Group 1 - Brazil's total soybean exports in the first four weeks of August reached 7.2578 million tons, compared to 8.0415 million tons in August of the previous year [1] - The average daily export volume for August was 453,600 tons, which represents a 24% increase compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August last year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the price of soybean meal futures fluctuated and consolidated. Looking ahead, the domestic soybean market shows a continuous accumulation of inventory, with port soybean inventory reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. The decline in oil mill crushing volume reflects weak terminal demand, and the drop in imported soybean prices weakens cost support. With ample domestic soybean supply, high soybean meal production, and multiple negative factors such as reduced demand for soybean meal, the price of soybean meal is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [6][9][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In July 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose 0.64% to close at 2965, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal futures rose 2.98% to close at 2561. Internationally, the continuous price of US soybeans fell 3.09% to close at 996.00, and the price of US soybean meal fell 5.11% to close at 274.60 [6][10]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report Adjustments**: The USDA report shows that the global soybean crushing volume for the 2025/26 season has been increased by 1.12 million tons to 367.71 million tons, mainly due to the increase in US soybean crushing volume. The export volume has decreased by 0.8 million tons to 187.63 million tons, as the increase in Argentine soybean exports cannot offset the decrease in US soybean exports, indicating a change in the global soybean export pattern [7][17][18]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production is estimated to be reduced by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean crush is increased by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, and the export is reduced by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels. The ending inventory is increased by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels [14][15]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: The estimated global soybean production for the forecast year is 427.68 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.86 million tons. The demand is 425.17 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.02 million tons. The supply - demand gap is 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons compared to the same period last year [19]. - **Domestic Market Indicators**: As of July 27, 2025, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 961,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52,700 tons. As of July 30, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan per head. As of June 2025, the feed production was 29.377 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [21][22][23]. Cross - Variety Analysis - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 9 yuan per ton, and the spot pressing profit of soybeans in Jiangsu was 93.25 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level [28]. - **Futures Contract Ratios**: As of July 30, 2025, the ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.74, at a relatively high level seasonally. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.91, and the price difference was - 275 yuan per ton [30][31]. Outlook for the Future The domestic soybean market has a continuous accumulation of inventory, a significant decline in oil mill crushing volume, and weak terminal demand. The drop in imported soybean prices weakens cost support. With ample domestic supply, high soybean meal production, and reduced demand for soybean meal due to policy adjustments, the price of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate and consolidate [9][32][34].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and the UK will increase imports of US agricultural products, which may have a leading effect and benefit US soybean exports. China and the US have started contact and talks, but it may be difficult to reach a consensus in the short term, with limited impact. Last week, the net sales of US soybean exports were 387,000 tons, in line with expectations, supporting the upward fluctuation of US soybeans. However, the USDA drought report showed that as of May 6, the drought - affected area of US soybeans remained stable at 15%, which was relatively low overall. Argentina raised its soybean production forecast for this year by 1.4 million tons to 50 million tons, which was negative for US soybeans. In China, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans resumes, the operating rate of oil mills has gradually increased, and the spot supply of soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, with the spot basis dropping significantly. Currently, the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are low, but they are about to enter the inventory - building cycle. The long - and short - term factors are intertwined, and US soybeans fluctuate. The supply of domestic soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, and the soybean supply is sufficient from May to July. The resumption of normal operation of oil mills suppresses the near - month continuous soybean meal to fluctuate weakly. However, there is a replenishment demand from downstream after the festival, which supports the short - term stability of soybean meal spot. In the long - term, the reduction of the US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the background of production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for the far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is positive for long - term US soybeans. It is still recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal at low levels. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal 09 at a low level in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT soybean closed at 1052.25 cents per bushel this week, down 6.00 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.57%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2899 yuan per ton, down 21 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the US soybean - producing areas, the rainfall is average and the temperature is gradually decreasing. As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, higher than 18% of the previous week, 24% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23% [12][21] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of May 1, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 377,000 tons, down from 428,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 10,000 tons, down from 50,000 tons in the previous week [12][24] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of May 3, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, up from 94.8% last week, higher than 94.3% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 96.3%. The estimated export volume in May is 12.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 870,000 tons. As Brazilian soybeans are exported in large quantities, the near - month premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined again [12][27][34] - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 2, the Argentine soybean harvesting rate was 23%, up from 14% last week, lower than 36.2% of the same period last year [12][30] 3.2.2 Supply - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), a total of 25 ships of soybeans, about 1.625 million tons, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [12][38] 3.2.3 Demand - In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%, 103,000 tons higher than the forecast. The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.0584 million tons, and the pick - up volume was 603,900 tons [12][38][42] 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 18th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from last week, a year - on - year increase of 556,300 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 443,000 tons [12][45] 3.3 Spread Tracking - No specific content provided for spread tracking other than listing the types such as the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread [51]

Report Information - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Affected by the decline of international crude oil and BMD palm oil during the May Day holiday, the domestic oils and fats sector was weak, with palm oil leading the decline. The high - frequency data from the Malaysian palm oil producing areas showed an expectation of increased production and inventory, which suppressed the market. The decline in crude oil made the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, causing the center of palm oil prices to shift down, and the soybean - palm oil price spread gradually returned to normal. The expected large volume of imported soybeans in the future may ease the tight supply of soybean oil, and the basis may decline later. Rapeseed oil was strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decrease in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: In the East China region, the price of first - grade soybean oil was y2509 + 280 from June to September; in the South China region, traders' quotes for rapeseed oil were third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 40 - 50. The basis quote in East China decreased, with the port price of 24 - degree palm oil at P09 + 580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil faced downward pressure due to expected increased production and inventory in Malaysia and unclear B40 demand. The soybean - palm oil price spread normalized. The supply of soybean oil was expected to ease, and the basis might decline. Rapeseed oil was strong due to import policy impacts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 28.06% month - on - month, in Sabah by 24.07%, in Sarawak by 11.37%, and in East Malaysia by 20.76%. The Southern Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month - on - month [8]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Forecasts**: Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: From April 1 to 25, 2025, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.95 million tons, higher than 9.42 million tons a week ago. The average daily soybean export volume so far in April was 762,052 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.1%. The average export price of soybeans so far in April was $389.8 per ton, an 8.9% decrease from the same period last year. ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in April 2025 would reach 13.847 million tons, 400,000 tons or 2.9% higher than the 13.452 million tons in April last year. In the first four months of this year, Brazil's soybean exports were 40.42 million tons, approaching half of last year's annual export volume of 97.3 million tons [8][9][15]. 3.3 Data Overview - **US Crop Planting Progress**: As of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting progress in the US was 30%, compared with 18% the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 23%. The corn planting progress was 40%, compared with 24% the previous week, 35% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39% [15].

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported selling 110,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year [1] - Anec estimated Brazil's soybean exports in April to reach 1.38 million tons, down from the previous week's forecast of 1.43 million tons, and the country's April soybean meal exports are expected to be 210,000 tons, down from the previous week's forecast of 240,000 tons [1] - Argentina's soybean sales hit the slowest pace in 11 years due to exchange - rate uncertainty and slow harvest caused by heavy rain [1] - Conab reported that as of April 26, 2025, Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean harvest rate was 94.8%, up from 92.53% the previous week and 90.5% the same period last year [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products (soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from April 23 to April 29, 2025 are presented in a table [5] Group 3: Other Information - The report also mentions topics such as precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, grease basis, grease and oilseed price spreads on the futures market, grease import profit, and protein meal basis [2][8][12]