特朗普提出了在美国增产天然气并扩大LNG出口的方针（reuters） 据统计，美国LNG的月出口量10月份达到990万吨，首次接近1000万吨大关。在供应有望持续增长的背 景下，全球的天然气市场出现下跌迹象。不过，美国大量出口LNG也会推高本国国内的天然气价 格…… 全球液化天然气（LNG）市场的供需平衡正在迈向从供应短缺到供应过剩的重大转折点。原因是美国 的新增生产设备将陆续投入运营，预计出口量将激增。如果以供应过剩为背景，LNG价格下降，燃料 依赖进口的日本也将从电费下降等方面受益。 美国正在迎来空前的LNG出口热潮。欧洲调查公司Kpler的数据显示，美国LNG的月出口量10月份达到 990万吨，首次接近1000万吨大关。 预计今后LNG的生产将陆续启动。Kpler的数据显示，10月末，一艘运载用于设备冷却的LNG 的船只正 驶向长期处于建设延迟状态、位于美国德克萨斯州东南部的 "黄金通道液化天然气项目 (Golden Pass LNG)"。这表明即将在未来几个月内开始运行。 Kpler的首席分析师片山刚指出："可能在2025年底启动生产，从2026年2月起正式开始出口，比之前的 预测提前1个月"。预计2 ...

格隆汇11月11日｜根据DNB的数据，由于气温下降，欧洲的天然气需求在十月份有所上升。上个月， 天然气需求增加了7%，这主要是由更高的燃气发电使用量以及居民和商业消费增加所驱动。与此同 时，十月份天然气供应增加了1%，其中西北欧的液化天然气进口增加了42%。该公司的分析师表 示："在高涨的需求和欧洲天然气库存持续低迷的情况下，需要高水平的液化天然气进口来平衡市 场。"欧洲天然气库存目前为82.5%，低于十年来的平均水平。基准天然气TTF价格下跌0.2%，至每兆瓦 时31.01欧元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global natural gas market is gradually stabilizing after deep adjustments, with a weak balance in supply and demand expected to continue into the second half of 2025, while international natural gas prices are anticipated to remain relatively low despite geopolitical tensions and other uncertainties [4][5][7] - Domestic natural gas production in China is steadily increasing, but there is a significant production-consumption gap, leading to a high dependence on imports, which is projected to remain a challenge [9][10] - The construction of gas storage facilities is ongoing, enhancing supply security, but the current peak shaving capacity is still insufficient [14][19] - The upstream market is dominated by major state-owned oil and gas companies, while the midstream sector is seeing the establishment of a new pipeline network, and the downstream market remains competitive with diverse players [15][18] Summary by Sections Key Points - The global natural gas market is expected to maintain a weak balance in supply and demand in the first half of 2025, with international prices showing volatility but remaining low [4][5] - Domestic consumption of natural gas in China slightly decreased in early 2025 due to warm winter conditions, leading to a decline in LNG imports [9][10] - The supply of natural gas in China is expected to be relatively sufficient in the second half of 2025, with a slight recovery in demand anticipated [14][19] Major Focus Factors - Global natural gas consumption growth is slowing, with a 1% increase expected in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and regional disparities are evident [5][6] - The LNG supply is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, driven by new capacities coming online, particularly from the US and Qatar [6][7] - China's natural gas import dependency is around 39%, with total imports of 82.4 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year [10][12] Conclusion - The natural gas market in China is characterized by a stable upstream and midstream structure, with ongoing improvements in pricing mechanisms and infrastructure development [27][28] - The profitability of city gas companies is under pressure due to declining demand and connection business volumes, but overall debt levels remain stable [19][21] - The report highlights the importance of ongoing policy support for price adjustments and infrastructure development to enhance the industry's resilience [18][28]

Group 1 - The global natural gas market is gradually stabilizing after a deep adjustment, with a weak balance in supply and demand expected in the first half of 2025, leading to increased volatility in international natural gas prices [1] - Domestic natural gas production in China is steadily increasing, but there is a significant production-consumption gap, resulting in a high dependence on imports; LNG import volumes are expected to decline due to a slight decrease in consumption driven by a warm winter [1] - By the second half of 2025, China's natural gas supply is anticipated to be relatively sufficient, with a slight rebound in demand expected, leading to a more stable supply-demand pattern [1] Group 2 - The upstream market structure for natural gas remains stable in the first half of 2025, with resource exploration and production concentrated among major state-owned oil and gas companies; market pricing mechanisms have become more market-oriented [2] - The midstream natural gas pipeline network is accelerating the construction of a new "five vertical and five horizontal" layout, with new policies promoting effective coordination of provincial and inter-provincial transportation pricing mechanisms [2] - Downstream city gas companies are facing pressure on profitability due to decreased gas demand and a decline in connection business volume; overall industry debt levels have slightly increased while maintaining a stable leverage ratio [2]