证券研究报告 天然气行业2026年年度策略 供给宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价盈利能力修复；关注双综业务潜力 证券分析师：袁理 执业证书编号：S0600511080001 联系邮箱：yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：谷玥 执业证书编号：S0600524090002 日期：2025年12月12日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 供给宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价落地盈利能力修复 ➢ 2025年国内供需复盘：需求偏弱，国内自给率提升 暖冬、关税、反内卷政策影响下，我国2025年天然气消费量微增。 据中国石化经济技术研究院预测，2025年实际消费量4302亿立方米，同比增长2.4%。 供给侧海外偏紧叠加对美LNG施加关税，国内自给率提升 。2025M1-10自给率提升3pct至60%。2025M1-10，产量同比+6.5%至2171亿方，进口量同比- 6.3%至1444亿方，其中进口管道气同比+7.5%，进口LNG同比-16.3%；自给率60%，同比提升3pct。进口量下降源于对美LNG施加关税、国内气价不振国 际市场存在转口套利空间。对美LNG加征25%关税导致2025M1-11美气回国平均价差从0.47 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer, Leonid Mikhelson, stated that the West's attempt to exclude Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the global supply-demand balance will lead to a significant increase in gas prices, ultimately harming European consumers [1]. Group 1 - Novatek's LNG production accounts for over 10% of the global market, making it unrealistic to remove it from the global supply-demand balance [1]. - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned that the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia is the first to target the Russian gas industry, which is a core pillar of the Russian economy [1]. - The International Energy Agency reported that in the first three quarters of this year, U.S. LNG exports to Europe surged by 60%, with U.S. LNG now accounting for 60% of total LNG imports into Europe, surpassing Russia as the largest LNG supplier to Europe [1].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Novatek, Leonid Mikhelson, stated that the West cannot exclude Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the global gas supply-demand balance, and attempting to do so would lead to a significant increase in gas prices, harming European consumers [1] Group 1: Russian LNG Market - Russian LNG accounts for over 10% of the global market share, making it unrealistic to remove it from the global gas supply-demand balance [1] - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned that the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia is the first to target the Russian gas industry, which is a core pillar of the Russian economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Novatek, Leonid Mikhelson, stated that it is unrealistic for the West to exclude Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the global gas supply-demand balance, despite the EU's new sanctions prohibiting imports of Russian LNG starting in 2027 [1] Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia includes a ban on importing Russian LNG, marking the first direct attack on Russia's gas industry, which is a core pillar of its economy [1] - Mikhelson emphasized that even if Russian LNG is redirected to other markets, its removal from the global supply-demand balance would lead to significant price increases, impacting European consumers the most [1] Group 2: Market Position and Supply Dynamics - Russia accounts for over 10% of global LNG production, making it a significant player in the market [1] - Novatek is the second-largest gas producer in Russia, following Gazprom, and operates as a private company [1] - The U.S. LNG projects are unable to meet the rapidly growing demand in Europe, despite a 60% increase in U.S. LNG exports to Europe in the first three quarters of the year, which now constitute 60% of Europe's total LNG imports [1]

Group 1 - European natural gas futures prices have seen a slight increase as traders weigh the risks of ample supply against the potential for higher demand due to cold weather, with benchmark futures rising by 0.9% on Wednesday [1] - The current price of the Dutch near-month natural gas futures has risen by 0.4% to €31.62 per megawatt-hour, amid a slowdown in European LNG transport and reduced pipeline deliveries from Norway due to maintenance [2] - Despite earlier low inventory levels, Europe has successfully accumulated sufficient natural gas stocks over the summer, with large storage facilities currently filled to nearly 83% [4] Group 2 - The onset of cold weather at the beginning of the heating season has led some countries to draw from their natural gas reserves, raising concerns about short-term supply and testing the region's supply-demand balance [2][4] - The market remains sensitive to any unexpected or prolonged disruptions in global gas flows or increased competition for cargoes, particularly as Ukraine has lost about 60% of its gas production capacity and will rely more on imports from the EU this winter [4]

Core Insights - The natural gas supply in China is expected to be roughly balanced with demand this year, with potential tight supply periods [1][3] - Domestic natural gas sales in Q1 reached 118.6 billion cubic meters, influenced by higher temperatures leading to lower demand [3] - The total natural gas supply for the year is projected at 444.2 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global natural gas market is experiencing significant divergence, with Europe facing supply tightness due to low temperatures and transportation issues [3] - In contrast, domestic demand is projected to grow by 20 billion cubic meters year-on-year, indicating a slower growth rate in industrial sectors such as textiles, light industry, and electronics [3] - The supply-demand growth rate is expected to rebound in Q4 due to base effects [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively working on resource procurement and expanding market supply reserves to ensure stable natural gas supply [3] - Efforts include optimizing infrastructure utilization and enhancing peak-shaving capabilities to meet market user demands [3]