2025 年 08 月 21 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微涨、菜粕偏弱，连粕或震荡 豆一：偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4036 | -10（-0.25%） | 4024 | +2 （+0.05%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3160 -1 | （-0.03%） | 3145 | -1 （-0.03%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1035.5 | +2.25（+0.22%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 297 | +1.3（+0.44%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨持平至+30； 3080～3100， | | 8月24日前提货M2509-60， | 较昨-10； 现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend; the soybean No.1 futures showed a rebound and oscillation trend [1]. - On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering, but the abundant global supply, including the Brazilian soybean harvest and strong US soybean production prospects, continued to suppress the upward momentum of soybean prices. Concerns about Sino - US trade tensions also limited market sentiment. The US soybean crop was still in good condition in early August, and the short - term weather in the US Midwest was expected to be mild and dry, with more mild and rainy weather possible in the next 6 - 15 days. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2509 closed at 4117 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4133 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.17%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3024 yuan/ton during the day session, up 20 yuan (+0.67%), and 3045 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 994.5 cents per bushel, up 6.5 cents (+0.66%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.1 dollars per short - ton, up 4.7 dollars (+1.68%) [1]. 2. Spot Prices - In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 2940 - 2960 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the futures contract M2509 and M2601, and price changes were mostly flat or up by 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the price was 2920 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, with different basis levels for different contract months [1]. - In South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis adjustments for different contract months [1]. 3. Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 15.5 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory data for the previous week was not available, and the inventory two weeks ago was 96.1 million tons [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was +1, and that of soybean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal futures adjusted and fluctuated. Dalian soybeans also adjusted and fluctuated [1]. - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to trade uncertainties and concerns about export demand. The export sales data on Thursday was at the lower end of market estimates, and favorable weather in the US Midwest boosted soybean production prospects, putting pressure on soybean prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4224 yuan/ton during the day session, up 18 yuan (+0.43%), and at 4208 yuan/ton during the night session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3021 yuan/ton during the day session, down 20 yuan (-0.66%), and at 3007 yuan/ton during the night session, down 18 yuan (-0.60%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1021.75 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.32%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 281.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was 2900 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan to unchanged compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or unchanged; in South China, it was 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.15 million tons/day, compared with 20.15 million tons/day in the previous two trading days; the inventory was not available, compared with 90.83 million tons/week in the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were trying to build positions before the August 1 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration, but were reluctant to significantly adjust their trading patterns due to ongoing Sino - US negotiations. The EU and the US may reach a trade framework agreement this weekend. Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Soybean Meal: Market sentiment is strong, and the market fluctuates strongly; Soybean No.1: Technically fluctuates strongly" [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of soybean meal is strong, and the market fluctuates strongly; the technical aspect of soybean No.1 fluctuates strongly [1] - The core factors affecting soybean prices in the near term are Sino-US trade dynamics and weather conditions [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Soybean No.1 2509: The daytime closing price was 4,232 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan (+1.34%); the night session closing price was 4,241 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (+0.66%) [1] - DCE Soybean Meal 2509: The daytime closing price was 3,086 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (+0.88%); the night session closing price was 3,092 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (+0.52%) [1] - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1,026 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents (-0.07%) [1] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 286.9 dollars/short ton, up 2 dollars (+0.70%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,930 - 2,950 yuan/ton, M2509 + 0/+30, basically flat to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - East China: The price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - South China: The price of soybean meal was 2,930 - 2,970 yuan/ton, M2601 + 90, down 20 yuan to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Main Industry Data - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.15 million tons/day, compared with 14.95 million tons/day two days ago [1] - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal was 90.83 million tons/week, compared with 84.29 million tons/week two days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 22, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The good weather in the US Midwest boosted the crop yield outlook, putting pressure on prices [3] - Sino-US trade negotiations are about to resume, which improves market sentiment and provides support [3] - The US Treasury Secretary announced that he will meet with the Chinese Finance Minister in Stockholm next week to discuss the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before August 12 to avoid the implementation of high tariffs [3] - The market is also waiting to see if the US will implement the tariff deadline for global trading partners on August 1 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is +1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime session on the report day) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week alleviating the pressure from previous high - temperatures, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also pressured the market. The soybean crop's growth pressure is expected to be reduced by the rainfall despite a brief high - temperature period in the mid - week in the US Midwest. The 8 - month 1 - day tariff deadline may intensify negative market sentiment as few countries have reached agreements with the US. As of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Bean 1 2509 closed at 4199 yuan/ton (+1, +0.02%) during the day session and 4188 yuan/ton (+12, +0.29%) during the night session. DCE Bean Meal 2509 closed at 3069 yuan/ton (+26, +0.85%) during the day session and 3061 yuan/ton (+2, +0.07%) during the night session. