1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 3. Core View - Short - term, after a short - term rally, the soybean meal market may be slightly weak, but a significant decline is unlikely [6] 4. Summary by Sections 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market data**: For contract "doupo2601", the previous settlement price was 3009, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3051, the lowest price was 2994, the closing price was 3044, the increase was 35, the increase rate was 1.16%, the trading volume was 528804, the open interest was 722842, and the change in open interest was - 28136; for "doupo2603", the corresponding data were 2955, 2940, 3003, 2932, 2987, 32, 1.08%, 219356, 584669, and 41240; for "doupo2605", they were 2771, 2755, 2761, 2736, 2754, - 17, - 0.61%, 1083237, 1933888, and 14351 [6] - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract falling close to 1080 cents. The USDA's December monthly supply - demand report had few highlights, and estimates such as US soybean yield, exports, ending stocks, and South American production remained the same as in November. The US market is worried about China's procurement progress, and there are rumors that China's procurement of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January may be postponed to February. Argentina plans to cut soybean export taxes. South American new crops have no positive news, with favorable rainfall in Brazil and dry conditions in Argentina, but it's not the critical growth stage yet. The external market may face some pressure, but the neutral ending stocks limit the decline [6] - **Domestic market**: The domestic market showed a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. There are rumors that the soybean clearance process may be delayed, potentially affecting supply, but considering the high inventory of soybean meal and the relatively high quantity of port soybeans, the short - term rally is not expected to be sustainable. The state reserve is auctioning imported soybeans, ensuring sufficient supply [6] 4.2 Industry News - The USDA's December oilseed report shows that the US 2025/2026 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels, unchanged from November. Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons (market expectation: 48.57 million tons), and Brazil's is expected to be 175 million tons (market expectation: 175.35 million tons). The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 1.2237 billion tons, up from 1.2199 billion tons in November [7][9] - Farmers participating in the US crop subsidy program reported the areas of crops that could not be planted before December 1. The non - plantable areas of corn, soybeans, and wheat were 1.839 million acres, 1.268 million acres, and 284,000 acres respectively. The planted areas (including failed sowing areas) reported by producers participating in the December 1, 2025 subsidy program were 97.244 million mu of corn, 80.303 million mu of soybeans, and 48.886 million mu of wheat [9] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [10][12][18]

Group 1 - The USDA projects Brazil's soybean production for the 2025/26 season to be 175 million tons, unchanged from the August forecast [1] - Argentina's soybean production for the 2025/26 season is also projected to remain at 48.5 million tons, consistent with the August forecast [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds is experiencing significant gains, with soybean futures showing a notable upward trend, reaching 3830.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% [1] - As of August 8, the deliverable inventory of soybeans at CBOT is reported at 5.059 million bushels, a decrease of 26.35% from the previous week, but an increase of 72.49% compared to the same period last year [2] - The USDA's August supply and demand report indicates a downward adjustment in the expected soybean production for the 2025/2026 season to 4.292 billion bushels, below market expectations of 4.365 billion bushels [2] Group 2 - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry anticipates that domestic soybean prices will remain stable before the autumn grain harvest [2] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) forecasts soybean exports from Brazil to reach 8.8 million tons in August, up from the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons [2] - A report from Ruida Futures highlights that timely rainfall in the U.S. Midwest has bolstered expectations for a bumper soybean crop, although the USDA's report indicates a reduction in harvested area, leading to a decrease in expected production [3]

Core Insights - The USDA's July forecast for the 2025/2026 U.S. soybean production is set at 4.335 billion bushels, slightly above market expectations of 4.334 billion bushels [1] - The July forecast for the 2025/2026 U.S. soybean ending stocks is projected at 310 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 302 million bushels [1] - The July forecast for the 2025/2026 U.S. soybean yield is anticipated to be 52.5 bushels per acre, aligning with market expectations of 52.5 bushels per acre [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's June report indicates that the soybean production forecast for the 2025/2026 season in the U.S. is 4.34 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Production and Inventory - The expected soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, matching market expectations [1] - The forecast for the ending soybean stocks for the 2025/2026 season is 295 million bushels, slightly below market expectations of 298 million bushels [1] - The expected soybean yield for the 2025/2026 season is 52.5 bushels per acre, consistent with market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the nearing completion of soybean harvest in Argentina and raises questions about whether the production will meet expectations and how future exports may change [1] Group 1: Soybean Harvest - Argentina's soybean harvest is approaching its end, prompting analysis of the final production figures [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the soybean yield will meet the anticipated levels, which could impact market dynamics [1] Group 2: Future Exports - The article hints at potential changes in soybean exports from Argentina, which could be influenced by the final harvest results [1] - Export trends will be closely monitored as they may affect global soybean supply and pricing [1]