| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17030 | 715 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13795 | 615 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 200 | 80 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | -10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3235 | 100 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 162068 | 21833 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 47522 | -263 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37237 | -3430 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7717 | 282 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50601 | -202 | | | | 现货市场 | | 16800 | | 16600 | | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16575 | 240 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13445 | 215 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 90 | -15 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3130 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 162081 | 10137 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 49041 | 500 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37324 | -1689 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8513 | 612 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50803 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 16400 | 200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 16245 95 | 165 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 13150 -50 | 100 -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3095 | 65 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 150270 | 4240 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 48669 | -1481 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -36562 | -423 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8807 | 387 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 500 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 51004 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 16000 | 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16350 | -100 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16175 | -210 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13135 | -165 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 110 | -10 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -35 | -15 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3040 | -45 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 150013 | -9904 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 50827 | -544 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -38712 | 2379 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8112 | 1527 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 111570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50399 16100 | -201 200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16600 | 100 | | | 泰标STR2 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16385 | 205 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13300 | 165 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -10 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -20 | 20 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3085 | 0 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 159917 | 6412 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51371 | 28021 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -41091 | 965 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9639 | -1244 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 111570 | 700 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50600 | -303 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 16100 1945 | 200 上海市场越南3L(日 ...

线建议在16000-16500区间交易，nr2603合约建议在12900-13350区间交易。 免责声明 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-01-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 16360 80 | 155 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 15 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 13190 -30 | 105 -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3170 | 50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 184241 | 8144 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 44184 | -4888 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -44965 | -853 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8922 | 443 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 110970 | 500 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 55843 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and the total supply is shrinking. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a slight destocking trend, with the bonded warehouse destocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates, with the semi - steel tire's capacity utilization increasing slightly and the full - steel tire's decreasing slightly. It is expected that the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will run weakly and steadily. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 15,850 - 16,500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,205 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,085 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are 176,097 hands and 49,072 hands respectively, down 5,119 hands and 5,134 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are - 44,112 and - 9,365 respectively, down 631 and 341 respectively. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 110,470 tons and 55,843 tons respectively, up 600 tons and 504 tons respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,945 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 355 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,080 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,550 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 465 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.62%, down 2.9 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.56%, up 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.8 days, up 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 48.53 days, up 0.61 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.63%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.92%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.92%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2]

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 16230 70 | -85 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -25 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 13085 -40 | -10 -10 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3145 | -75 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 181216 | -8919 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 54206 | -5672 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -43481 | 3350 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9024 | -339 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 109870 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 55339 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 15950 195 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased compared to the previous period. The inventory accumulation rate of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises are expected to continue to stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly compared to the previous week. In the short term, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall device production schedule is expected to remain stable. The all - steel tire enterprises still have the phenomenon of controlling production to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 183,011 lots, up 1,899 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 60,827 lots, down 1,231 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 48,754 lots, down 1,397 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,599 lots, up 204 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 55,339 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,600 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 250 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 945 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,163 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 428 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 59.49 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 57.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.3%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.13%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.57%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.58%, up 0.91 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the non - tapping period, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation rate showing little change compared to the previous period. African rubber is the main type of overseas shipments arriving at the port. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation rate has narrowed. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month. The short - term operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,745 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,112 lots, up 2,136 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 62,058 lots, down 1,666 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 47,357 lots, down 1,794 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,803 lots, up 357 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 55,742 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,161 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 546 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.59 Thai baht/kg, down 0.66 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.12%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.04%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.68%, down 0.4 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.67%, down 0.41 percentage points [2] Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2]