Group 1 - The report indicates that in 2025, China's natural gas consumption is expected to increase slightly to 4,302 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, influenced by factors such as a warm winter and tariff policies [3][20][21] - Domestic self-sufficiency in natural gas is projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 60% in 2025, with production increasing by 6.5% to 2,171 billion cubic meters, while imports are expected to decline by 6.3% to 1,444 billion cubic meters [3][23][24] - The report highlights that LNG supply is shifting towards a more relaxed state, which is anticipated to lower domestic gas costs and enhance the economic viability of natural gas [4][29] Group 2 - The economic viability of natural gas is expected to improve significantly, with a potential demand increase of 1.7 times by 2030, driven by the clean energy value of natural gas [5][47] - The report notes a trend of cost reduction and the implementation of pricing mechanisms, which are expected to restore profitability in the industry [6][12] - The structural impact of connection services is diminishing, with derivative businesses in gas sales expected to grow rapidly, becoming a new growth point for city gas companies [10][31] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares, which are expected to benefit from the release of overseas gas sources [11][12] - It is suggested to pay attention to companies like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, which possess gas production capabilities amid increasing uncertainties in U.S. gas imports [12][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency in light of rising uncertainties regarding U.S. gas imports, highlighting the need for companies to enhance their production capabilities [12][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 66.015 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.408 billion yuan, down 4.82%. However, core profit increased by 1.4% to 2.736 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [7] - The platform trading gas market showed resilience, with sales volume reaching 2.689 billion cubic meters in H1 2025, only a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, despite a 20.6% drop in LNG imports [7] - Retail gas volume grew by 1.9% year-on-year to 12.95 billion cubic meters, outperforming the industry average, with retail gas revenue of 33.627 billion yuan and a gross profit of 4.69 billion yuan, up 2.3% [7] - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume increased by 11.7% year-on-year to 1.137 million tons in H1 2025, with plans for further capacity expansion [7] - The company's total liabilities decreased to 29.736 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 21.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [7] - The privatization of the subsidiary, Xin'ao Energy, is progressing, with plans for annual cash dividends of no less than 50% of the core profit, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 5.155 billion, 6.419 billion, and 7.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 136.829 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 5.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [6] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.66 yuan, with a gross margin of 14.2% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 financial results, showing a slight decline in total revenue and net profit, while core profit experienced a marginal increase, indicating performance slightly below expectations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.44% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan, down 9.64% year-on-year [1]. - Core profit reached 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core operations [1]. Group 2: Gas Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s gas sales volume in Q1 2025 was 10.544 billion cubic meters, up 5.4% year-on-year, driven by a 34.5% increase in wholesale gas sales [2]. - Retail gas sales volume was 7.258 billion cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with residential gas sales growing by 1.1% [2]. - The company’s platform trading gas sales volume was 1.196 billion cubic meters, showing a minor decline of 1.4% year-on-year, while international trade volume increased by 1.21 billion cubic meters [2]. Group 3: LNG Processing and Energy Sales - The LNG processing volume at the Zhoushan receiving station reached 551,700 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.6% [3]. - The company’s comprehensive energy sales volume was 10.039 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - The company has 367 operational comprehensive energy projects with a total installed capacity of 6.25 GW, and 73 projects under construction with a capacity of 1.18 GW [3]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The privatization of New World Energy is progressing steadily, with asset restructuring expected to enhance shareholder returns [4]. - The company has updated financial data and is advancing through regulatory approvals for the privatization process [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to delays in long-term resource availability and the impact of a warm winter on retail gas growth [4].