Group 1 - The core issue facing the southwest gas-based fertilizer companies is the significant disparity between rising natural gas prices and falling urea market prices, leading to operational challenges and potential production halts [1][2] - Natural gas prices have reached 2.29 yuan per cubic meter, with expectations of further increases during the winter heating season, while urea prices have dropped to 1500 yuan per ton, below production costs [1] - The average price of natural gas for chemical use in the southwest region is projected to rise by 32% from approximately 1.75 yuan per cubic meter in 2021 to nearly 2.3 yuan per cubic meter by 2025, contrasting sharply with the decline in urea prices from 2900 yuan per ton to around 1500 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - There are over 100 gas-based chemical enterprises in the southwest region, consuming nearly 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually, with an estimated urea production capacity of 8.3 million tons in 2024 [2] - The southwest gas-based fertilizer companies are crucial for spring agricultural supply and are considered a foundational element of the southwest industrial system, highlighting the need for government attention and optimization of natural gas pricing mechanisms for sustainable development [2]

近日，西南气头化肥企业向《中国化工报》记者表示，目前作为其原料的天然气价格已达2.29元/立方 米，下个月就要到供暖季，按惯例气价还要进一步上涨，但尿素市场价格则已跌至1500元/吨。企业已 经难以继续运行，减停产将成为现实。 目前西南地区共有100余家气头化工企业，每年用气近100亿立方米。2024年，云贵川渝尿素产能约830 万吨。 相关企业告诉记者，肥企现在的情况是各家都有较高库存，尿素市场价格则已经跌破1600元/吨，降到 了1500元/吨。而企业的原料和公用辅料以及动力的成本就要超过1500元/吨，所以目前边际贡献全无。 为此，西南各肥企不得不陆续减产停产。因为在产品售价低于物耗成本的情况下，开得越多亏得越多。 对此，相关企业再次呼吁，西南气头化肥企业是春耕保供的重要力量;气头化工企业还是西南工业体系 的重要基础和支撑，既有战略价值，又有现实需求。希望国家对相关企业的生存发展多加关注，优化天 然气定价机制，使西南天然气化工产业链实现可持续发展。 "下个月将进入冬季供暖。在每年11月15日到第二年3月15日的冬季供暖季节，按惯例天然气价格都是要 上涨的。所以在这样的情况下，如果没有其他变化的话，我们1 ...

经过长期沉寂，被外界称为"世纪大单"的中俄第二条巨型天然气管道——"西伯利亚力量2号"项目终于取得突破性进展。本月初，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公 司总裁阿列克谢·米勒正式宣布： 双方已签署具有法律约束力的谅解备忘录，规划建设途经蒙古国、年输气量高达500亿立方米的新天然气管道系统——也就是通往中国的"西伯利亚力量2 号"管道及过境蒙古的"东方联盟"输气管道。 这份文件的签署标志着项目向前迈出实质性一步，虽然尚未达成最终商业合同，但为未来30年的能源合作奠定了坚实基础。有趣的是，俄媒表示：这个项目 的构想甚至比2014年签署的"西伯利亚力量1号"还要早。 然而，"西伯利亚力量2号"项目的谈判过程异常曲折。其中，最核心的障碍正是价格问题。经过多轮博弈，双方似乎找到了平衡点——与2014年首个中俄天 然气合同类似，供应给中国的气价将继续保持对欧洲价格的折扣优势。 专家斯坦尼斯拉夫·罗金斯基提供的具体数据显示：2021年第一季度，俄罗斯对华供气均价为每千立方米121美元，而同期俄气出口总体均价达到171美元， 差价高达50美元，折扣幅度接近30%。 低价并非偶然，而是由特殊的定价机制所保障的 中俄天然气定价采用与石油价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the natural gas industry Core Insights - Europe is a major consumer of natural gas and has a complex pricing mechanism influenced by market liberalization, supply stability, and geopolitical factors since 1970 [5][14] - The evolution of natural gas pricing in Europe has transitioned from a cost-plus model to oil-linked pricing, and now to a gas-to-gas competition model, highlighting the importance of supply stability [5][14] - The ongoing "de-Russification" of energy supply in Europe and the slow development of alternative supply routes may lead to persistent regional price premiums [5][15] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Pricing Evolution (1970-2024) - The natural gas market in Europe has undergone significant changes influenced by energy crises, geopolitical shifts, and technological advancements [16] - From 1970 to 2000, the market transitioned from a cost-plus pricing model to oil-linked pricing, with long-term contracts being crucial for supply stability [6][17] - The period from 2001 to 2009 saw a significant price increase of 308.5% due to rising oil prices and increased demand for natural gas as an alternative energy source [7][39] - The years 2010-2015 were marked by price fluctuations due to the Fukushima disaster and the European debt crisis, with prices not surpassing 2008 levels despite temporary spikes [53][58] - From 2016 to 2019, LNG trade accelerated, reshaping the supply landscape, with prices experiencing a 140% increase in 2016 before a subsequent decline of 62.3% [8][15] - The period from 2020 to 2024 was characterized by extreme price volatility driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the need for energy diversification [9][15] 2. Implications for the Natural Gas Industry - The reliance on a single supplier, particularly Russia, has exposed Europe to significant geopolitical risks, necessitating a diversification of supply sources [9][15] - The urgency of energy transition in China is highlighted, with a need for improved policy coordination and technological advancements to reduce transition costs and risks [9][15] - The report suggests that China should enhance monitoring of industrial gas costs and establish price warning mechanisms to improve industrial resilience [9][15]