来源：市场资讯 （来源：一德期货） | 标的品种 | 9月30日 | 10月9日 | 假期涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:00报价 | 07:00报价 | | | 马棕油 | 4369 | 4546 | 4.05% | | COMEX黄金 | 3883.9 | 4039.9 | 4.02% | | COMEX铜 | 4.8810 | 5.0670 | 3.81% | | 德DAX 30 | 23775.12 | 24597.13 | 3.46% | | CBOT豆油 | 49.67 | 51.34 | 3.36% | | LmeS铝 | 2664.5 | 2750.5 | 3.23% | | LmeS锡 | 35125 | 36250 | 3.20% | | LmeS铜 | 10375.0 | 10701.0 | 3.14% | | COMEX白银 | 46.965 | 48.250 | 2.74% | | 美天然气 | 3.253 | 3.341 | 2.71% | | LmeS锌 | 2917.5 | 2995.0 | 2.66% | | CBOT大豆 | 1 ...

2025 年 09 月 29 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微涨，连粕或略有反弹 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3935 | +5（+0.13%） -2 3938 | （-0.05%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2937 | -24（-0.81%） 2936 | -13（-0.44%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1014 | +1.75（+0.17%） | | | | （美元/短吨） CBOT豆粕12 | 274.9 | n a +1.7（+0.62%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 2960～3000， 较昨+10或持平； M2601+0/+20/+50， | 现货基差M2601+30， 较昨-10； 持平； 11月M2601+30， 持平； 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market sentiment has recovered, showing a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling, despite facing factors such as insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina [1][3]. - The soybean meal and soybean markets have different price trends. The DCE soybean meal futures and spot prices have declined, while the CBOT soybean futures have a slight increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,878 yuan/ton during the day session, down 33 yuan (-0.84%), and 3,886 yuan/ton during the night session, up 10 yuan (+0.26%). The DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton during the day session, down 102 yuan (-3.37%), and 2,917 yuan/ton during the night session, down 37 yuan (-1.25%). The CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,012.5 cents/bushel, up 1.25 cents (+0.12%), and the CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at $277/short ton, down $3.2 (-1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal spot price is 2,980 yuan/ton (Yantai Yihai), with the basis M2601 + 0, up 30 yuan compared to the previous day. In East China, the price is 2,960 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with the basis M2601 - 20, remaining flat compared to the previous day. In South China, the price ranges from 2,950 to 2,980 yuan/ton, with the basis M2601 + 0, down 70 to 40 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 24.96 million tons per day, and the inventory was 117.04 million tons per week, showing an increase compared to the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 23, the CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling. The market was affected by insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina, but it rebounded technically at the end of the session [1][3]. - Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products, as well as beef and poultry on Monday to boost overseas sales and obtain dollars to support the peso. Chinese buyers then ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, which is a blow to US farmers [3]. - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered the US soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bushels to 52 bushels per acre and estimated the soybean production to be 4.17 billion bushels [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral state for the main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].

商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 15 日 究 豆粕：美豆偏强，连粕或反弹 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3959 | +33（+0.84%） | 3956 | +0（+0.00%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3070 | +4（+0.13%） | 3066 -21 | （-0.68%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1045.25 | +11.75（+1.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 288.3 | +0.6（+0.21%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3090， 较昨+10至+20； M2601+0， 持平； | 现货M2601-60， 10-1月M2601+40/+50/+80， | 持平； 9月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures showed a rebound after an excessive decline [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3911 yuan/ton during the day session, down 60 yuan (-0.13%), and up 8 yuan (+0.20%) to 3927 yuan in the night session; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and up 12 yuan (+0.39%) to 3076 yuan in the night session; CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1025 cents/bushel, down 5.5 cents (-0.53%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.7 dollars/short - ton, down 2.9 dollars (-1.00%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601; in East China, it was 3000 yuan/ton (from a factory in Taizhou), with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601; in South China, it was 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601 [1] - **Industrial Data**: The previous trading day's soybean meal inventory was 106.39 tons/week, compared to 101.49 tons/week two trading days ago; the previous trading week's trading volume was 14.48 tons/day [1] b. Macro and Industry News - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders adjusted their positions before the USDA's global supply - demand report on Friday, and there were continuous concerns about Chinese demand [3] - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high. They guess the US soybean yield may be lowered to 53.3 bushels per acre from 53.6 bushels last month, and the soybean production may be 4.271 billion bushels this year [3] - The US soybean growth condition declined for the second consecutive week, although it was still above the average level [3] - Due to the deadlock in trade negotiations, US soybean exports to China were suspended, and South American competitors filled the gap, causing US farmers to miss billions of dollars in exports to China during the peak sales season [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the report day [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The significant decline in the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on the soybean meal market [1]. - The soybean No.1 market shows a rebound and oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the overall atmosphere of the soybean market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3970 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.23%), and 3968 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and 3056 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged (+0.00%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1040 cents/bushel, down 13 cents (-1.23%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.3 dollars/short ton, down 5.4 dollars (-1.87%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 40/+50/+80, with some adjustments compared to the previous day; in East China, it is relatively stable; in South China, there are also various basis levels and adjustments [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.45 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.4 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 101.49 million tons per week, compared with 98.55 million tons two weeks ago [1]. Macro and Industry News - On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting the lowest level in a week and a half. The reasons include China's lack of interest in US new-season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest, which is beneficial for the growth of late-sown crops [3]. - The US - China trade negotiation has made limited progress recently, and China's hosting of a non - Western leaders' summit has further dampened the optimistic sentiment for the demand of new - crop soybeans [3]. - The increased rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may improve the growth of late - stage crops and strengthen the expectation of a bumper harvest, putting downward pressure on soybean prices [3]. - As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, down from 69% a week ago and the same as last year's 65%. Analysts had expected 68% before the report [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is +1, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts in the day session on the report day [3].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]