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天然气行业2026年年度策略:供给宽松促需求放量,降本+顺价盈利能力修复,关注双综业务潜力
Soochow Securities· 2025-12-12 11:13
Group 1 - The report indicates that in 2025, China's natural gas consumption is expected to increase slightly to 4,302 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, influenced by factors such as a warm winter and tariff policies [3][20][21] - Domestic self-sufficiency in natural gas is projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 60% in 2025, with production increasing by 6.5% to 2,171 billion cubic meters, while imports are expected to decline by 6.3% to 1,444 billion cubic meters [3][23][24] - The report highlights that LNG supply is shifting towards a more relaxed state, which is anticipated to lower domestic gas costs and enhance the economic viability of natural gas [4][29] Group 2 - The economic viability of natural gas is expected to improve significantly, with a potential demand increase of 1.7 times by 2030, driven by the clean energy value of natural gas [5][47] - The report notes a trend of cost reduction and the implementation of pricing mechanisms, which are expected to restore profitability in the industry [6][12] - The structural impact of connection services is diminishing, with derivative businesses in gas sales expected to grow rapidly, becoming a new growth point for city gas companies [10][31] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares, which are expected to benefit from the release of overseas gas sources [11][12] - It is suggested to pay attention to companies like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, which possess gas production capabilities amid increasing uncertainties in U.S. gas imports [12][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency in light of rising uncertainties regarding U.S. gas imports, highlighting the need for companies to enhance their production capabilities [12][11]