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1026.75 cents/bushel (-8.25, -0.80%), and CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 284.9 dollars/short ton (-3.9, -1.35%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of bean meal (43%) was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat; different basis prices were given for different months. In East China, the price was 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months. In South China, the price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, -10 to +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and Hainan Aosika had specific spot basis prices [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of bean meal was 14.95 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 14.31 million tons per day. The inventory data was not available, and the previous inventory was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The main reasons were the expected favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week to relieve the high - temperature pressure and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 20 was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal and bean 1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the report day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Concern about the high technical pressure level of soybean meal and guard against a pullback after a spike; soybean No. 1 is in a pullback adjustment [1] - On July 18, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive trading day, with the benchmark contract up 0.8% to a two - week high due to concerns about high - temperature weather threatening US crops and the expectation that US biofuel policies will boost domestic soybean oil demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2509 closed at 4189 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 yuan (-0.12%), and 4176 yuan at night, down 22 yuan (-0.52%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3056 yuan/ton during the day session, up 45 yuan (+1.49%), and 3067 yuan at night, up 24 yuan (+0.79%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1035 cents/bushel, up 7.75 cents (+0.75%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 288.8 dollars/short ton, up 5.3 dollars (+1.87%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal was 2910 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan from the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 or 40 yuan; in South China, it was 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 - 50 yuan [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.31 million tons/day, down from 16.81 million tons/day in the previous trading day; the inventory was not available, and the previous week's inventory was 84.29 million tons [1] Macro and Industry News - On July 18, CBOT soybean futures rose for three consecutive days. The market was worried that high - temperature weather might threaten US crops, and US biofuel policies would boost domestic soybean oil demand. Traders also focused on the strong expected demand for US soybean oil and closely monitored US weather conditions as August is the critical growth period for soybeans [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybean No. 1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soymeal, with a slight decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soymeal may fluctuate [1] - For soybeans, the technical aspect is strong, and the futures price may rebound and fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4149 yuan/ton during the day session, up 33 yuan (+0.80%), and 4159 yuan/ton during the night session, up 16 yuan (+0.39%); DCE soymeal 2509 closed at 2978 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1 yuan (+0.03%), and 2985 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%); CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1002.5 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.47%); CBOT soymeal 12 closed at 279.9 dollars/short ton, down 1.6 dollars (-0.57%) [2] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soymeal (43%) was 2860 - 2900 yuan/ton, with various basis prices for different months remaining flat; in East China, the price was 2830 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with some prices up 10 yuan compared to the previous day; in South China, the price was 2840 - 2940 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 to +10 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 5.65 million tons/day on the previous trading day, and the inventory was 84.29 million tons/week, compared to 15.4 million tons/day and 77.07 million tons/week two trading days ago [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 15, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.5%, due to improved US soybean crop conditions. The favorable weather in the US Midwest enhanced expectations of a good autumn harvest, suppressing market sentiment. As of July 13, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 70%, higher than last week's 66%, last year's 68%, and the market expectation of 67%, reaching the highest level since 2016. Traders are also concerned about the comprehensive tariff plan proposed by US President Donald Trump and its potential impact on US agricultural exports [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans was 0 on the reporting day, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower for the third consecutive day on July 10, mainly due to concerns about US trade policies, good weather in the Midwest, and speculative fund selling. The benchmark contract was down 1%. The report predicts that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal may fluctuate weakly, while the DCE soybean may fluctuate sideways [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,111 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.51%), and 4,108 yuan/ton during the night session, down 4 yuan (-0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,947 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.31%), and 2,947 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.24%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,007.25 cents/bushel, down 10.5 cents (-1.03%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 282.9 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,820 - 2,880 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China, it was 2,810 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), unchanged; in South China, it was 2,830 - 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged to up 10 yuan [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 74,000 tons/day, compared with 134,500 tons/day two days ago; the inventory was 770,700 tons/week, compared with 642,100 tons/week two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 9, CBOT soybean futures closed lower for the third consecutive day. The main reasons were concerns about US trade policies, good weather in the Midwest, and speculative fund selling. Traders were worried that the tariff dispute between the US and its major trading partners might damage overseas demand for US crops and exacerbate supply surplus. The lack of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China also made traders uneasy. The weather in the Midwest was generally good for soybean and corn growth, and there was a high probability of rainfall in the northern Midwest later this week [1][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is -1, indicating a weak trend; the trend intensity of soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day) [4].