Commodity Prices - Aluminum futures increased from 1969.5 to 2161.8, a rise of 9.76% [3] - Lithium futures rose from 1584 to 1695.5, marking a 7.04% increase [3] - Brent crude oil decreased from 61.22 to 60.8, a decline of 0.69% [3] - Natural gas prices fell from 3.852 to 3.641, a drop of 5.48% [3] Stock Market Indices - The Hang Seng Index increased from 25630.54 to 26338.47, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [3] - The S&P 500 index decreased from 6896.24 to 6858.47, a decline of 0.55% [3] - The Nasdaq index fell from 23419.08 to 23235.629, a decrease of 0.78% [3] Foreign Exchange Rates - The US Dollar Index rose from 98.3 to 98.49, an increase of 0.19% [3] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate decreased from 1.1737 to 1.1716, a decline of 0.18% [3] - The CNH to US Dollar rate fell from 6.9843 to 6.9704, a decrease of 0.20% [3] Bond Yields - The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased from 104.4296 to 104.3711, a drop of 0.06% [3] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 112.6093 to 112.1875, a decline of 0.37% [3]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或调整 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | | | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | | | +15（+0.36%） 4140 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2790 | +51 （+1.86%） | 2783 +1 （+0.04%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1071.75 | -4.75（-0.44%） | | | | | | | n a | | | | | | 2-3月M2605+310/+340/+350,持平或 | | | 山东 | | | | | | 华东 （元/吨） | | | | | | | M2605+120； | 5月M2605+50； 5-7月M2605+20； | 6-9月M2609-60； | | | 华南 （元/吨） | M2605+330， 较昨-50； | ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4084 | +5（+0.12%） | 4090 | +7（+0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2735 | -10（-0.36%） | 2738 | +2 （+0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1049 | -3.25（-0.31%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 301.3 | -1.0（-0.33%） | n a | | | | | 较昨-20至-10； | 豆粕 （43%） | 现货基差M2605+370， 较昨-10； | 12-1月 | | | 山东 ...

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 豆一：抛储影响，偏弱震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2601 | 4090 -12 | （-0.29%） | （-0.95%） 4053 -39 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2756 | -7（-0.25%） | 2746 -20（-0.72%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1058.5 | -4.75（-0.45%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 301.8 | -4.5（-1.47%） | n a | | | | 较昨-10至持平； 3045～3120， | 豆粕 （43%） 现货基差M2605+370， | 较昨+10； 2026年1-3月 | | | （元/吨） 山东 | 持平； M260 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 吴光静 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价(日盘) | 涨跌 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE = 2601 ( = / 中) 4109 -1 (-0.02%) | | 4101 | -6 (-0. 15%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601(元/吨) 3012 -1 (-0.03%) | | 2996 | -21 (-0. 70%) | | | CBOT大豆01(美分/蒲) 1126. 5 +4 (+0. 36%) | | | | | | CBOT豆粕01(美元/短吨) 319. 8 +2.2 (+0.69%) | | | na | | | 豆粕(43%) | | | | | | 2990~3080. 较昨=10至持平:现货基差M2601+40. 较昨持平:12月 M2601+30/+60,持平:12-3月M2601+20/+50,持平;2026年1-3月M2601+30;2-4 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is "Oscillating" [2] - The investment rating for soybean meal is "Oscillating with the easing of Sino - US trade frictions" [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans rose on October 17 due to strong domestic demand and improved prospects for Sino - US trade negotiations. The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) also had their largest single - week gain in five weeks. Strong demand from US processing enterprises and record - high crushing rates alleviated concerns about insufficient Chinese demand. President Donald Trump's statement about a potential meeting with Chinese leaders further supported the market [2][4] - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - DCE Soybean 2601: The closing price in the day session was 4028 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (+0.25%); the night - session closing price was 4028 yuan/ton, unchanged (+0.00%) [2] - DCE Soybean Meal 2601: The day - session closing price was 2868 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan (-1.34%); the night - session closing price was 2895 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (+0.94%) [2] - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1021 cents/bushel, up 9.25 cents (+0.91%) [2] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 281 dollars/short ton, up 3.7 dollars (+1.33%) [2] Spot Prices - Shandong: The price of soybean meal was 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The spot basis was M2601 + 90, unchanged or up 10 yuan. Different time - period basis had different changes [2] - East China: The price of soybean meal at Taizhou Huifu was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The basis and its changes varied in different regions and time periods [2] - South China: The price of soybean meal was 2850 - 2990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or unchanged from the previous day [2] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 5.24 million tons per day, compared with 11.52 million tons two days ago [2] - The inventory of soybean meal was 104.67 million tons the week before [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 17, CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand and improved prospects for Sino - US trade negotiations. The market also had its largest single - week gain in five weeks [2][4] - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts in the day session on the reporting day [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal futures may have a slight rebound; Dalian soybean futures are expected to rebound and fluctuate [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, indicating the price fluctuation of the main - contract futures on the day - trading session of the report date [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3935 yuan/ton during the day session, up 5 (+0.13%), and 3938 yuan/ton at night, down 2 (-0.05%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2937 yuan/ton during the day session, down 24 (-0.81%), and 2936 yuan/ton at night, down 13 (-0.44%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1014 cents/bushel, up 1.75 (+0.17%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 274.9 dollars/short - ton, up 1.7 (+0.62%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) is 2960 - 3000 yuan/ton, with different basis levels compared to M2601 [1]. - In East China, prices vary by region and delivery time, such as 2900 yuan/ton in Taizhou Huifu and different basis levels compared to M2601 [1]. - In South China, the price is 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, also with different basis levels compared to relevant futures contracts [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.05 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 7.35 million tons/day two days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 117.04 million tons/week two weeks ago, and the data was not available for the previous week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 26, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher but fell for the second consecutive week. China's large - scale purchase of Argentine soybeans and insufficient purchase of US supplies, along with the impact of the Sino - US trade war and tariffs, led to the pressure on US soybean futures prices [1][3]. - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains at the beginning of the week, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China. Argentina resumed the export tax on Thursday [3]. - When asked about China's purchase of US soybeans, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said that the US should cancel the unreasonable tariffs on Chinese products [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]