智能化无人化国防建设

Search documents
指数基金产品研究系列之二百五十:军民双线齐进,布局高景气航天航空:华安国证航天航空行业 ETF (159267)投资价值分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-05 12:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aerospace industry maintains high prosperity, with both military and civilian sectors advancing simultaneously. The defense and military industry remains highly prosperous, driven by domestic demand and international military trade. The aviation sector is steadily growing, propelled by both military and civil aviation. The aerospace sector combines growth elasticity and development certainty [1][5]. - The Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index is a strong defense - military index that emphasizes aviation and aerospace, featuring stable R & D, stable revenue, and high industry elasticity. It has a pure military - industrial attribute, and its R & D investment is steadily increasing. In the long - term, its performance is similar to that of the CSI Military Industry Index, but it shows prominent short - term elasticity [1]. - The Huanguo Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry ETF (159267) closely tracks the underlying index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error. The fund manager and the fund management company have rich experience and strong strength [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aerospace Maintains High Prosperity, with Both Military and Civil Sectors Advancing Simultaneously 3.1.1 Defense and Military Industry Maintains High Prosperity, Driven by Domestic Demand and International Military Trade - China's defense budget and the US defense expenditure have been growing steadily in recent years, maintaining a high level of military prosperity. From 2023 - 2025, China's defense budget expenditure had a year - on - year growth rate of 7.2%. The US also increased its defense construction and equipment investment in recent years [5]. - Domestically, the construction of military mechanization and informatization during the 14th Five - Year Plan is ongoing, and the development of intelligence and unmanned systems is expected to become a new driving force for military construction during the 15th Five - Year Plan. Currently, domestic and foreign defense construction in intelligent and unmanned systems is progressing orderly [10]. - Internationally, the unstable situation in the Middle East and high per - capita military spending have maintained the activity of the military trade market. China's military strength has been continuously increasing, and its military trade net export volume has been rising steadily. In 2024, the net export volume reached 1.059 billion TIV, and China's military trade export accounted for about 4% of the global total military market [14][18]. 3.1.2 Both Military and Civil Aviation Drive the Steady Growth of the Aviation Sector - **Military Aviation**: The 15th Five - Year Plan is expected to inject new growth momentum. The demand from the air force is rising steadily, and that from the navy is growing rapidly. There is a large space for model replacement, and foreign trade exports are expected to become a new performance growth point. The market space for military aviation engines in the next ten years is expected to reach 1.212 trillion yuan [27][37]. - **Civil Aviation**: - **Domestic Large - scale Aircraft**: The large - scale aircraft industry has great strategic significance and potential economic value. It has a significant economic "multiplier effect." The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is accelerating the production of large - scale aircraft, and the C919 is expected to reach an annual production capacity of 150 aircraft within five years [40][43]. - **Low - altitude Economy**: It is a new format in the aviation industry, and its scale is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2026. With policy support, it is expected to become a new driving force for new - quality productivity [46]. 3.1.3 The Aerospace Sector Combines Growth Elasticity and Development Certainty - **Guidance Equipment**: It has great growth elasticity. The importance of advanced missiles and consumable shells is increasing, and the demand for related core materials, chips, components, etc., is accelerating. The demand for real - ammunition training and global local conflicts has increased the demand for related ammunition [55][59]. - **Commercial Aerospace**: The satellite industry chain shows a pyramid structure, with great potential in the blue - ocean market worth hundreds of billions. The market concentration of rocket launches is expected to increase, and the operation end has a large value share and significant head - concentration effect [61][68]. 3.2 Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index: A Strong Defense - Military Index that Emphasizes Aviation and Aerospace, Combining Stable R & D, Stable Revenue, and High Industry Elasticity 3.2.1 Index Compilation Method The Guozheng Aerospace Index was established to reflect the stock price changes of aerospace - related listed companies on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges. It selects large - market - capitalization stocks in the "Aerospace" tertiary industry of Guozheng [72]. 3.2.2 Index Weight and Market - Capitalization Distribution As of July 1, 2025, the index had 50 constituent stocks. The index weights are relatively dispersed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 49.42% and the top twenty accounting for 70.82%. The index focuses on the military - aviation equipment industry and has a pure military - industrial attribute [75]. 3.2.3 Index Industry/Theme Characteristics The constituent stocks of the Guozheng Aerospace Index are highly concentrated in the defense and military industry, with 48 stocks accounting for 98.20% of the weight. Compared with comparable indices, it has the highest concentration in the military industry, and its industry and theme attributes are the most prominent [83]. 3.2.4 Fundamental Characteristics The R & D investment of the Guozheng Aerospace Index has been rising steadily. By the end of 2024, its R & D investment ratio had risen to 4.53%. Compared with comparable indices, it has the strongest profit stability since 2022. In 2024, its net profit decreased by only about 5% compared with the end of 2021 [88][91]. 3.2.5 Index Investment Value Analysis In the long - term, the performance of the Guozheng Aerospace Index is similar to that of the CSI Military Industry Index. In the short - term, it shows high elasticity. During the market rebound period, its return performance is better than that of comparable military - industry indices [93][95]. 3.3 Huanguo Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry ETF (159267) The fund was established on July 21, 2025, and officially listed on August 1, 2025. The current fund manager is Liu Xuanzi. It closely tracks the underlying index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error, with a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% [1][99]. 3.4 Fund Manager and Fund Management Company Information 3.4.1 Fund Management Company Introduction Hua'an Fund Management Co., Ltd. was established in 1998 and is one of the first five fund management companies approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. As of December 31, 2024, the company's public - offering fund scale exceeded 650 billion yuan, and its non - monetary public - offering asset management scale exceeded 400 billion yuan. It manages 275 public - offering funds and has a total of 42 public - offering ETF products, with a cumulative scale of 135.071 billion yuan [100]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction Liu Xuanzi has a master's degree and 11 years of experience in the fund industry. She currently manages 18 passive index funds with a total scale of 5.009 billion yuan [102].