1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 3. Core View - Short - term, after a short - term rally, the soybean meal market may be slightly weak, but a significant decline is unlikely [6] 4. Summary by Sections 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market data**: For contract "doupo2601", the previous settlement price was 3009, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3051, the lowest price was 2994, the closing price was 3044, the increase was 35, the increase rate was 1.16%, the trading volume was 528804, the open interest was 722842, and the change in open interest was - 28136; for "doupo2603", the corresponding data were 2955, 2940, 3003, 2932, 2987, 32, 1.08%, 219356, 584669, and 41240; for "doupo2605", they were 2771, 2755, 2761, 2736, 2754, - 17, - 0.61%, 1083237, 1933888, and 14351 [6] - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract falling close to 1080 cents. The USDA's December monthly supply - demand report had few highlights, and estimates such as US soybean yield, exports, ending stocks, and South American production remained the same as in November. The US market is worried about China's procurement progress, and there are rumors that China's procurement of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January may be postponed to February. Argentina plans to cut soybean export taxes. South American new crops have no positive news, with favorable rainfall in Brazil and dry conditions in Argentina, but it's not the critical growth stage yet. The external market may face some pressure, but the neutral ending stocks limit the decline [6] - **Domestic market**: The domestic market showed a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. There are rumors that the soybean clearance process may be delayed, potentially affecting supply, but considering the high inventory of soybean meal and the relatively high quantity of port soybeans, the short - term rally is not expected to be sustainable. The state reserve is auctioning imported soybeans, ensuring sufficient supply [6] 4.2 Industry News - The USDA's December oilseed report shows that the US 2025/2026 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels, unchanged from November. Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons (market expectation: 48.57 million tons), and Brazil's is expected to be 175 million tons (market expectation: 175.35 million tons). The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 1.2237 billion tons, up from 1.2199 billion tons in November [7][9] - Farmers participating in the US crop subsidy program reported the areas of crops that could not be planted before December 1. The non - plantable areas of corn, soybeans, and wheat were 1.839 million acres, 1.268 million acres, and 284,000 acres respectively. The planted areas (including failed sowing areas) reported by producers participating in the December 1, 2025 subsidy program were 97.244 million mu of corn, 80.303 million mu of soybeans, and 48.886 million mu of wheat [9] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [10][12][18]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract details**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3043, the highest price was 3055, the lowest price was 3025, the closing price was 3030, with a decline of 5 and a decline rate of -0.16%. The trading volume was 609,632, the open interest was 840,915, and the open interest change was -78,817. For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3010, the opening price was 3011, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2971, the closing price was 2978, with a decline of 32 and a decline rate of -1.06%. The trading volume was 166,459, the open interest was 553,792, and the open interest change was -8,090. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2828, the opening price was 2821, the highest price was 2826, the lowest price was 2770, the closing price was 2778, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.77%. The trading volume was 1,089,811, the open interest was 1,890,767, and the open interest change was 107,247 [6] - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract falling below 1100 cents. The main reasons were the US concerns about China's procurement progress. Although there was a large - order purchase of 460,000 tons over the weekend, it was reported that the previous claim of China's full - scale purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January might be postponed to February. Meanwhile, February is the season when Brazilian soybeans start to be exported, leading to a negative market sentiment. Additionally, there were no positive factors in the new South American crops. Brazil had basically completed most of its sowing, and above - average rainfall was expected in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, which was conducive to a high - yield expectation. Argentina was a bit dry, but it was still in the middle - late sowing stage and not yet in the critical weather - growth stage, exerting some downward pressure on the market [7] - **Domestic situation**: Domestic soybean meal followed the weak trend of CBOT soybeans but with a smaller decline. Due to the previously low overall crushing profit and the difficulty of significant cost reduction in the external market while China was still purchasing, the support below the soybean meal price was relatively strong. However, there was still inventory pressure, and additional positive factors such as weather or procurement were needed for the price to rise. The state reserve began to auction imported soybeans, and it was expected that the newly purchased US soybeans would be used for inventory rotation, so the sufficient supply situation would continue [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the price will be slightly weak but is unlikely to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA's December supply - demand report on the market [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA monthly report forecast**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the December crop supply - demand report at 1:00 on December 10, Beijing time. Analysts' average forecast shows that the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 302 million bushels, higher than the 290 million bushels estimated in the November 14 report. The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 122.41 million tons, higher than the 121.99 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.857 million tons, higher than the 4.85 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 175.35 million tons, higher than the 175 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. The USDA predicts that farmers will plant 95 million acres of corn in the 2026/27 season, less than the 98.7 million acres in the 2025/26 season. The soybean planting area is expected to increase from 81.1 million acres to 85 million acres. The USDA forecasts that the US 2026/27 corn ending stocks will be 2.019 billion bushels and the soybean ending stocks will be 314 million bushels [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][16]