| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15415 | 385 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12465 | 365 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 60 | 60 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | 10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2950 | 20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 140720 | -378 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 34149 | -52 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -22185 | 3236 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11125 | -482 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 145390 | -4420 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 41632 | -402 | | | | 现货市场 | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 350 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15250 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short - term. The recent inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. Demand - wise, last week tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels, with overall operating levels slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15375 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2945 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 increased. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 1790 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber decreased by 505 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1860 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers were unchanged. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 were unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the basis of 20 - number rubber increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber such as smoked sheets and films decreased, while those of glue and cup rubber were unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires changed slightly [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying changed, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2]. Industry News - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, and that in general trade decreased. The entry and exit rates of warehouses changed. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises changed. The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season, with different situations in Yunnan and Hainan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, rainfall disruptions still exist, and with strong purchasing demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather is favorable for tapping operations, and raw materials are being produced normally. Although Typhoon "Hikaa" is approaching, local processing plants are not actively competing for raw materials due to average orders and profit margins. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse is still reducing inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments are arriving at the port and being warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of winter tires in the semi - steel tire segment are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall production. However, the demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still face shortages, overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises' inventories may increase. To relieve pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract... (The text is incomplete here) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12465 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 153328 lots, with a daily decrease of 1131 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54216 lots, with a daily decrease of 4506 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26821 lots, with a daily decrease of 684 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11684 lots, with a daily decrease of 75 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 155830 tons, with a daily increase of 810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44856 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14780 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14730 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 132 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.73 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 151 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, with an increase of 0.89 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.13 days, with a weekly increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.02 days, with a weekly increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.06%, with a daily decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.41%, with a daily decrease of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.95%, with a daily increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.97%, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 21st to September 27th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, which has an increasing impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there are no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has a decreasing impact on tapping operations. As of September 21st, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory is 69,400 tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory is 391,800 tons, an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]

除部分企业存灵活控产行为，短期企业产能利用率或存小幅下调可能。ru2601合约短线预计在15300-1575 0区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12150-12600区间波动。 窄幅波动为主，半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期，仍有企业适度加大排产现象，对整体开工仍存一定支 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 撑；全钢胎替换市场需求未有明显提升，且部分企业外贸出口存压力。目前虽部分企业缺货现象仍存，企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳以补充库存，但整体出货表现不及预期，部分企业库存仍存提升迹象，为缓解压力，不排 免责声明 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | -90 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15525 | 12395 | -30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

利用率或以小幅波动为主。ru2601合约短线预计在15300-15750区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12150-1 2600区间波动。 免责声明 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15570 | -310 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12300 | -290 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15 | 0 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 60 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3270 | -20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 159271 | 12463 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 69153 | 3914 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -30609 | -1558 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -13580 | -893 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased, and most enterprises are expected to maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,750 - 16,300 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 also changed to varying degrees [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and international markets showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1,870 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market showed different changes. The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the STR20 theoretical production profit was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased. The all - steel tire operating rate was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points. The inventory days, production volume of all - steel and semi - steel tires also changed [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset, as well as the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options, showed different changes. The historical 20 - day volatility was 17.14%, down 0.33 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility was 19.62%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber, rainfall in different regions has different impacts on rubber tapping. As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.95% compared with the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 8.32%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07%. The inventory utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Supply in Yunnan is increasing, while in Hainan, rainfall has disrupted tapping and slowed the seasonal increase in raw materials. Some factories are competing to buy raw materials, and the purchase price of latex has been raised. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the destocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, the destocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as some enterprises resume production after maintenance, but the increase in production may be limited due to some enterprises' production control plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,800 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,550 - 13,200 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract were 150,967 lots, up 372 lots; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract were 73,296 lots, up 1,326 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 30,105 lots, up 1,015 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 15,223 lots, down 156 lots. - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, down 2,310 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, down 907 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,005 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,253 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 633 yuan/ton, up 136 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.12 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.15 Thai baht. - The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.4 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 14.97%, down 0.24 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 18.46%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. 3.7 Suggestion Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price is firm. The raw material output in Hainan is seasonally increasing, but the factories are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, and the purchase price of latex is lowered. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the de - stocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, as tire factories become more risk - averse, the de - stocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow month - on - month. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as the production of maintenance enterprises resumes, but the increase in the start - up rate may be limited due to the general shipment of some enterprises and production control plans within the month. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,200 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 150,595 lots, down 1,149 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 71,970 lots, up 1,042 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,120 lots, up 2,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,067 lots, down 1,107 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 155,250 tons, down 1,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 47,678 tons, up 604 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 940 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,389 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 654 yuan/ton, up 274 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.22 Thai baht. The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.75%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, up 0.26 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 7th to 13th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with a slight increase in the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in central Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with an enhanced impact on tapping. As of September 7th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. As of September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2].

减量，对整体产能利用率形成一定影响，本月初部分企业存3-6天检修计划，或对短期产能利用率仍存一定 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15885 | | 12715 | 5 | | | | -80 | 20 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -50 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3170 | 10 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 147050 | 3830 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 36890 | -1963 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -33638 | -1947 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -6787 | 451 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 167760 | -160 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 45664 | -100 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with a slightly reduced decline rate. The inbound volume increased month - on - month, but the outbound volume increase was average. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement was relatively moderate, and it is expected that the inventory at Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the short term. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operated stably last week, while some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment also operated stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still have a certain impact on short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,520 - 13,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of No. 20 rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber was 3,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,220 lots, up 2,236 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 38,853 lots, down 2,509 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,691 lots, down 1,523 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber was - 7,238 lots, down 857 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 167,920 tons, down 3,160 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 45,764 tons, up 102 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 770 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,034 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 324 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.23 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 227.4 US dollars/ton, down 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.8 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, down 0.91 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.8%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.87%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.12%, up 0.71 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.14%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas with heavy rainfall were mainly in southern Thailand, southern Vietnam, and southwestern Cambodia, which increased the impact on tapping work. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, also increasing the impact on tapping work. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [2]