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国泰海通|有色金属:降息延长中期趋势,“衰退”隐忧藏机会
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unexpected decline in U.S. employment data, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which may result in marginal liquidity easing [1][2] - The U.S. August non-farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped to 22,000 (previous value 73,000, forecast 75,000), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating increased risks in the labor market [2] - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and inflation, suggesting that gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - In the industrial metals sector, there is an anticipation of demand recovery during the peak season, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved processing rates in downstream industries [1][2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are expected to improve marginally due to seasonal factors and maintenance disruptions, providing price support [2]
流动性边际宽松,国债期货小幅反弹
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 09:06
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 流动性边际宽松,国债期货小幅反弹 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性, 市场流动性边际宽松。回顾方面,5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱,政策托底 需要偏宽松的货币环境,未来政策面降息预期升温,国债期货的中长期向上 逻辑较为牢靠。不过后续政策仍需等待 7 月重磅会议在政策面的指引,短期 内驱动动能预计有限。总的来说,短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明:本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书,期货投资咨询资格证书, 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度, 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅 ...