1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,300 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,665 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,869; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 32,309 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,180 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,015, with a week - on - week increase of 288; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,586, with a week - on - week increase of 2,184 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with no change; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 280; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 95 [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,943 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 144; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 278 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 [2] - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 79.55 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 80 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 103,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.12; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.93%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.48%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.42 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and about an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased. The bonded warehouse has shown de - stocking, and the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate inventory. The total port inbound volume has slightly increased. The de - stocked rubber types in the bonded warehouse are mainly old Indonesian standard rubber and African rubber. Recently, rubber prices have fluctuated unstably, and downstream tire factories have made cautious replenishments for the rigid demand of mixed rubber, resulting in a slight increase in the total inventory [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises mainly fluctuated within a narrow range. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly tasks, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but some enterprises had short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which slightly dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,150 - 16,880 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,100 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates unsteadily, and downstream tire factories replenish their stocks of mixed rubber cautiously [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates narrowly. Some enterprises strive to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 110 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 81,467 lots, a decrease of 10,483 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 43,043 lots, a decrease of 4,390 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,787 lots, an increase of 3,667 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,292 lots, a decrease of 674 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm, and it is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The operating rates are expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,460 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,635 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,068 hands to 102,159 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreased by 4,368 hands to 51,030 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 704 to - 30,970, and that of the 20 - number rubber is - 213 [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber are 43,949 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, and that of Vietnamese 3L is 16,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,005 US dollars/ton, and that of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,520 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,470 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, and that of butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.95 tons, and that of mixed rubber decreased by 10.31 tons to 13.96 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, and that of semi - steel tires is 78.25% [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 2.82 days to 41.09 days, and those of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.75 days to 44.59 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 458,000 pieces to 813,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.507 million pieces to 3.461 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset decreased by 0.01%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.06% to 19.39% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.77% to 31.4%, and that of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.77% to 31.41% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% from January 2025 and about 8% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume from January to February exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.18% [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has started to accumulate again, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing an increase. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to experience a slight inventory build - up in the short term [2]. - Last week, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly. The semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, their capacity utilization rates remain at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has also slightly increased, and the price increase news has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, the operating rates of some enterprises are expected to remain high, but there may be flexible production adjustments by individual enterprises [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16300 - 16850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13565 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 255 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 107227 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4547 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55398 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2164 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30266 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3929 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10117 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 323 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125410 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44554 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16600 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1990 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1985 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 845 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13651 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 153 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 86 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 102 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 75.45 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.55 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 76 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 32 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.09 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.59 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 32.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.18%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of Chinese semi - steel tires was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is steadily advancing the tapping process, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing an increase. The total inbound volume at the port has increased significantly month - on - month. Although downstream tire factories replenish stocks moderately at low prices, the increase in inbound volume exceeds the outbound volume, and the port's total inventory has returned to the accumulation rhythm. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate inventory slightly in the short term [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders. Coupled with the tight supply of domestic sales, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. Driven by price increase news, enterprises' shipments are concentrated, and the shortage phenomenon is obvious, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. As the end of the quarter approaches, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but there may be flexible production scheduling adjustments by individual enterprises. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,900 - 13,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,310 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 255 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts is - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the spread between the 20 - number rubber 5 - 6 contracts is - 55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 175 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 111,774 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,117 hands; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 57,562 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,141 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 34,195, with a month - on - month increase of 3,937; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,794, with a month - on - month decrease of 253 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 45,159 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 604 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,955 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,950 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 915 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,366 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 311 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 240 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 73.9 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 70 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 75.5 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.59 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.37%, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 32.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% year - on - year decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2]. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [2]. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of China's semi - steel tires was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The opening rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Semi-steel tire enterprises were concentrated on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, the capacity utilization rate remained at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. Driven by price increase news, enterprises' shipments were concentrated, and the shortage phenomenon was obvious, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises aimed to complete quarterly tasks, and with unfulfilled pre-price increase orders, the opening rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,900 - 13,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,145 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 rubber was 13,055 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 rubber was -100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 rubber was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 116,891 lots, up 391 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 rubber was 58,703 lots, down 235 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -38,132 lots, down 3,126 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 rubber was -9,541 lots, down 390 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 125,440 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 rubber in the exchange were 45,763 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state-owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,955 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,950 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,030 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis-butadiene BR9000 was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -145 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non-standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was -920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The price of 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,366 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 rubber was 311 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 73.9 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 70 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 74.