12月19日，国内期市油脂油料板块大面积飘绿。其中，豆二期货呈现弱势震荡，截至发稿，主力合约报 3651.00元/吨，小幅上涨1.88%。 据美国农业部，截至11月27日当周，美国2025/2026年度大豆出口净销售为110.6万吨，前一周为232.1万 吨；2026/2027年度大豆净销售1万吨，前一周为0万吨；美国2025/2026年度对中国大豆净销售50.9万 吨，前一周为214.2万吨；美国2025/2026年度对中国大豆累计销售301.5万吨，前一周为250.6万吨。 据外媒报道，巴西全国谷物出口商协会(ANEC)表示，巴西12月大豆出口量预计为357万吨，之前一周预 计为333万吨。 机构观点：预计豆二震荡偏空 新世纪期货：因市场对美豆出口担忧，美对华大豆销售缓慢仍是市场关注焦点，再加上南美丰产预期压 制，美豆偏弱。受进口巨量到港与国储抛储冲击，国内大豆呈现高库存、高压榨量供应宽松格局，预计 豆二震荡偏空，关注南美大豆产区天气、中美贸易进展等不确定性风险。 【宏观消息速递】 阿根廷农林渔业国秘处发布的月报显示，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆种植面积预估为1740万公顷，较上月 预估持平。 据外媒报道 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 豆粕：美豆小幅收跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4130 | -21 （-0.51%） | 4084 | -58（-1.40%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2758 | -15（-0.54%） | 2748 | -14（-0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1073 | -3.25（-0.30%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 303.9 | +1.9 （+0.63%） | n a | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | | 3060～3160， 1-2月/2-3月M2605+380； | 较昨持平至-10； 现货基差M2605+360 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - Soybeans are experiencing losses of 5 to 7 cents across most contracts, with the national average cash bean price at $10.60, down 4.5 cents [1] - Soymeal futures have decreased by $3.00 to $3.50, while soy oil futures have increased by 23 to 35 points [1] Group 2: Export Data - USDA reported soybean export shipments at 920,194 MT (33.81 million bushels) for the week ending November 27, which is 56.4% lower than the same week in 2024 but up 13.8% from the previous week [2] - No shipments were made to China, with Italy being the top destination at 201,766 MT, followed by Egypt at 126,925 MT and Mexico at 83,620 MT [2] - Cumulative exports for the marketing year 2025/26 are at 11.87 MMT (436.27 million bushels), down 45.6% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Sales and Crop Estimates - For the week ending October 23, soybean sales were reported at 1.45 MMT, which is 30.8% higher than the previous week but still 37.1% lower than last year [3] - Soybean meal sales reached 640,021 MT for the week of October 23, exceeding trade expectations, while bean oil sales were at 29,820 MT, also surpassing estimates [4] - AgRural estimates that the Brazilian soybean crop is 89% planted as of Thursday, compared to 91% during the same period last year [4] - StoneX has revised the Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 177.2 MMT, a decrease of 1.7 MMT from their previous forecast [4]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. soybean exports are expected to improve, leading to a significant increase in soybean futures prices, which reached a 16-month high [1] - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed up 1.7%, with the January soybean futures contract rising by 19 cents to settle at $11.34-1/4 per bushel [1] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's export inspection report shows that soybean export inspections for the week ending October 30, 2025, totaled 965,063 tons, which is at the lower end of market expectations, down 17% week-over-week and down 58% year-over-year [1] Group 2 - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean planting rate was reported at 47.1%, an increase from 34.4% the previous week, but lower than 53.3% during the same period last year and below the five-year average of 54.7% [1] - As of November 3, the national port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 8.17414 million tons, a slight increase of 33,980 tons compared to the same period last week [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of oils and fats remains stable, and prices continue to fluctuate. The impact of Sino - US trade frictions needs to be monitored in the later stage [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 34 yuan and a decline of - 0.36%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9959.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 63.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.63% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9270.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.54%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.58% [1] Spot Basis - The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was P01 + - 60.00, with a change of + 84.00 yuan. The spot basis of soybean oil in Tianjin was Y01 + 200.00, with a change of + 38.00 yuan. The spot basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was OI01 + 301.00, with a change of + 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information US Soybean Export Inspection - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 994008 tons, compared with 783495 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year (starting from September 1) was 4040284 tons, compared with 5463369 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production and Export Forecast - CONAB predicts that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.64 million tons, an increase of about 6 million tons year - on - year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.6% to 49.07 million hectares. The soybean export volume is expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, while the US soybean export volume is expected to decline [2] Brazilian Crop Planting Progress - In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Paraná state is the fastest, with a sowing rate of 31%, followed by Mato Grosso state with a planting rate of 18.9%. Most regions are waiting for rainfall, which is expected to resume in the second half of October [2] Brazilian October Export Forecast - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean export volume in October to be 7.31 million tons, the soybean meal export volume to be 2.06 million tons, and the corn export volume to be 6.46 million tons, all higher than last week's expectations [2]

Group 1 - Brazil's total soybean exports in the first four weeks of August reached 7.2578 million tons, compared to 8.0415 million tons in August of the previous year [1] - The average daily export volume for August was 453,600 tons, which represents a 24% increase compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August last year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the price of soybean meal futures fluctuated and consolidated. Looking ahead, the domestic soybean market shows a continuous accumulation of inventory, with port soybean inventory reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. The decline in oil mill crushing volume reflects weak terminal demand, and the drop in imported soybean prices weakens cost support. With ample domestic soybean supply, high soybean meal production, and multiple negative factors such as reduced demand for soybean meal, the price of soybean meal is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [6][9][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In July 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose 0.64% to close at 2965, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal futures rose 2.98% to close at 2561. Internationally, the continuous price of US soybeans fell 3.09% to close at 996.00, and the price of US soybean meal fell 5.11% to close at 274.60 [6][10]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report Adjustments**: The USDA report shows that the global soybean crushing volume for the 2025/26 season has been increased by 1.12 million tons to 367.71 million tons, mainly due to the increase in US soybean crushing volume. The export volume has decreased by 0.8 million tons to 187.63 million tons, as the increase in Argentine soybean exports cannot offset the decrease in US soybean exports, indicating a change in the global soybean export pattern [7][17][18]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production is estimated to be reduced by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean crush is increased by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, and the export is reduced by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels. The ending inventory is increased by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels [14][15]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: The estimated global soybean production for the forecast year is 427.68 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.86 million tons. The demand is 425.17 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.02 million tons. The supply - demand gap is 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons compared to the same period last year [19]. - **Domestic Market Indicators**: As of July 27, 2025, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 961,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52,700 tons. As of July 30, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan per head. As of June 2025, the feed production was 29.377 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [21][22][23]. Cross - Variety Analysis - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 9 yuan per ton, and the spot pressing profit of soybeans in Jiangsu was 93.25 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level [28]. - **Futures Contract Ratios**: As of July 30, 2025, the ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.74, at a relatively high level seasonally. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.91, and the price difference was - 275 yuan per ton [30][31]. Outlook for the Future The domestic soybean market has a continuous accumulation of inventory, a significant decline in oil mill crushing volume, and weak terminal demand. The drop in imported soybean prices weakens cost support. With ample domestic supply, high soybean meal production, and reduced demand for soybean meal due to policy adjustments, the price of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate and consolidate [9][32][34].

Core Insights - The peak export season for Brazilian soybeans is expected to be delayed until September-October, which may continue to pressure U.S. soybean exports [1] - There is speculation about whether the downward trend in soybean prices has begun due to the ongoing export dynamics [1] Group 1 - Brazilian soybean export season is likely to extend into September-October [1] - U.S. soybean export opportunities are being continuously squeezed [1] - Analysts are evaluating the potential onset of a price decline in soybeans [1]