天然橡胶产业日报 2025-11-20 0区间波动，nr2601合约短线预计在12300-12700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15250 | -190 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12320 | -160 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -90 | -5 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2930 | - ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15440 | 145 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12480 | 135 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -85 | 5 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | -25 | -5 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2960 | 10 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 126127 | 2096 | | 期货市场 | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61464 | 61 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -29656 | 1097 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7368 | 450 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 116060 | 160 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 49594 | -101 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 14950 1850 | 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory Overseas vessel arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, downstream stocking willingness is low, and new orders are scarce The demand side shows that most semi - steel tire enterprises' device operations are stable with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization, while individual full - steel tire enterprises have maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, which is expected to decline further The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12345 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 in both contracts also have corresponding changes, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increase by 7770 tons to 115900 tons, while the 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 49695 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, and mixed rubber from Thailand and Malaysia, have increased by 50 yuan/ton The prices of butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical are 10700 yuan/ton and 10500 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 200 yuan/ton and the latter remaining unchanged The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products, as well as the basis of 20 - number rubber, also have corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, have different changes The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 are 149.6 dollars/ton and - 5.4 dollars/ton respectively, with increases of 19 dollars/ton and 18 dollars/ton The monthly import volumes of technically classified natural rubber and mixed rubber are 12.26 million tons and 31.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 64.5% and 73.68% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.96 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.01 percentage points The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days and 45.36 days respectively, with increases of 0.35 days and 0.31 days The monthly production volumes of full - steel and semi - steel tires are 13.14 million pieces and 60.25 million pieces respectively, with increases of 110,000 pieces and 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying are 17.46% and 18.43% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.05 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.07 percentage points The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 20.57%, with increases of 0.1 and 0.11 percentage points respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 452,600 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous period The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons As of November 13, the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises are 72.99% and 64.29% respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remained at a high level. Factories had sufficient replenishment in the early stage. Most of the outbound shipments from the general - trade warehouse were for the delivery of previous orders. Downstream stocking willingness was low, and new orders were few, so the general - trade inventory continued to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week, most semi - steel tire enterprises had stable device operation with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization. Some all - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will further decline. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,355 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 12 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,129 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots. The position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 64,475 lots, a decrease of 30,902 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was 586 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 493 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 108,130 tons, a decrease of 340 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,695 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 19 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit was 149.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 0.95 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 12.26 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The all - steel tire opening rate was 64.5%, and the semi - steel tire opening rate was 73.68%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.36 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 6,025 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.51%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.36%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option was 20.47%, and that of the at - the - money put option was 20.46% [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 930,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 664,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 9.16 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,220 in the short - term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory accumulation rate of Qingdao Port has narrowed compared to the previous period. The bonded warehouse shows a slight destocking, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an inventory accumulation state [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - grade rubber contract is 12,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - grade rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber is 2,945 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 187 hands to 140,848 hands; the positions of the main 20 - grade rubber contract decreased by 1,340 hands to 69,351 hands [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 885 to - 33,178; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - grade rubber decreased by 708 to - 10,665 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 650 tons to 118,320 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber increased by 2,319 tons to 50,905 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is not provided in a comparable way; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,455 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L is not provided clearly; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,500 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 560 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 445 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - grade rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,928 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - grade rubber contract is 763 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, down 43.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, up 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.26 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, up 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, up 0.23 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.36%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.26%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.03%, down 0.09 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.03%, down 0.09 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory is 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory is 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60% [2] - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a significant accumulation trend, with a slight de - stocking in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials, leading to an inventory accumulation inflection point. In terms of demand, the production of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, slightly increasing the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,045 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread is 195 yuan (up 20 yuan). The closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,130 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), and the 12 - 1 spread is 195 yuan (down 15 yuan). The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,915 yuan (unchanged). The trading volume and net positions of the two contracts have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 280 tons to 119,100 tons, while those of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 504 tons to 48,586 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and other regions have changed. For example, the price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Vietnam 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber has also changed [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market have changed, with the prices of smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber decreasing, while the price of glue remains unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volumes of technically - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber have increased by 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons respectively [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have decreased slightly. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have decreased, and the monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased by 110,000 and 2.19 million respectively [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset have changed, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 1.61 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility increasing by 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase. As of November 2, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 447,700 tons, a 3.57% increase. As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises have changed [2] 3.7 View Summary - The inventory at Qingdao Port has accumulated, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. The ru2601 and nr2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges [2] 3.8 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,560 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate within a certain range (not specified in the text) [2]. - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port shows a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses destocking, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, while the arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected. The demand side shows that the production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has mostly returned to normal levels, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The production of semi - steel tire enterprises is expected to remain stable, and the production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 144,081 lots, up 377 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 46,472 lots, down 4,566 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,945 lots, down 1,631 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,752 lots, down 225 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 122,570 tons, down 740 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44,454 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,219 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 689 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.06 Thai baht/kg, up 1.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 53.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.75 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.44%, up 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.45%, up 0.37 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly reduced impact on rubber tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon on a month - on - month basis [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [2]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. The production scheduling during the week mostly returned to normal levels, and the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly this week [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight de - stocking. The arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected, but the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows. The demand side is relatively stable, with the production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises expected to remain high, and the production of all - steel tire enterprises expected to be stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is not given a specific short - term forecast range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143704 lots, down 1486 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 51038 lots, down 8525 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25314 lots, down 525 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10527 lots, down 57 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 123310 tons, down 710 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43849 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 630 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13228 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 688 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.89 Thai baht/kg, up 1.02 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.4 Thai baht/kg, up 1.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.09%, down 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.08%, down 0.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an enhanced impact on rubber tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the inventory in general trade was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the destocking range of general trade warehouses exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving an obvious increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise devices will be stable in the short term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,815 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 148,828 lots, down 1,539 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 61,890 lots, down 1,523 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25,462 lots, down 20 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,411 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 127,210 tons, down 530 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,640 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 732 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.87 Thai baht/kg, down 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 54.56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup glue of Thai raw rubber is 51.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.6 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.5%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.07%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, down 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.31%, down 1.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 19th to October 25th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has less impact on tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a greater impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. Pay attention to its subsequent development [2]. - As of October 19th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [2]. - The natural rubber producing areas around the world are in the tapping period. The tapping in Yunnan is normal, and the raw material supply is okay. Driven by the strong futures and spot markets, the raw material purchase price has been slightly raised; in Hainan, affected by Typhoon Fengshen, the night precipitation has increased and the temperature has decreased, and the tapping operation on the island has not resumed, and the actual purchase volume of raw materials by local rubber processing plants is relatively limited [2]. - The warehousing rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [2]. - As of October 16th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered significantly, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control to control inventory growth. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,630 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,350 yuan/ton, down 15 - 10 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume and net position of both Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have decreased by 1,340 tons, while those of 20 - number rubber have increased by 1,412 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 0 - 30 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers have increased by 300 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 are 11,400 yuan/ton and 11,200 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 100 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products has decreased, while the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market has increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract has decreased by 81 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet, film, glue, and cup rubber) have different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons. The weekly opening rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have increased significantly [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have different changes. The monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased. The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying asset have decreased, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] Industry News - In September 2025, the El Niño Index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 4.07%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.70%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51%. The natural rubber production areas in Yunnan are in normal production, while Hainan is affected by Typhoon Fengshen, with limited raw material supply [2]