2026 年 03 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵博轩 S0350525120003 zhaobx@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 大飞机系列（1）：海外民机发展启示录 ——国防军工行业专题研究 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/02/27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 国防军工 | 2.0% | 32.7% | 51.1% | | 沪深 300 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 18.7% | 相关报告 《国防军工事件点评：军工集团相继召开 2026 年 工作会议，奋力开创"十五五"高质量发展新局面 （推荐）*国防军工*赵博轩》——2026-01-24 《国防军工事件点评：多国意向采购"枭龙"战机， 世界百年变局重视军贸战略性机遇（推荐）*国防 军工*赵博轩》——2026-01-15 《国防军工事件点评："星链"获批再部署 7500 颗二代星；我国"南天门计划"科技主题引发关注 （推荐）*国防军工*赵博轩》——2026-01-12 最近一年走势 投资要点: 本篇报告解决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant sector rotation, particularly in the large aircraft sector, with major stocks like Changhe Aircraft Industries and others hitting the daily limit up, indicating a collective surge in the industry chain [1] Group 1: Market Movement - The large aircraft sector saw a collective rally with 13 leading stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector [1] - The surge in the large aircraft sector is attributed to recent disclosures from the National Social Security Fund, which revealed new investments in seven leading companies within the large aircraft industry chain [3][4] Group 2: Key Companies and Investments - Chaojie Co., a core supplier of fasteners for the C919 aircraft, was highlighted as a new investment by the social security fund, becoming its sixth-largest shareholder with 670,000 shares [3] - Xice Testing, the only private entity with full-chain aerospace testing qualifications, saw the social security fund increase its holdings to 3.5 million shares, making it the fourth-largest shareholder [3] - Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) Technology, a key player in the C919 engine supply chain, attracted new investments from major international banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS [3] - Hangya Technology, a leader in the domestic aviation precision forging blade sector, received new investments from the social security fund, becoming the eighth and ninth largest shareholders [4] - Hongdu Aviation, a core enterprise under AVIC, is the sole supplier of the C919's front and rear fuselage, with the social security fund acquiring 5 million shares [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) completed the compliance flight test for the C919, providing a positive evaluation that exceeded market expectations and facilitating its entry into the EU market [6] - The CJ-1000A domestic engine has completed extensive testing, resolving previous capacity constraints and is expected to receive certification by the second quarter of 2026 [6] - Predictions indicate that C919's annual production capacity could rapidly increase to 50-70 aircraft by 2027, with plans to raise production from 30 to 60 aircraft in 2026 [7] Group 4: Market Potential - The existing orders for C919 exceed 1,000 aircraft, representing a market scale of 650 billion yuan, with the potential to drive over 2 trillion yuan in value across the supply chain [7] - The Yangtze River Delta region has become a hub for the large aircraft industry, housing over one-third of the national aircraft supply chain suppliers [7] - By 2043, China's civil aviation fleet is projected to reach 10,061 aircraft, making it the largest single aviation market globally, with an expected reception of 9,323 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years [8]

Industry and Company Analysis Summary Industry Overview - The large aircraft industry, particularly the C919, is experiencing significant acceleration, marking a turning point in a trillion-yuan market. This is evidenced by a collective surge in stock prices within the large aircraft and aviation sectors, indicating a strong market response to recent developments in China's civil aviation and aerospace industries [1][2]. Key Developments 1. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has completed compliance flight tests for the C919, providing a core evaluation of "good performance and safety reliability," which signifies the entry of the domestically produced large aircraft into the global market [3]. 2. The successful completion of national energy bureau evaluations for several gas turbine innovation development demonstration projects, including the "Taihang 7," "Taihang 15," and "Taihang 110," indicates progress in China's gas turbine technology [3]. 3. The C919 has reportedly accumulated over 1,000 orders, translating to a market scale exceeding 650 billion yuan based on the Eastern Airlines procurement price of 653 million yuan. Including the maintenance and spare parts market, the total lifecycle market potential approaches one trillion yuan [3]. 4. The CJ-1000A domestic aircraft engine is expected to begin mass installation in 2027, which will alleviate supply chain bottlenecks and accelerate performance realization [3]. 5. Siemens Energy, a leading overseas gas turbine manufacturer, plans to increase its capacity from 17 GW in 2024 to over 30 GW by 2028-2030, reflecting robust global growth in the gas turbine industry [3]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Large Aircraft Sector**: Companies benefiting from the accelerated delivery of the C909 and C919, particularly those with high domestic production rates in structural components, include AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, Triangle Defense, Runbei Aerospace Technology, and Quanzhi Co., Ltd. [4]. 2. **Domestic Engine/Gas Turbine Sector**: Companies poised to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of domestic engines and gas turbines include AVIC Power, AVIC Control, AVIC Technology, Hangya Technology, Tunang Co., Ltd., Yingliu Technology, AVIC Aerospace, AVIC Materials, Parker New Materials, and Lian Ce Technology [4]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility of aircraft deliveries not meeting expectations and the slower-than-anticipated industrialization progress of domestic aviation engines and gas turbines [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aerospace industry maintains high prosperity, with both military and civilian sectors advancing simultaneously. The defense and military industry remains highly prosperous, driven by domestic demand and international military trade. The aviation sector is steadily growing, propelled by both military and civil aviation. The aerospace sector combines growth elasticity and development certainty [1][5]. - The Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index is a strong defense - military index that emphasizes aviation and aerospace, featuring stable R & D, stable revenue, and high industry elasticity. It has a pure military - industrial attribute, and its R & D investment is steadily increasing. In the long - term, its performance is similar to that of the CSI Military