Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global natural gas market is gradually stabilizing after deep adjustments, with a weak balance in supply and demand expected to continue into the second half of 2025, while international natural gas prices are anticipated to remain relatively low despite geopolitical tensions and other uncertainties [4][5][7] - Domestic natural gas production in China is steadily increasing, but there is a significant production-consumption gap, leading to a high dependence on imports, which is projected to remain a challenge [9][10] - The construction of gas storage facilities is ongoing, enhancing supply security, but the current peak shaving capacity is still insufficient [14][19] - The upstream market is dominated by major state-owned oil and gas companies, while the midstream sector is seeing the establishment of a new pipeline network, and the downstream market remains competitive with diverse players [15][18] Summary by Sections Key Points - The global natural gas market is expected to maintain a weak balance in supply and demand in the first half of 2025, with international prices showing volatility but remaining low [4][5] - Domestic consumption of natural gas in China slightly decreased in early 2025 due to warm winter conditions, leading to a decline in LNG imports [9][10] - The supply of natural gas in China is expected to be relatively sufficient in the second half of 2025, with a slight recovery in demand anticipated [14][19] Major Focus Factors - Global natural gas consumption growth is slowing, with a 1% increase expected in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and regional disparities are evident [5][6] - The LNG supply is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, driven by new capacities coming online, particularly from the US and Qatar [6][7] - China's natural gas import dependency is around 39%, with total imports of 82.4 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year [10][12] Conclusion - The natural gas market in China is characterized by a stable upstream and midstream structure, with ongoing improvements in pricing mechanisms and infrastructure development [27][28] - The profitability of city gas companies is under pressure due to declining demand and connection business volumes, but overall debt levels remain stable [19][21] - The report highlights the importance of ongoing policy support for price adjustments and infrastructure development to enhance the industry's resilience [18][28]

2025年上半年，受下游用气需求下降及接驳业务量下滑影响，城燃企业盈利能力承压；行业整体债务规 模小幅增长，杠杆水平保持稳健；上半年行业资本开支主要集中在大型燃气企业，多数企业资本开支有 所下降；较强的经营获现能力对债务偿还形成支撑，行业偿债能力维持稳定。 2025年上半年，国产气维持稳步增产态势，但产销缺口明显，我国天然气进口依存度仍较高；受暖冬影 响，天然气消费量略有下降，需求端增长动力不足向进口环节传导，导致LNG进口规模呈现回落态 势。随着储气库、LNG接收站等储气设施有序建设，供应保障能力持续提升，但储气调峰能力不足仍 是短板。2025年下半年，多气源支撑下我国天然气供应预计较为充足，天然气需求或将环比小幅回升， 供需格局趋于稳定。 2025年上半年，天然气上中下游市场格局相对稳定，其中燃气行业上游勘探生产资源集中于以"三桶 油"为主的大型国有油气公司，2025年以来主要定价方案的市场化程度进一步提升；中游天然气管网"五 纵五横"的新格局正加速构建，同时2025年新政策将推进省内与跨省管输价格机制有效衔接；下游城市 燃气企业仍呈现多元化竞争格局，未来随着政策推动居民气价调整，购销价差将有所改善。 （ ...