大类资产展望
Search documents
中信证券:2026年大类资产展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 1: Equity Market - The report anticipates a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A index for 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery, leading to a "Davis Double" market scenario [1] - The US stock market is projected to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the midterm election year [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% for the year, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Group 3: Commodity Market - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strength due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an expected average price increase to $12,000 per ton [1] Group 4: Currency Market - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]