| | | | 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、美国市场基本面 | 4 | | 三、国际 LNG | 市场基本面情况 6 | | 四、天气预测 | 10 | | 五、后市展望 | 12 | | | 免责声明 13 | 能化板块研发报告 天然气 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 寒冷天气叠加地缘扰动，短期市场波动剧烈 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 国际 LNG：本月价格从底部大幅反弹，TTF 从 9.7 美元/MMBTU 强势反弹至超 13 美元/MMBTU 的水平，上涨幅度接近 35%，JKM 反弹幅度稍微弱于 TTF。上涨 的核心动力一方面是欧洲和亚洲寒潮来临，尤其是欧洲冷空气较为强劲且持久，在本 身欧洲库存处于较低水平的情况下，去库速度加快；另一方面在于中东局势以及欧洲 关系迅速恶化，市场对于地缘局势风险溢价迅速抬升。多重利多共振下市场大幅上涨。 美国 HH：本月美气价格走出巨大的过山车行情，刚刚进入 ...

Report Title - Natural Gas: LNG in Low-level Fluctuations, Support Remains Below HH [1] Core Viewpoints - There is no clear core view presented in the provided text Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - There is no specific content provided for this chapter Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis LNG Market Fundamental Situation - From December 27, 2025, to January 2, 2026, certain data showed values of 104.8 and 2.8, with a +2.8% change; another showed 112.5 and 8.9, with a -7.3% change [10] - On January 9, LNG had a value of 184.6, and other related LNG values were 157.54 and 86.55 [10] - On January 8, electricity generation was 643.2 TWh, a decrease of 130.9 TWh (-17.9%) compared to a certain period, and accounted for 56.3% and 68.2% in different aspects [10] - On January 8, LNG power generation was 4628 GWh/day, accounting for 28.3% [10] - Another value was 1.60 GWh/day with a 14.4% change, and 10.1 TWh/day with a 13.6% change [10] - ECMWF and NOAA forecasts indicated temperature changes of 3 - 6°C and 1 - 2 - 3°C in different regions [10] US Market Fundamental Situation - On a certain day in January, the data was 32560, with changes of 1190 and 1230, and percentage changes of 3.6% and 0.9% [12] - On January 9, the dry gas production was 1136/day, a 0.2% increase from the previous week and a 9.8% increase year-on-year. Baker Hughes data showed related changes [12] - On January 9, domestic demand was 1046/day, a -7.7% week-on-week change and a -16.7% year-on-year change. Other consumption data also had corresponding changes [12] - On January 9, the liquefaction export project flow was 193, a -1.9% week-on-week change and a 26.7% year-on-year change [12] - ECMWF forecasted a temperature change of 1.5 - 2.5°C in January [12] Chapter 3: Core Data Tracking International Natural Gas Prices - Graphs showed TTF - HH spreads, international natural gas prices (JKM, TTF, HH), HH month spreads, and TTF month spreads from January 2025 to November 2025 [16] Forward Curves - Forward curves of HH, JKM, and TTF were presented from 2602 to 2711 [19] China's LNG Supply and Demand - Graphs showed China's LNG supply (domestic and imported by tank trucks) from January 2025 to January 2026, and China's natural gas supply and demand from December 2025 to January 2026 [22] China's LNG Factory Prices and Inventory - Graphs showed China's LNG factory prices (settlement prices in different regions) from January 2025 to January 2026, and China's inventory situation (receiving station inventory and storage reservoir inventory) [25] European Natural Gas Data - Graphs showed European natural gas inventory, northwest European gas - coal conversion intervals, European LNG imports, and the quantity of floating storage tanks over 20 days from January to December [28] - Graphs showed European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, etc.) and European domestic production from February 2024 to January 2026 [31] US Natural Gas Data - A supply - demand balance sheet showed US natural gas supply (dry gas production, Canadian pipeline gas imports) and demand (domestic demand, various consumption types, exports) for the current week, last week, and the same period last year, with corresponding percentage changes [33] - Graphs showed US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefaction export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption from different time periods [36][39] Temperature and Wind Forecasts - Graphs showed ECMWF and GFS temperature and wind forecasts from January 5 to February 16, 2026, compared with historical averages [42][45]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in 2025, China's natural gas consumption is expected to increase slightly to 4,302 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, influenced by factors such as a warm winter and tariff policies [3][20][21] - Domestic self-sufficiency in natural gas is projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 60% in 2025, with production increasing by 6.5% to 2,171 billion cubic meters, while imports are expected to decline by 6.3% to 1,444 billion cubic meters [3][23][24] - The report highlights that LNG supply is shifting towards a more relaxed state, which is anticipated to lower domestic gas costs and enhance the economic viability of natural gas [4][29] Group 2 - The economic viability of natural gas is expected to improve significantly, with