天然橡胶产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15760 -85 | -125 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 5 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 12615 -30 | -175 -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3145 | 50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 137392 | -1722 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51988 | -6908 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -33175 | -876 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9834 | -1489 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 177270 | -20 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 45662 14900 | 1310 -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15050 | -50 | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-08-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15885 | -20 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12790 | 5 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -90 | 15 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -20 | 10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3095 | -25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 139114 | 6184 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 58896 | 1690 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32299 | 232 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8345 | -1124 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 177290 | -470 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 44352 14950 | -303 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15100 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The utilization rate of domestic tire production capacity fluctuated slightly last week. Some large semi-steel tire enterprises had about one - week maintenance, dragging down the overall enterprise production capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, driving up the full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a slight upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,000 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both types of rubber changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex and Vietnam 3L increased by 200 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers decreased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of齐鲁石化's butadiene - styrene and cis - butadiene rubbers remained unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the price of 20 - number rubber in Qingdao market decreased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber) decreased, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 increased, while that of STR20 decreased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly opening rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires changed [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying decreased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options decreased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 17 - 23, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.50%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, with the bonded warehouse accumulating inventory and the general trade warehouse continuing to reduce inventory. The arrival and warehousing of overseas goods increased, but the tire enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply pressure in Yunnan is still there due to weather interference, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downwards. In Hainan, the tapping operations have gradually resumed, but there is still a forecast of precipitation. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a trend of de - stocking in general trade and inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. The price of rubber fluctuates greatly, weakening the purchasing enthusiasm of tire enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires has a small - scale fluctuation, with some room for increase but limited by the general order performance. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 955 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts have decreased [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the spot market have different changes. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Thai - standard STR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products has decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber has increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the upstream have different changes. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 has increased, while that of STR20 has decreased. The monthly import volume of technical - grade natural rubber has decreased, while that of mixed rubber has increased. The weekly opening rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have changed, with the all - steel tire opening rate up 2.09 percentage points and the semi - steel tire opening rate down 2.28 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have increased. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,275 million pieces, up 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,697 million pieces, up 174 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying have increased, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have decreased [2]. Industry News - The rainfall in the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber has decreased compared with the previous period, and the impact on tapping has weakened. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. The inventory in the bonded area has increased, while that in general trade has decreased. The入库 rate and出库 rate of warehouses have different changes [2]. View Summary - The supply pressure in Yunnan still exists, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The tapping operations in Hainan have gradually resumed, but there is still a forecast of precipitation. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a trend of de - stocking in general trade and inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. The purchasing enthusiasm of tire enterprises has weakened, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires has a small - scale fluctuation, with limited room for increase [2]. Tip to Follow - Pay attention to the opening rate data of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainy weather persists, leading to a tight supply of raw materials and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, precipitation disrupts the tapping operations, resulting in limited fresh latex output. Local rubber processing plants face difficulties in raw material procurement [2]. - The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports continues to decline, with bonded warehouses accumulating inventory and general trade warehouses showing further de - stocking. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and most are focused on inventory digestion [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance schedules, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The resumption of work at full - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization as maintenance - affected enterprises resume work, but overall orders are average, and production control by enterprises will continue to limit the increase [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,875 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,185 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 134,968 lots, up 1,513 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 58,095 lots, down 399 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,237 lots, down 1,112 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,844 lots, up 1,087 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 179,570 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,838 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 148 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.28 Thai baht/kg, down 1.87 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 49.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.9%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.4%, down 0.47 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.36%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 17 - 23, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red - marked areas with heavy rainfall are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red - marked areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 616,700 tons, down 3,100 tons or 0.50% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 76,900 tons, up 2.12%, and the general trade inventory is 539,800 tons, down 0.87% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the ru2601 contract is to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,200, and for the nr2510 contract, it is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000. As maintenance - affected enterprises resume operations, there is still a small upward space for production capacity utilization, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprises' production control will continue, which will limit the increase in overall production capacity utilization [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15,820 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 1,035 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 133,455 lots, down 1,052 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 58,494 lots, up 710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,125 lots, down 1,030 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,931 lots, down 477 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 179,590 tons, down 340 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 920 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,918 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 268 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 63.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.81%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.88%, up 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.19%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.19%, up 0.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 17th to August 23rd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decrease of 0.87%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainy weather has led to pressure on raw material supply and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has restricted tapping operations, and local processing plants have maintained price - increased raw material purchases [2]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses are experiencing inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate increasing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage are still low, and the overall storage rate has decreased, while some tire companies have continued to replenish stocks slightly, and previous orders are being picked up, leading to an increase in the overall delivery rate [2]. - This week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate has fluctuated slightly. Some large - scale semi - steel tire enterprises have about a week of maintenance, which has affected the overall production capacity utilization rate. The resumption of work at all - steel tire maintenance enterprises has driven up the all - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a small upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as maintenance enterprises resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,100 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,635 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,490 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 is - 1000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 9 - 10 is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 127,556 lots, up 1363 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 56,239 lots, up 212 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,683 lots, down 758 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9065 lots, up 15 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 179,070 tons, down 1130 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 46,569 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 835 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,843 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 353 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 62.5 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 58.9 Thai baht/kg, up 0.57 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.78%, up 0.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.64%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.41%, down 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.43%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 10th to August 16th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. Areas north of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and most other areas have low - to - medium rainfall, which has a greater impact on tapping. Areas south of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, which also has a greater impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The storage rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the delivery rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the delivery rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday is from a third - party source and for reference only [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses showed inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate expanding month - on - month. The inflow of overseas goods to the port remained low, the overall inflow rate decreased month - on - month, while some tire companies continued to replenish goods slightly, and the previous orders were gradually picked up, leading to an increase in the overall outflow rate month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some all - steel tire enterprises resumed work and moderately increased production, but some enterprises still scheduled maintenance, restricting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation range [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 3,195 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 125,703 lots, up 790 lots; the position of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 54,903 lots, down 855 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 36,925 lots, up 1,705 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 9,080 lots, up 439 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 180,240 tons, up 4,800 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange were 46,166 tons, up 3,326 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,853 yuan/ton, up 183 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 188 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.96 Thai baht/kg, up 0.76 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 48.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 20.58%, up 0.08 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 17.47%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 10th to 16th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on tapping operations. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which also increased the impact on tapping operations [2]. - As of August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inflow rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outflow rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inflow rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outflow rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber产区 is in the tapping season. In the Yunnan产区, continuous rainfall has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high - fluctuating. In the Hainan产区, increased precipitation has restricted tapping in some areas, leading to a month - on - month decrease in raw material output. Supported by the rise in futures and spot markets, some processors are more eager to purchase raw materials. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly last week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,150 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,755 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,620 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 985 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,913 lots, up 10,616 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55,758 lots, up 33,715 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,630 lots, down 4,018 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,519 lots, down 1,800 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 175,440 tons, down 840 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,840 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,055 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,670 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 173 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.45 days, up 0.81 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.05%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.22%, down 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 10 - 16, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is in a low - to - medium state, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which also has an increased impact on tapping operations [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory is 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao's natural rubber sample decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing recently, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, with the overall inbound rate declining month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire companies to replenish at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly last week due to maintenance in some enterprises, and the overall production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires also declined. This week, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will boost the production capacity utilization rate, but due to new maintenance arrangements in some enterprises, the overall production capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited room for improvement. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,600 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,495 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,175 yuan/ton, up 930 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 105,295 lots, up 35,859 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,101 lots, down 3,264 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,155 lots, up 1,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,110 lots, up 209 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 176,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,034 tons, up 303 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,270 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 995 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,140 yuan/ton, down 875 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,596 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 276 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.64 days, down 0.91 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.36%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.2%, down 0.03 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.74%, down 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.74%, down 0.39 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 3rd to August 9th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, most areas had low precipitation, reducing the impact on rubber tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the rainfall in most areas was moderate, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 3rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, down 0.86 million tons, a decrease of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47%. [2] - As of July 31st, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, down 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and 10.19 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, down 2.97 percentage points month - on - month and 0.20 percentage points year - on - year. [2]