Industry Index, but it shows prominent short - term elasticity [1]. - The Huanguo Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry ETF (159267) closely tracks the underlying index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error. The fund manager and the fund management company have rich experience and strong strength [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aerospace Maintains High Prosperity, with Both Military and Civil Sectors Advancing Simultaneously 3.1.1 Defense and Military Industry Maintains High Prosperity, Driven by Domestic Demand and International Military Trade - China's defense budget and the US defense expenditure have been growing steadily in recent years, maintaining a high level of military prosperity. From 2023 - 2025, China's defense budget expenditure had a year - on - year growth rate of 7.2%. The US also increased its defense construction and equipment investment in recent years [5]. - Domestically, the construction of military mechanization and informatization during the 14th Five - Year Plan is ongoing, and the development of intelligence and unmanned systems is expected to become a new driving force for military construction during the 15th Five - Year Plan. Currently, domestic and foreign defense construction in intelligent and unmanned systems is progressing orderly [10]. - Internationally, the unstable situation in the Middle East and high per - capita military spending have maintained the activity of the military trade market. China's military strength has been continuously increasing, and its military trade net export volume has been rising steadily. In 2024, the net export volume reached 1.059 billion TIV, and China's military trade export accounted for about 4% of the global total military market [14][18]. 3.1.2 Both Military and Civil Aviation Drive the Steady Growth of the Aviation Sector - **Military Aviation**: The 15th Five - Year Plan is expected to inject new growth momentum. The demand from the air force is rising steadily, and that from the navy is growing rapidly. There is a large space for model replacement, and foreign trade exports are expected to become a new performance growth point. The market space for military aviation engines in the next ten years is expected to reach 1.212 trillion yuan [27][37]. - **Civil Aviation**: - **Domestic Large - scale Aircraft**: The large - scale aircraft industry has great strategic significance and potential economic value. It has a significant economic "multiplier effect." The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is accelerating the production of large - scale aircraft, and the C919 is expected to reach an annual production capacity of 150 aircraft within five years [40][43]. - **Low - altitude Economy**: It is a new format in the aviation industry, and its scale is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2026. With policy support, it is expected to become a new driving force for new - quality productivity [46]. 3.1.3 The Aerospace Sector Combines Growth Elasticity and Development Certainty - **Guidance Equipment**: It has great growth elasticity. The importance of advanced missiles and consumable shells is increasing, and the demand for related core materials, chips, components, etc., is accelerating. The demand for real - ammunition training and global local conflicts has increased the demand for related ammunition [55][59]. - **Commercial Aerospace**: The satellite industry chain shows a pyramid structure, with great potential in the blue - ocean market worth hundreds of billions. The market concentration of rocket launches is expected to increase, and the operation end has a large value share and significant head - concentration effect [61][68]. 3.2 Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index: A Strong Defense - Military Index that Emphasizes Aviation and Aerospace, Combining Stable R & D, Stable Revenue, and High Industry Elasticity 3.2.1 Index Compilation Method The Guozheng Aerospace Index was established to reflect the stock price changes of aerospace - related listed companies on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges. It selects large - market - capitalization stocks in the "Aerospace" tertiary industry of Guozheng [72]. 3.2.2 Index Weight and Market - Capitalization Distribution As of July 1, 2025, the index had 50 constituent stocks. The index weights are relatively dispersed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 49.42% and the top twenty accounting for 70.82%. The index focuses on the military - aviation equipment industry and has a pure military - industrial attribute [75]. 3.2.3 Index Industry/Theme Characteristics The constituent stocks of the Guozheng Aerospace Index are highly concentrated in the defense and military industry, with 48 stocks accounting for 98.20% of the weight. Compared with comparable indices, it has the highest concentration in the military industry, and its industry and theme attributes are the most prominent [83]. 3.2.4 Fundamental Characteristics The R & D investment of the Guozheng Aerospace Index has been rising steadily. By the end of 2024, its R & D investment ratio had risen to 4.53%. Compared with comparable indices, it has the strongest profit stability since 2022. In 2024, its net profit decreased by only about 5% compared with the end of 2021 [88][91]. 3.2.5 Index Investment Value Analysis In the long - term, the performance of the Guozheng Aerospace Index is similar to that of the CSI Military Industry Index. In the short - term, it shows high elasticity. During the market rebound period, its return performance is better than that of comparable military - industry indices [93][95]. 3.3 Huanguo Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry ETF (159267) The fund was established on July 21, 2025, and officially listed on August 1, 2025. The current fund manager is Liu Xuanzi. It closely tracks the underlying index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error, with a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% [1][99]. 3.4 Fund Manager and Fund Management Company Information 3.4.1 Fund Management Company Introduction Hua'an Fund Management Co., Ltd. was established in 1998 and is one of the first five fund management companies approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. As of December 31, 2024, the company's public - offering fund scale exceeded 650 billion yuan, and its non - monetary public - offering asset management scale exceeded 400 billion yuan. It manages 275 public - offering funds and has a total of 42 public - offering ETF products, with a cumulative scale of 135.071 billion yuan [100]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction Liu Xuanzi has a master's degree and 11 years of experience in the fund industry. She currently manages 18 passive index funds with a total scale of 5.009 billion yuan [102].