证券研究报告 天然气行业2026年年度策略 供给宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价盈利能力修复；关注双综业务潜力 证券分析师：袁理 执业证书编号：S0600511080001 联系邮箱：yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：谷玥 执业证书编号：S0600524090002 日期：2025年12月12日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 供给宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价落地盈利能力修复 ➢ 2025年国内供需复盘：需求偏弱，国内自给率提升 暖冬、关税、反内卷政策影响下，我国2025年天然气消费量微增。 据中国石化经济技术研究院预测，2025年实际消费量4302亿立方米，同比增长2.4%。 供给侧海外偏紧叠加对美LNG施加关税，国内自给率提升 。2025M1-10自给率提升3pct至60%。2025M1-10，产量同比+6.5%至2171亿方，进口量同比- 6.3%至1444亿方，其中进口管道气同比+7.5%，进口LNG同比-16.3%；自给率60%，同比提升3pct。进口量下降源于对美LNG施加关税、国内气价不振国 际市场存在转口套利空间。对美LNG加征25%关税导致2025M1-11美气回国平均价差从0.47 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 66.015 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.408 billion yuan, down 4.82%. However, core profit increased by 1.4% to 2.736 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [7] - The platform trading gas market showed resilience, with sales volume reaching 2.689 billion cubic meters in H1 2025, only a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, despite a 20.6% drop in LNG imports [7] - Retail gas volume grew by 1.9% year-on-year to 12.95 billion cubic meters, outperforming the industry average, with retail gas revenue of 33.627 billion yuan and a gross profit of 4.69 billion yuan, up 2.3% [7] - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume increased by 11.7% year-on-year to 1.137 million tons in H1 2025, with plans for further capacity expansion [7] - The company's total liabilities decreased to 29.736 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 21.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [7] - The privatization of the subsidiary, Xin'ao Energy, is progressing, with plans for annual cash dividends of no less than 50% of the core profit, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 5.155 billion, 6.419 billion, and 7.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 136.829 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 5.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [6] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.66 yuan, with a gross margin of 14.2% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 financial results, showing a slight decline in total revenue and net profit, while core profit experienced a marginal increase, indicating performance slightly below expectations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.44% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan, down 9.64% year-on-year [1]. - Core profit reached 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core operations [1]. Group 2: Gas Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s gas sales volume in Q1 2025 was 10.544 billion cubic meters, up 5.4% year-on-year, driven by a 34.5% increase in wholesale gas sales [2]. - Retail gas sales volume was 7.258 billion cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with residential gas sales growing by 1.1% [2]. - The company’s platform trading gas sales volume was 1.196 billion cubic meters, showing a minor decline of 1.4% year-on-year, while international trade volume increased by 1.21 billion cubic meters [2]. Group 3: LNG Processing and Energy Sales - The LNG processing volume at the Zhoushan receiving station reached 551,700 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.6% [3]. - The company’s comprehensive energy sales volume was 10.039 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - The company has 367 operational comprehensive energy projects with a total installed capacity of 6.25 GW, and 73 projects under construction with a capacity of 1.18 GW [3]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The privatization of New World Energy is progressing steadily, with asset restructuring expected to enhance shareholder returns [4]. - The company has updated financial data and is advancing through regulatory approvals for the privatization process [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to delays in long-term resource availability and the impact of a warm winter on retail gas growth [4].