国共发行地方债12843亿元，净融 资额为11056亿元，发行量和净融资额均创年内新高。按照计划，今年新增地方债和超长期特 别国债均在10月份发行完毕，将继续吸纳市场资金。央行开展逆回购操作，精准地对冲政府债 券大规模发行带来的流动性压力，这是货币政策与财政政策协同、稳定市场预期的关键之举。 其次，政策性工具发力引致资金需求上升。 9月29日，国家发改委宣 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with characteristics such as "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption." Meanwhile, external tariff pressure has increased, and the domestic government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies [1]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown. The shutdown has affected economic data releases, and there are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, while the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weakening economic data and rising external tariff pressure. The government has introduced pro - growth policies, such as the central bank's call for strengthened monetary policy regulation and the planned use of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments [1]. - On October 9, the A - share market had a good start, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3,900 - point mark for the first time in a decade. The non - ferrous metal sector rose, and the semiconductor industry chain was active. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated downward, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors adjusted. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities such as gold and copper rose [1]. - The US government shutdown entered its second week on October 8, affecting economic data releases. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts. US economic data showed mixed performance, with the manufacturing and service PMIs slightly declining in September, while retail sales and new home sales performed well [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The non - ferrous sector is still facing long - term supply constraints and is recently boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has come into effect [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term, but still need signals from the fundamentals [3]. - Due to the US government shutdown and continuous central bank purchases, gold is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the game at key points [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, which will take effect on November 8, 2025 [5]. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 1.1 trillion yuan in fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multiple - price - winning买断式 reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. More than 3,100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.67 trillion yuan [5]. - Most Fed officials said that continued easing this year may be appropriate, and they emphasized the upside risks to inflation. Employment faces relatively high downside risks [5]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to 153, up 0.2% on the day, for the first time since February [2][5]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza officially came into effect at noon on October 9 [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai nickel futures market experienced a significant increase on October 9, 2025, driven by multiple factors including new policies in China and expectations for economic growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main nickel contract opened at 121,300 CNY/ton and closed at 124,480 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 2.39% from the previous close [1] - The trading volume for the day was 130,864 lots, with an open interest of 86,038 lots [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - New policies in tourism and infrastructure were introduced during the National Day holiday, enhancing the long-term demand outlook for key metals due to the focus on new energy and high-end manufacturing [1] - The market is optimistic about additional "stabilization growth" policies in the fourth quarter, which has increased risk appetite in the base metals sector [1] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, there is growing speculation about further easing in the upcoming October meeting, contributing to a slight decline in the dollar index and a stronger RMB, which reduces import costs for nickel [1] Group 3: Nickel Supply and Demand - The nickel ore market is currently stable, with the Philippines' Surigao mines entering the rainy season, maintaining firm pricing [1] - Earthquakes in the Mindanao region have not impacted mining operations, but downstream steel mills are cautious due to losses, leading to a conservative purchasing approach [1] - Indonesian nickel ore supply remains ample, with expectations of price increases in domestic trade benchmarks within October, while new regulations from the Indonesian government raise concerns about supply stability beyond 2026 [1] Group 4: Current Pricing and Inventory - The sales price of nickel in the Shanghai market by Jinchuan Group is 125,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,700 CNY/ton from the previous price [1] - The previous warehouse receipt volume for Shanghai nickel was 24,775 tons, while LME nickel inventory stood at 236,892 tons [1] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The macroeconomic impact on nickel prices is limited, with prices expected to fluctuate at low levels due to high inventory and oversupply conditions [1] - The strategy suggests focusing on range trading, with no current recommendations for cross-period, cross-commodity, or options trading [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in September, driven by the resumption of US-China trade negotiations and expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, along with a rotation in the technology sector [1][2] - The external environment is showing marginal improvement, with increased market risk appetite supported by ongoing US-China trade talks and stable macro policies in mainland China [2][3] Group 2 - Liquidity pressure in Hong Kong has eased with the resumption of overseas interest rate cuts, leading to accelerated inflows of southbound capital, with a net inflow exceeding 1.1 trillion HKD this year, setting a new historical high [3] - The market is expected to enter a "quiet season" due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, alongside uncertainties related to the US government's short-term financing plan, which may amplify overseas disturbances [4] Group 3 - The investment strategy continues to focus on a "high elasticity" and "high dividend" approach, with adjustments based on policy catalysts [5] - In the technology growth sector, the valuation recovery logic for tech stocks is further strengthened under the interest rate cut environment, with strong demand from southbound capital for high-growth sectors like AI [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to see valuation recovery, with Chinese innovative drug companies accelerating their global expansion [5] - High dividend yielding sectors such as banks, insurance, and utilities are highlighted as stable components in investment portfolios, providing consistent dividend income amid market volatility [5]

午后，港股维持疲弱走势。个股方面，小米集团跌近2%。 港股跌逾1% 恒生指数盘中跌超1%，恒生科技指数一度跌超1.7%。 交银国际研报认为，9月港股延续震荡上行态势，在中美谈判重启和海外降息预期双重利好助推下，叠加科技板块轮动上涨，对大盘形成重要提振。外部 环境延续向好，中美贸易谈判重启，双方就关税削减、出口管制等关键议题展开磋商，市场对双边关系进展预期有所升温。与此同时，中国内地宏观政策 保持连续性和稳定性，"稳增长"政策工具箱储备充足，亦为港股提供了基本面预期支撑。 该机构认为，国庆及中秋长假影响，港股市场预计将短暂进入"淡季"模式，叠加美国政府短期融资法案不确定性，海外扰动影响或放大。同时，市场对美 联储降息时点和幅度仍存分歧，短期内可能仍以"有条件降息"为主调，预期反复或引起市场震荡。港股部分优质板块估值已接近历史高位，短期获利了结 压力犹存，可重点关注美联储降息节奏、中美关系进展及中国内地稳增长政策情况。 小米集团早盘下跌，午后跌近2%。 近日，"小米汽车自己开走"的话题冲上微博热搜。 个股方面，大众公用涨超23%，上海电气涨近16%。 有网络报道称，10月2日，山东威海一位车主发视频反映，自己的小 ...

央行9月30日公告表示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 他分析背后的主要原因在于，10月政府债券还会较大规模发行；9月29日国家发改委宣布，当前正在加快推进5000亿新型政策性金融工 具相关工作，预计接下来会较大幅度拉动配套贷款投放；另外，当前股市强势运行，10月居民存款"搬家"现象还会比较明显。以上都会 在一定程度上带来资金面收紧效应。由此，着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有 助于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也将释放数量型政策 工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 中信证券固定收益分析师赵诣认为，10月由于存在假期因素导致现金需求季节性抬升，叠加财政性存款同样存在季节性多增的压力，流 动性缺口可能较大；央行选择在节前公告买断式逆回购操作，也是为了释放呵护流动性宽松的政策信号。预计节后央行将择机对6个月 买断式逆回购品种进行续作，买断式逆回购工具料将维持此前 ...