大豆贸易协议
Search documents
豆粕:美豆偏强,连粕反弹震荡,豆一:偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 06:39
Report Overview - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0011992 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 28, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a 15 - month high, due to market optimism about a potential trade agreement between the US and China. If no procurement commitment is made, soybean futures prices may fall. As of October 26, soybean harvest completion was 84%, slightly lower than 88% in the same period last year but 2 percentage points higher than the five - year average [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data of Soybean Meal/Soybean No.1 Futures - DCE Soybean No.1 2601: Closing price (day session) 4115 yuan/ton, up 27 (+0.66%); closing price (night session) 4129 yuan/ton, up 37 (+0.90%) [2] - DCE Soybean Meal 2601: Closing price (day session) 2975 yuan/ton, up 41 (+1.40%); closing price (night session) 2991 yuan/ton, up 25 (+0.84%) [2] - CBOT Soybean 01: 1093.5 cents/bushel, up 10 (+0.92%) [2] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: 306.5 dollars/short ton, up 8.8 (+2.96%) [2] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) is 2970 - 3020 yuan/ton, flat to +30 compared to the previous day. The spot basis is M2601 + 70, flat. For different periods, basis prices have different changes [2] - In East China, prices and basis of different enterprises and periods have various fluctuations, such as the price of Taizhou Huifu is 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 compared to the previous day [2] - In South China, prices and basis of different enterprises and periods also show different trends, like the price range is 2940 - 3060 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 compared to the previous day [2] Main Industry Data - Trading volume (10,000 tons/day) of soybean meal: 6.52 in the previous trading day, 11.85 in the two previous trading days [2] - Inventory (10,000 tons/week) of soybean meal: 100.44 in the previous week, 96.31 in the two previous weeks [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 28, CBOT soybean futures reached a 15 - month high. Market optimism stems from the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday, with hopes of a trade agreement and large - scale soybean procurement. Analysts estimate that as of October 26, soybean harvest completion was 84% [3] 3. Trend Intensity - Soybean Meal Trend Intensity: 0 - Soybean No.1 Trend Intensity: +1, referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the report day [3]
豆粕:隔夜美豆微涨、菜粕偏弱,连粕或震荡,豆一:偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight US soybeans slightly increased, rapeseed meal was weak, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; the soybean No.1 futures may have a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - On August 20, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the Chicago soybean meal market, and traders continued to closely monitor the results of the field inspection in the US Midwest [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 4036 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.25%), and 4024 yuan/ton during the night session, up 2 yuan (+0.05%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3160 yuan/ton during the day session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%), and 3145 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%) [1] - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1035.5 cents/bushel, up 2.25 cents (+0.22%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 297 dollars/short ton, up 1.3 dollars (+0.44%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was flat to up 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, ranging from 3080 to 3100 yuan/ton. The spot basis for delivery before August 24 was M2509 - 60, down 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - In East China, the basis for September was M2509 + 10, and the basis for October - November 2026 was M2601 + 60, remaining unchanged [1] - In South China, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 9.55 million tons per day, compared to 9.65 million tons per day in the previous two trading days [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 974,000 tons per week, compared to 960,900 tons per week in the previous two trading weeks [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On August 20, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the Chicago soybean meal market. Traders continued to closely monitor the results of the field inspection in the US Midwest [3] - On August 19, 2025, US soybean growers wrote to President Donald Trump, urging him to reach a trade agreement with China to ensure an important soybean purchase agreement [3] - The results of the second - day of the highly - watched Midwest crop inspection on August 19 showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than that in 2024, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years [3] - The basis quotation of soybeans shipped to the US Gulf via barges remained basically stable on August 20, after a decline due to insufficient Chinese purchases in the recent period. China has not yet ordered new - crop US soybeans [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3]