Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of US soybean futures is expected to continue weak and volatile due to the disappointment of trade - policy expectations and favorable weather for crops. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract is affected by the external market and shows a downward trend, with the spot price expected to maintain a bottom - grinding oscillation. [16][17] - For the live hog market, the short - term supply is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later stage, as the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the price upside is restricted by the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure. [17][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract declined by 0.58% to 2937 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract dropped by 0.42% to 14245 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract remained unchanged at 1048 cents/bushel. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the mid - week in the US Midwest, with temperatures near to above normal. In the west, there were local to sporadic showers from last Saturday to this Monday, and the temperature was above normal on Saturday, near to above normal on Sunday, and near normal on Monday. In the east, it was mainly dry last Friday, and there were local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Monday, with temperatures above normal from Saturday to Sunday and near to above normal on Monday. From Tuesday to Saturday, there will be local to scattered showers with temperatures near to above normal. Overall, the weather conditions in many areas are still basically favorable. [3][4] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased but remained at a high level. As of July 4, the crushing volume was 2330000 tons, down 160000 tons week - on - week, up 90000 tons month - on - month, up 340000 tons year - on - year, and up 530000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2350000 tons. [5] - On July 7, the import cost of US soybeans was 4583 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3870 yuan, down 2 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3686 yuan, down 2 yuan. [5] - On July 4, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume was 63400 tons, down 102500 tons from the previous day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 51400 tons, up 7300 tons, and the far - month basis sales volume was 12000 tons, down 109800 tons. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day. [5] - As of July 4, 2025, the average physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises was 7.91 days, up 0.16 days from June 27, an increase of 2.04% for the eighth consecutive week, and 3.69% higher than the same period last year. [6] - Based on a domestic crushing volume of 9.5 million tons in July, the soybean meal output will reach about 7.5 million tons, with a large surplus compared to the average monthly consumption of about 6.5 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills at the end of June was 510000 tons, and it is expected to continue to rise in late July, possibly reaching over 800000 tons. [6] - In June, due to the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the operating rate of oil mills remained high, and the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 10.11 million tons, a record high for a single month. It is expected that the high operating rate will continue in July, with a full - month crushing volume of about 9.5 million tons. [6] - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil exported a total of 13.4203 million tons of soybeans in 20 working days, with an average daily shipment of 671000 tons, a decrease of 3.86% compared to July last year. [7] - As of the week of July 4, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was 119.72 yuan per head, up from 50.25 yuan per head in the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 26.26 yuan per head, a decrease from a loss of 131.71 yuan per head in the previous week. [7] - In the week of July 3, the average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs was 123.52 kg, down 0.10 kg from the previous week, a slight decrease of 0.08% month - on - month, hitting a new low in more than four months, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.17%. [7] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 30.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3.2%. [7] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [10][13][14][15] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US soybean futures are likely to be weak due to unmet policy expectations and good weather. The domestic M09 contract is affected by the external market. The domestic soybean meal spot market has abundant supply, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16][17] - For live hogs, the short - term supply is tight, but the mid - term supply has pressure. The demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is strong, but the upside is limited by supply and demand factors in the later stage. [17][18]