Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that colder weather has led to an increase in gas prices in the US and China, while Europe has entered the inventory withdrawal season with a slight price increase [1][9] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, suggesting a positive outlook for gas companies [1][48] Price Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, gas prices have changed week-on-week as follows: US HH +25.4%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM +0.5%, China LNG ex-factory +6.5%, and China LNG CIF +0.4% [9][11] - The report notes that the price inversion between domestic and international markets has ended [9] Supply and Demand Analysis - The US natural gas market saw a week-on-week price increase of 25.4% due to colder weather, with storage levels rising by 870 billion cubic feet to 38,080 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [14] - In Europe, gas prices increased by 1.2% as the region entered the inventory withdrawal phase, with gas consumption from January to July 2025 reaching 265.4 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5% [15] - Domestic gas prices in China rose by 6.5% due to colder weather, with apparent consumption from January to September 2025 increasing by 0.7% to 318.8 billion cubic meters [21][24] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [33] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as Xin'ao Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy [49] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [49] - The report also emphasizes the importance of energy independence and suggests关注ing companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry, specifically recommending New Hope Holdings for its stable profits and high dividend yield [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cooling temperatures in the US have led to a decrease in gas prices, while European storage efforts are also contributing to price declines. Domestic gas prices are showing weakness [1][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with stable profits and high dividends, particularly New Hope Holdings, which is expected to see significant improvements in profit structure post-restructuring [1][51]. Price Tracking - As of July 25, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH -11.9%, European TTF -2.9%, East Asia JKM -1%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF -4.7%, with prices settling at 0.8, 2.8, 3, 3, and 3 CNY per cubic meter respectively [10][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In the US, the average total supply of natural gas decreased by 0.2% week-on-week to 1,129 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 2.1% to 1,049 billion cubic feet per day. Year-on-year, supply is up 4.5% and demand is up 5.6% [14]. - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to April 2025 was 1,920 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. The average daily gas generation in Europe increased by 10.1% week-on-week and 54.3% year-on-year [16]. Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY per cubic meter. The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment recovery [37]. Important Events - The US LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [44]. - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage goal [49][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from a relaxed pricing mechanism, particularly recommending New Hope Holdings (2025 dividend yield of 6.2%), China Gas (5.9%), and others with strong dividend yields [51].