油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆粕：ANEC：2026 年 1 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 323 万吨，比去年同期 的 112 万吨增长 188%，创下历史同期最高纪录。预计 2026 年巴西大豆出口量将 达到创纪录的 1.12 亿吨。2025 年全年巴西大豆出口量为 1.0873 亿吨，较 2024 年的 9729 万吨增长 11.8%，也超过了 2023 年的前历史峰值 1.013 亿吨。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现 ...

新世纪期货： 全球大豆供应宽松，因市场对美豆出口担忧，美对华大豆销售缓慢仍是市场关注焦点，南美丰产预期强 烈，不过阿根廷一些大豆产区面临干旱影响。国内进口大豆持续到港，大豆库存高位，供应宽松，下游 节前备货陆续展开为需求带来提振，预计豆二偏震荡，关注南美大豆产区天气、中美贸易进展等不确定 性风险。 巴西大豆压榨商协会（ABIOVE）表示，预计2025/26年度巴西大豆产量将达1.77124亿吨，而上一年度 为1.71481亿吨。预计2026年巴西大豆出口量将达到1.115亿吨，而2025年的出口量为1.082亿吨。 机构观点 瑞达期货（002961）： 美国全国油籽加工商协会（NOPA）最新发布的压榨数据，12月大豆压榨量为2.25亿蒲式耳，环比增长 4.1%，同比增长8.9%，创下历史单月次高水平，且略高于市场预期，反映出美国国内压榨需求持续强 劲，为盘面提供明确支撑。然而，市场同样面临上方压力，巴西即将开启创纪录规模的大豆收获，预计 在未来数月主导全球出口供应，这将持续抑制美豆价格的上涨空间。 消息面 阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至1月22日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆种植率为98%，上周为 ...

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downturn, with soybean futures showing weak fluctuations, and the main contract reported at 3651.00 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 1.88% [1] - Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season to remain stable at 17.4 million hectares compared to the previous month [1] - In Brazil's Paraná state, soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 21.96 million tons, unchanged from November's forecast, indicating a 4% increase from the previous year if realized [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that as of November 27, net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.321 million tons the previous week, with net sales to China at 509,000 tons [1] - Brazil's national grain exporters association (ANEC) predicts soybean exports for December to reach 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [1] - New Century Futures anticipates a bearish trend for soybean futures due to concerns over slow U.S. soybean sales to China and high domestic inventories, suggesting a focus on South American weather and U.S.-China trade developments as uncertainties [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The price of US soybeans slightly declined, and DCE soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot price of DCE soybeans is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price is adjusting and fluctuating [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4130 yuan/ton during the day session, down 21 yuan (-0.51%), and 4084 yuan/ton during the night session, down 58 yuan (-1.40%) - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2758 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.54%), and 2748 yuan/ton during the night session, down 14 yuan (-0.51%) - CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1073 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.30%) - CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 303.9 dollars/short - ton, up 1.9 dollars (+0.63%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal is 3060 - 3160 yuan/ton. The basis for different months has different changes compared to the previous day - In East China, the price is 3050 - 3130 yuan/ton, and the basis for different months also has corresponding changes - In South China, the price is 3100 - 3190 yuan/ton, with specific basis changes for different periods [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.15 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.6 million tons on the day before the previous trading day. The inventory of the week before the previous trading day was 104.55 million tons, and the inventory of the previous trading week is not available [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. The market is worried about the slow export speed of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans has led to continued selling by traders - Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Since October 30, the total sales of US soybeans to China confirmed by the USDA through daily export bulletins have reached 351.6 million tons - The NOPA's member companies crushed 216.04 million bushels of soybeans in November, a 5.1% decrease from the record - high in October but an 11.83% increase from the same period last year, setting a new high for the same period - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 97% complete [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main - contract futures prices during the day session on the report day [3]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract details**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3043, the highest price was 3055, the lowest price was 3025, the closing price was 3030, with a decline of 5 and a decline rate of -0.16%. The trading volume was 609,632, the open interest was 840,915, and the open interest change was -78,817. For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3010, the opening price was 3011, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2971, the closing price was 2978, with a decline of 32 and a decline rate of -1.06%. The trading volume was 166,459, the open interest was 553,792, and the open interest change was -8,090. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2828, the opening price was 2821, the highest price was 2826, the lowest price was 2770, the closing price was 2778, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.77%. The trading volume was 1,089,811, the open interest was 1,890,767, and the open interest change was 107,247 [6] - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract falling below 1100 cents. The main reasons were the US concerns about China's procurement progress. Although there was a large - order purchase of 460,000 tons over the weekend, it was reported that the previous claim of China's full - scale purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January might be postponed to February. Meanwhile, February is the season when Brazilian soybeans start to be exported, leading to a negative market sentiment. Additionally, there were no positive factors in the new South American crops. Brazil had basically completed most of its sowing, and above - average rainfall was expected in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, which was conducive to a high - yield expectation. Argentina was a bit dry, but it was still in the middle - late sowing stage and not yet in the critical weather - growth stage, exerting some downward pressure on the market [7] - **Domestic situation**: Domestic soybean meal followed the weak trend of CBOT soybeans but with a smaller decline. Due to the previously low overall crushing profit and the difficulty of significant cost reduction in the external market while China was still purchasing, the support below the soybean meal price was relatively strong. However, there was still inventory pressure, and additional positive factors such as weather or procurement were needed for the price to rise. The state reserve began to auction imported soybeans, and it was expected that the newly purchased US soybeans would be used for inventory rotation, so the sufficient supply situation would continue [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the price will be slightly weak but is unlikely to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA's December supply - demand report on the market [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA monthly report forecast**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the December crop supply - demand report at 1:00 on December 10, Beijing time. Analysts' average forecast shows that the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 302 million bushels, higher than the 290 million bushels estimated in the November 14 report. The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 122.41 million tons, higher than the 121.99 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.857 million tons, higher than the 4.85 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 175.35 million tons, higher than the 175 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. The USDA predicts that farmers will plant 95 million acres of corn in the 2026/27 season, less than the 98.7 million acres in the 2025/26 season. The soybean planting area is expected to increase from 81.1 million acres to 85 million acres. The USDA forecasts that the US 2026/27 corn ending stocks will be 2.019 billion bushels and the soybean ending stocks will be 314 million bushels [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][16]

Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - Soybeans are experiencing losses of 5 to 7 cents across most contracts, with the national average cash bean price at $10.60, down 4.5 cents [1] - Soymeal futures have decreased by $3.00 to $3.50, while soy oil futures have increased by 23 to 35 points [1] Group 2: Export Data - USDA reported soybean export shipments at 920,194 MT (33.81 million bushels) for the week ending November 27, which is 56.4% lower than the same week in 2024 but up 13.8% from the previous week [2] - No shipments were made to China, with Italy being the top destination at 201,766 MT, followed by Egypt at 126,925 MT and Mexico at 83,620 MT [2] - Cumulative exports for the marketing year 2025/26 are at 11.87 MMT (436.27 million bushels), down 45.6% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Sales and Crop Estimates - For the week ending October 23, soybean sales were reported at 1.45 MMT, which is 30.8% higher than the previous week but still 37.1% lower than last year [3] - Soybean meal sales reached 640,021 MT for the week of October 23, exceeding trade expectations, while bean oil sales were at 29,820 MT, also surpassing estimates [4] - AgRural estimates that the Brazilian soybean crop is 89% planted as of Thursday, compared to 91% during the same period last year [4] - StoneX has revised the Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 177.2 MMT, a decrease of 1.7 MMT from their previous forecast [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides overnight market information and data related to the soybean and oilseeds industry, including export sales, export inspections, planting progress, and price data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 123,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1] US Soybean Export Inspection - For the week ending November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 799,042 tons, in line with expectations [1] - So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 10,937,372 tons, compared to 19,707,429 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] US Soybean and Related Product Export Sales Forecast - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 50 - 140 million tons, with 50 - 140 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 15 - 40 million tons, with 15 - 40 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0.5 - 3 million tons, with 0.5 - 3 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress - As of last Thursday, Brazilian soybean planting for the 2025/26 season reached 81% of the expected area, 10% faster than the previous week but still behind the 86% of the same period last year [1] Brazilian Soybean Export Data - In the first three weeks of November 2025, Brazil exported 3,366,334.35 tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 240,452.45 tons, a 79% increase compared to the daily average export volume in November 2024 [1] Spot Price - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from November 18 - 24, 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. soybean exports are expected to improve, leading to a significant increase in soybean futures prices, which reached a 16-month high [1] - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed up 1.7%, with the January soybean futures contract rising by 19 cents to settle at $11.34-1/4 per bushel [1] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's export inspection report shows that soybean export inspections for the week ending October 30, 2025, totaled 965,063 tons, which is at the lower end of market expectations, down 17% week-over-week and down 58% year-over-year [1] Group 2 - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean planting rate was reported at 47.1%, an increase from 34.4% the previous week, but lower than 53.3% during the same period last year and below the five-year average of 54.7% [1] - As of November 3, the national port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 8.17414 million tons, a slight increase of 33,980 tons compared to the same period last week [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of oils and fats remains stable, and prices continue to fluctuate. The impact of Sino - US trade frictions needs to be monitored in the later stage [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 34 yuan and a decline of - 0.36%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9959.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 63.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.63% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9270.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.54%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.58% [1] Spot Basis - The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was P01 + - 60.00, with a change of + 84.00 yuan. The spot basis of soybean oil in Tianjin was Y01 + 200.00, with a change of + 38.00 yuan. The spot basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was OI01 + 301.00, with a change of + 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information US Soybean Export Inspection - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 994008 tons, compared with 783495 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year (starting from September 1) was 4040284 tons, compared with 5463369 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production and Export Forecast - CONAB predicts that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.64 million tons, an increase of about 6 million tons year - on - year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.6% to 49.07 million hectares. The soybean export volume is expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, while the US soybean export volume is expected to decline [2] Brazilian Crop Planting Progress - In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Paraná state is the fastest, with a sowing rate of 31%, followed by Mato Grosso state with a planting rate of 18.9%. Most regions are waiting for rainfall, which is expected to resume in the second half of October [2] Brazilian October Export Forecast - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean export volume in October to be 7.31 million tons, the soybean meal export volume to be 2.06 million tons, and the corn export volume to be 6.46 million tons, all higher than last week's expectations [2]

Group 1 - Brazil's total soybean exports in the first four weeks of August reached 7.2578 million tons, compared to 8.0415 million tons in August of the previous year [1] - The average daily export volume for August was 453,600 tons, which represents a 24% increase compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August last year [1]