Group 1: Asset Environment and Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, with the 10-year China bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% and the 10-year US Treasury yield maintaining a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] - The report anticipates that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel, while gold prices may continue to be strong, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and electricity demand [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - Huatai Securities indicates that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign investors' interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive cycle for capital inflows and easing financial conditions [2] - The report notes that despite seasonal declines in capital flows and risk appetite towards the end of the year, the strengthening of the RMB will continue to boost the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged nearly 150% this year, driven by strong industrial demand, low global inventories, and its inclusion in key mineral lists [2] - Analysts suggest that silver is breaking away from its traditional role as a "by-product" of gold, with its independent investment logic being re-evaluated by the market [2] - Predictions indicate that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce by 2026, especially if monetary instability increases [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Tokyo's inflation rate has shown a greater-than-expected decline, with the CPI rising 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.8% the previous month, primarily due to easing food price increases and lower energy costs [3] - Despite the slowdown, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, suggesting continued tightening of monetary policy [3] - The Japanese economy is expected to rebound from a contraction in Q3, with forecasts indicating production growth of 1.2% and 1.8% in December and January 2026, respectively [3] Group 5: Japanese Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Finance Ministry plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds to the lowest level in 17 years, cutting nearly 20% from the previous fiscal year to approximately 17.4 trillion yen [4] - The total issuance of Japanese government bonds for the next fiscal year is projected to be 180.7 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly 5% from the current fiscal year [4] Group 6: South Korean Currency Intervention - The South Korean won has strengthened against the US dollar due to verbal interventions and measures from authorities, with the government expressing a firm commitment to alleviate pressure on the currency [4] - Recent measures may lead to a dollar sell-off of up to $23 billion, although there are risks that the outcomes may not meet expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 1: Equity Market - The report anticipates a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A index for 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery, leading to a "Davis Double" market scenario [1] - The US stock market is projected to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the midterm election year [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% for the year, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Group 3: Commodity Market - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strength due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an expected average price increase to $12,000 per ton [1] Group 4: Currency Market - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unexpected decline in U.S. employment data, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which may result in marginal liquidity easing [1][2] - The U.S. August non-farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped to 22,000 (previous value 73,000, forecast 75,000), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating increased risks in the labor market [2] - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and inflation, suggesting that gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - In the industrial metals sector, there is an anticipation of demand recovery during the peak season, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved processing rates in downstream industries [1][2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are expected to improve marginally due to seasonal factors and maintenance disruptions, providing price support [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 流动性边际宽松，国债期货小幅反弹 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性， 市场流动性边际宽松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底 需要偏宽松的货币环境，未来政策面降息预期升温，国债期货的中长期向上 逻辑较为牢靠。不过后续政策仍需等待 7 月重磅会议在政策面的指引，短期 内驱动动能预计有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅 ...