新春将至，万象更新。在马年市场即将拉开序幕之际，我们邀请到了华商鑫安灵活配置混合基金经理陈 恒与我们分享他的投资哲学与对市场的思考。 截至2025年底，陈恒已具有17.4年证券从业经历（其中9.0年证券研究经历，8.4年证券投资经历），他 既做过卖方也做过买方，既做过研究也做过投资。从医药行业研究开始，持续拓展能力圈，逐步进阶到 全行业的投资，现任华商鑫安灵活配置混合、华商双驱优选灵活配置混合等基金基金经理。 陈恒 华商鑫安灵活配置混合基金经理 华商双驱优选灵活配置混合基金经理 行为学里决策风格分为两类"最优化决策"与"满意化决策"。最优化者追求绝对最优解，常因过度权衡而 陷入犹豫；满意化者则满足于"足够好"的方案，但可能因标准过低而错失机会。 在投资中，陈恒希望做一位追求最优的满意化投资者，在上述两种决策风格中取得平衡——不苛求完 美，亦不妥协于平庸，以严谨研究为基础，选择具备长期成长潜力、估值合理、风险可控的最优满意 解，旨在为投资者带来持续的投资回报。 在他看来，投资不仅比拼信息获取的速度，更考验认知的深度；不仅需要上涨市场中的胆识，更依赖贯 穿周期的平稳心态。 谈及行业选择，陈恒的投资方法论借鉴了中国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of accelerating rural revitalization in China, particularly through the development of industries that enrich the population, as highlighted by General Secretary Xi Jinping [1][5] - Various regions are leveraging local advantages to strengthen characteristic industries and promote comprehensive rural revitalization [1][5] Group 2 - The anti-corruption campaign remains a top priority, with a commitment to maintaining strategic determination and a high-pressure stance, ensuring continuous progress in the fight against corruption [2][6] - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and local supervisory bodies are dedicated to deepening the anti-corruption struggle with unwavering perseverance [2][6] Group 3 - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is experiencing rapid development in the low-altitude economy, with increased operations of drone logistics and accelerated intercity routes, indicating the emergence of a trillion-yuan market [1][8] - The construction of an integrated natural disaster monitoring system is planned for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aimed at enhancing comprehensive risk monitoring and early warning capabilities [1][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effective monitoring and prevention of geological disasters during the critical flood period in China, utilizing a combination of technological and human resources for disaster management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monitoring Methods - The monitoring methods for geological disasters are categorized into four types: "Sky," "Air," "Ground," and "Human" [2]. - "Sky" refers to satellite remote sensing, which allows individuals to check for unusual land features using satellite maps [2]. - "Air" involves aerial remote sensing through drones, which can provide detailed observations of hard-to-reach areas [2]. - "Ground" monitoring includes the use of instruments like crack meters and infrasound devices to detect signs of landslides and mudflows [2]. - "Human" monitoring relies on local residents and tourists to report any signs of geological changes [2]. Group 2: Effectiveness and Public Awareness - The implementation of these monitoring methods has led to significant achievements in disaster prevention, such as a successful evacuation in Danba County, Sichuan, after a warning about mudflow signs [3]. - Public awareness is crucial; individuals are advised to stay informed about weather forecasts and avoid dangerous areas during heavy rainfall [3].

Academic Context and Research Approach - The author supplements the historical methodology of the "Historical Materialism School" by emphasizing the importance of utilizing existing historical materials to construct new theories, even in the absence of new archaeological findings [4] - The author reflects on the question of why China exists and maintains a vast territory, influenced by the recent discourse on "China's resurgence" [5] - The author acknowledges the impact of the study of ancient Chinese autocratic regimes from a socio-economic perspective, while also recognizing the significance of analyzing historical perspectives on the concept of "state" [5][6] Key Concepts in the Book - The author argues that the early concept of "Tian" (heaven) and "Tianxia" (under heaven) differs significantly from later Confucian interpretations, suggesting a more religiously colored understanding in early contexts [8] - The author critiques mainstream historical interpretations that overlook the religious dimensions of ancient Chinese culture, emphasizing the need to recognize the state's engagement with religion through rituals like the "sacrificial rites" [7][9] - The book reinterprets key historical texts to clarify the evolution of the concept of "Tian" from the Shang to the Zhou dynasty, highlighting the transition from ancestor worship to a more universal deity [9][10] Evolution of State Religion - The author discusses the multi-faceted development of religious beliefs during the Warring States period, suggesting that the emergence of polytheistic practices was influenced by Hellenistic theology [11] - The author posits that the Qin dynasty's adoption of the title "Emperor" reflects a direct manifestation of state religion, contrasting it with the unchanging nature of the Zhou's supreme deity [11] - The author concludes that the formation of state sacrificial rites during the Han dynasty marks a significant point in the evolution of ancient Chinese religious thought, which continued to adapt in response to changing political landscapes [12] Dialogue and Discussion - The discussions following the presentations highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of the concept of "Tian" and its relationship with religion, emphasizing the historical context in which these ideas developed [13] - The dialogue also explores the impact of cultural exchanges on the evolution of ancient Chinese civilization, suggesting that cultural changes are often influenced by external factors [14] - The discussions further address specific issues raised in the book, including the monopolization of religious practices by political authorities and its implications for the understanding of state religion [15]