Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply pressure in Yunnan is still there due to weather interference, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downwards. In Hainan, the tapping operations have gradually resumed, but there is still a forecast of precipitation. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a trend of de - stocking in general trade and inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. The price of rubber fluctuates greatly, weakening the purchasing enthusiasm of tire enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires has a small - scale fluctuation, with some room for increase but limited by the general order performance. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 955 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts have decreased [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the spot market have different changes. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Thai - standard STR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products has decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber has increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the upstream have different changes. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 has increased, while that of STR20 has decreased. The monthly import volume of technical - grade natural rubber has decreased, while that of mixed rubber has increased. The weekly opening rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have changed, with the all - steel tire opening rate up 2.09 percentage points and the semi - steel tire opening rate down 2.28 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have increased. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,275 million pieces, up 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,697 million pieces, up 174 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying have increased, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have decreased [2]. Industry News - The rainfall in the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber has decreased compared with the previous period, and the impact on tapping has weakened. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. The inventory in the bonded area has increased, while that in general trade has decreased. The入库 rate and出库 rate of warehouses have different changes [2]. View Summary - The supply pressure in Yunnan still exists, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The tapping operations in Hainan have gradually resumed, but there is still a forecast of precipitation. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a trend of de - stocking in general trade and inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. The purchasing enthusiasm of tire enterprises has weakened, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires has a small - scale fluctuation, with limited room for increase [2]. Tip to Follow - Pay attention to the opening rate data of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainy weather has led to pressure on raw material supply and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has restricted tapping operations, and local processing plants have maintained price - increased raw material purchases [2]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses are experiencing inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate increasing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage are still low, and the overall storage rate has decreased, while some tire companies have continued to replenish stocks slightly, and previous orders are being picked up, leading to an increase in the overall delivery rate [2]. - This week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate has fluctuated slightly. Some large - scale semi - steel tire enterprises have about a week of maintenance, which has affected the overall production capacity utilization rate. The resumption of work at all - steel tire maintenance enterprises has driven up the all - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a small upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as maintenance enterprises resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,100 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,635 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,490 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 is - 1000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 9 - 10 is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 127,556 lots, up 1363 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 56,239 lots, up 212 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,683 lots, down 758 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9065 lots, up 15 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 179,070 tons, down 1130 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 46,569 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 835 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,843 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 353 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 62.5 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 58.9 Thai baht/kg, up 0.57 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.78%, up 0.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.64%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.41%, down 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.43%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 10th to August 16th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. Areas north of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and most other areas have low - to - medium rainfall, which has a greater impact on tapping. Areas south of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, which also has a greater impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The storage rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the delivery rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the delivery rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday is from a third - party source and for reference only [2].