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -32 US dollars/ton, down 19 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all-steel tires was 70.72%, up 0.5 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi-steel tires was 78.25%, up 0.54 percentage points. The inventory days of all-steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.09 days, down 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi-steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.59 days, up 0.75 days. The monthly output of all-steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi-steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.12%, up 0.12 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.09%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 28.37%, down 1.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 28.37%, down 1.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy truck industry in February 2026 both year-on-year and month-on-month was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival month. As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a 0.8 - ton increase from the previous period, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the production schedules of each tire enterprise have basically returned to the normal level, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is still facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 133,055 lots, a decrease of 1,814 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 61,564 lots, a decrease of 2,826 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 45,830 lots, an increase of 453 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,457 lots, an increase of 481 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 123,980 tons, an increase of 3,180 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 48,787 tons, a decrease of 504 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 74.1 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.53 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 69.55 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.7 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 72.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.08%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.15%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 32.07%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 32.06%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port (bonded and general trade) was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The inventory in the bonded area was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the inventory in general trade was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81% [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区 is in the seasonal supply off - season with firm raw material prices. Recently, bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory, while general trade warehouses reduced inventory, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory. - Overseas has entered the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar standard rubber at the port is decreasing, synthetic rubber is strengthening, and after the Spring Festival, tire enterprises resumed production, leading to an increase in natural rubber buying and an increase in the outbound volume of Qingdao Port warehouses, with a significantly narrowed inventory accumulation compared to the previous period. - This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly, and the current production scheduling of each tire enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, supporting the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The internal and external sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, with relatively average overall shipment performance, while the domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory reduction rhythm has accelerated. - Due to the uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions for tire enterprises, and there is an expectation of a slight decline. Enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of internal and external sales according to their own order situations. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. - The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 141,956 lots, a decrease of 1,654 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 68,133 lots, an increase of 719 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 44,771 lots, a decrease of 3,299 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,101 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 120,540 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,055 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 15,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,038 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 318 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 72.4 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.51 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 70.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.4 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.75%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.65%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.44%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.03%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline of the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, a growth rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, a growth rate of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas have entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. Recently, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, and the total inventory has slightly increased. Overseas has entered the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber has shown a decreasing trend. The synthetic rubber has strengthened due to the continuous tension in the Middle East situation. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises have resumed production, leading to an increase in natural rubber buying, and the inventory accumulation rate at Qingdao Port warehouses has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly week - on - week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and there are still obstacles to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 17,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,720 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,610 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,973 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 67,414 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,665 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 41,472 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,284 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,072 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,049 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 120,540 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,795 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,045 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,245 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,038 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 318 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes was 71.89 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 69.8 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 36.73 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.47 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.82%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons, with a growth rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, with a growth rate of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, with a decline rate of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points. The bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory, the general trade warehouses reduced inventory, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.33 percentage points. Most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区进入季节性供应淡季，原料价格坚挺，海外进入季节性低产季，美金标胶到港呈现缩减趋势，中东局势持续紧张，合成橡胶走强，叠加节后胎企复工复产，天然橡胶买盘增加，青岛港口仓库出库量增加，累库幅度较上期明显缩窄 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业开工率环比明显回升，目前多数企业已恢复至常规水平，提振样本企业产能利用率大幅走高，但中东地缘冲突升级，中东地区订单出货阻力加大，或将限制轮胎企业产能利用率提升幅度 [2] - ru2605合约短线预计在16600 - 17500区间波动，nr2605合约短线预计在13400 - 14000区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价为16895元/吨，环比涨60元/吨；20号胶主力合约收盘价为13610元/吨，环比涨40元/吨 [2] - 沪胶5 - 9差为120元/吨，环比涨35元/吨；20号胶4 - 5价差为 - 145元/吨，环比降20元/吨 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差为3285元/吨，环比涨20元/吨 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量为144455手，环比降5268手；20号胶主力合约持仓量为65473手，环比降424手 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓为 - 47989手，环比降4441手；20号胶前20名净持仓为 - 8645手，环比降343手 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单为120540吨，环比增3000吨；20号胶交易所仓单为50601吨，环比增202吨 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶价格为16950元/吨，环比涨350元/吨；上海市场越南3L价格为17050元/吨，环比涨250元/吨 [2] - 泰标STR20价格为2025美元/吨，环比涨20美元/吨；马标SMR20价格为2020美元/吨，环比涨20美元/吨 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶价格为15720元/吨，环比涨200元/吨；马来西亚人民币混合胶价格为15670元/吨，环比涨200元/吨 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502价格为13600元/吨，环比持平；齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000价格为14300元/吨，环比涨900元/吨 [2] - 沪胶基差为55元/吨，环比涨290元/吨；沪胶主力合约非标准品基差为 - 1115元/吨，环比降80元/吨 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶价格为13909元/吨，环比涨142元/吨；20号胶主力合约基差为299元/吨，环比涨102元/吨 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价为70.61泰铢/公斤，环比降0.28泰铢/公斤；胶片市场参考价为67.61泰铢/公斤，环比降0.09泰铢/公斤 [2] - 泰国生胶胶水市场参考价为69泰铢/公斤，环比持平；杯胶市场参考价为52.95泰铢/公斤，环比涨0.85泰铢/公斤 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润为138.6美元/吨，环比涨13.6美元/吨；STR20理论生产利润为 - 17美元/吨，环比降11美元/吨 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量为19.93万吨，环比增3.05万吨；混合胶月度进口量为39.63万吨，环比增9.41万吨 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢胎开工率为65.9%，环比增36.73个百分点；半钢胎开工率为74.03%，环比增39.47个百分点 [2] - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数期末值为45.79天，环比降1.25天；半钢轮胎山东库存天数期末值为43.1天，环比降0.99天 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量为1271万条，环比降15万条；半钢胎当月产量为5968万条，环比增129万条 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率为25.79%，环比降0.29个百分点；标的历史40日波动率为21.95%，环比增0.34个百分点 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率为27.76%，环比增0.38个百分点；平值看跌期权隐含波动率为27.77%，环比增0.4个百分点 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 2026年2月我国重卡市场销售7.5万辆左右，环比2025年1月下降近3成，比上年同期下滑约8%；1 - 2月累计销量超过18万辆，同比增长约17%，2月下降主要是春节月季节性波动 [2] - 截至2026年3月8日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量68.04万吨，环比增加0.05万吨，增幅0.07%，保税区库存11.96万吨，增幅1.27%，一般贸易库存56.09万吨，降幅0.18%，总库存小幅累库 [2] - 截至3月5日，中国半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为74.53%，环比增43.76个百分点，同比降5.28个百分点；全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为65.38%，环比增39.34个百分点，同比增3.33个百分点 [2] 3.7 Weather Impact - 未来第一周（2026年3月8日 - 2026年3月14日）天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北红色区域暂无，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响略有增强；赤道以南红色区域主要集中在马来西亚及印尼南部地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强 [2]