二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周CBOT豆类期货价格继续上涨。 一方面，市场预计中国对特朗普承诺的加购800万吨大豆将会认真执行，对美豆出口抱有较高的期待， 支撑较强。另一方面，EPA提交RVO提案，市场对上调生柴掺混量有所预期，给油脂市场带来支撑；最后，南 美南部地区的降水依然不足，可能对部分地区大豆单产形成损害，当然我们也应该看到巴西收割速度开始加 快，其丰产格局基本可以确定，且USDA年度展望论坛预计2026年美国大豆种植面积增加380万英亩等因素对 美豆价格形成压制。 总体看，美豆价格继续维持区间震荡的概率较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 美豆周度报告 所 期货研究 1.美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 图表1：美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 总体观点 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 空方逻辑 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 2、巴西进入收割阶 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract details**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3043, the highest price was 3055, the lowest price was 3025, the closing price was 3030, with a decline of 5 and a decline rate of -0.16%. The trading volume was 609,632, the open interest was 840,915, and the open interest change was -78,817. For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3010, the opening price was 3011, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2971, the closing price was 2978, with a decline of 32 and a decline rate of -1.06%. The trading volume was 166,459, the open interest was 553,792, and the open interest change was -8,090. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2828, the opening price was 2821, the highest price was 2826, the lowest price was 2770, the closing price was 2778, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.77%. The trading volume was 1,089,811, the open interest was 1,890,767, and the open interest change was 107,247 [6] - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract falling below 1100 cents. The main reasons were the US concerns about China's procurement progress. Although there was a large - order purchase of 460,000 tons over the weekend, it was reported that the previous claim of China's full - scale purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January might be postponed to February. Meanwhile, February is the season when Brazilian soybeans start to be exported, leading to a negative market sentiment. Additionally, there were no positive factors in the new South American crops. Brazil had basically completed most of its sowing, and above - average rainfall was expected in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, which was conducive to a high - yield expectation. Argentina was a bit dry, but it was still in the middle - late sowing stage and not yet in the critical weather - growth stage, exerting some downward pressure on the market [7] - **Domestic situation**: Domestic soybean meal followed the weak trend of CBOT soybeans but with a smaller decline. Due to the previously low overall crushing profit and the difficulty of significant cost reduction in the external market while China was still purchasing, the support below the soybean meal price was relatively strong. However, there was still inventory pressure, and additional positive factors such as weather or procurement were needed for the price to rise. The state reserve began to auction imported soybeans, and it was expected that the newly purchased US soybeans would be used for inventory rotation, so the sufficient supply situation would continue [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the price will be slightly weak but is unlikely to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA's December supply - demand report on the market [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA monthly report forecast**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the December crop supply - demand report at 1:00 on December 10, Beijing time. Analysts' average forecast shows that the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 302 million bushels, higher than the 290 million bushels estimated in the November 14 report. The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 122.41 million tons, higher than the 121.99 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.857 million tons, higher than the 4.85 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 175.35 million tons, higher than the 175 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. The USDA predicts that farmers will plant 95 million acres of corn in the 2026/27 season, less than the 98.7 million acres in the 2025/26 season. The soybean planting area is expected to increase from 81.1 million acres to 85 million acres. The USDA forecasts that the US 2026/27 corn ending stocks will be 2.019 billion bushels and the soybean ending stocks will be 314 million bushels [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 1: Market Review Futures Contract Data - **DCE M2601**: Pre-settlement price was 3128, opening at 3116, reaching a high of 3116, a low of 3079, and closing at 3088, down 40 or 1.28%. Trading volume was 1,278,955, with an open interest of 2,000,115, a decrease of 58,947 [6]. - **DCE M2509**: Pre-settlement price was 3088, opening at 3079, high of 3079, low of 3033, and closing at 3041, down 47 or 1.52%. Trading volume was 110,869, open interest was 182,385, down 44,763 [6]. - **DCE M2511**: Pre-settlement price was 3107, opening at 3081, high of 3094, low of 3048, and closing at 3055, down 52 or 1.67%. Trading volume was 128,296, open interest was 559,890, down 1,897 [6]. External Market and Weather Factors - The US soybean futures contract on the external market rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. ProFarmer started its annual crop field inspection this week. Feedback on soybeans showed that the pod numbers in most major producing areas were historically high, in line with the USDA's high-yield forecast for this year. However, weather is still variable. Currently, about 9% of the US soybean area is in drought, up from 3% last week, and rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks [6]. Group 2: Industry News ProFarmer Forecasts - In 2025, the average number of soybean pods in Illinois is expected to be 1479.22, compared to 1419.11 in the 2024 crop inspection. In Iowa's D1 region, it's expected to be 1279.25 (1108.76 in 2024), in D4 region 1376.15 (1254.09 in 2024), and in D7 region 1562.54 (1366.22 in 2024) [9]. USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending August 14, total US soybean export sales increased by 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Current market-year sales decreased by 0.57 million tons, down 98% from the previous week and 105% from the four-week average, while the market expected a range from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 300,000 tons. Next market-year sales increased by 1.1426 million tons, higher than the expected range of 400,000 - 1 million tons. Export shipments were 517,900 tons, down 3% from the previous week but up 9% from the four-week average. New sales for the current market year were 136,500 tons, and for the next market year were 1.1454 million tons [8][9][10]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as the ex-factory price of soybean meal, basis of the M09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][18]

期货热点追踪 巴西农业巨头下调巴西大豆单产预估并指出，巴西大豆能够实现丰产全靠…… 相关链接 ...