a potential demand increase of 1.7 times by 2030, driven by the clean energy value of natural gas [5][47] - The report notes a trend of cost reduction and the implementation of pricing mechanisms, which are expected to restore profitability in the industry [6][12] - The structural impact of connection services is diminishing, with derivative businesses in gas sales expected to grow rapidly, becoming a new growth point for city gas companies [10][31] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares, which are expected to benefit from the release of overseas gas sources [11][12] - It is suggested to pay attention to companies like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, which possess gas production capabilities amid increasing uncertainties in U.S. gas imports [12][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency in light of rising uncertainties regarding U.S. gas imports, highlighting the need for companies to enhance their production capabilities [12][11]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer, Leonid Mikhelson, stated that the West's attempt to exclude Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the global supply-demand balance will lead to a significant increase in gas prices, ultimately harming European consumers [1]. Group 1 - Novatek's LNG production accounts for over 10% of the global market, making it unrealistic to remove it from the global supply-demand balance [1]. - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned that the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia is the first to target the Russian gas industry, which is a core pillar of the Russian economy [1]. - The International Energy Agency reported that in the first three quarters of this year, U.S. LNG exports to Europe surged by 60%, with U.S. LNG now accounting for 60% of total LNG imports into Europe, surpassing Russia as the largest LNG supplier to Europe [1].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Novatek, Leonid Mikhelson, stated that the West cannot exclude Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the global gas supply-demand balance, and attempting to do so would lead to a significant increase in gas prices, harming European consumers [1] Group 1: Russian LNG Market - Russian LNG accounts for over 10% of the global market share, making it unrealistic to remove it from the global gas supply-demand balance [1] - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned that the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia is the first to target the Russian gas industry, which is a core pillar of the Russian economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Novatek, Leonid Mikhelson, stated that it is unrealistic for the West to exclude Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the global gas supply-demand balance, despite the EU's new sanctions prohibiting imports of Russian LNG starting in 2027 [1] Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia includes a ban on importing Russian LNG, marking the first direct attack on Russia's gas industry, which is a core pillar of its economy [1] - Mikhelson emphasized that even if Russian LNG is redirected to other markets, its removal from the global supply-demand balance would lead to significant price increases, impacting European consumers the most [1] Group 2: Market Position and Supply Dynamics - Russia accounts for over 10% of global LNG production, making it a significant player in the market [1] - Novatek is the second-largest gas producer in Russia, following Gazprom, and operates as a private company [1] - The U.S. LNG projects are unable to meet the rapidly growing demand in Europe, despite a 60% increase in U.S. LNG exports to Europe in the first three quarters of the year, which now constitute 60% of Europe's total LNG imports [1]

Group 1 - European natural gas futures prices have seen a slight increase as traders weigh the risks of ample supply against the potential for higher demand due to cold weather, with benchmark futures rising by 0.9% on Wednesday [1] - The current price of the Dutch near-month natural gas futures has risen by 0.4% to €31.62 per megawatt-hour, amid a slowdown in European LNG transport and reduced pipeline deliveries from Norway due to maintenance [2] - Despite earlier low inventory levels, Europe has successfully accumulated sufficient natural gas stocks over the summer, with large storage facilities currently filled to nearly 83% [4] Group 2 - The onset of cold weather at the beginning of the heating season has led some countries to draw from their natural gas reserves, raising concerns about short-term supply and testing the region's supply-demand balance [2][4] - The market remains sensitive to any unexpected or prolonged disruptions in global gas flows or increased competition for cargoes, particularly as Ukraine has lost about 60% of its gas production capacity and will rely more on imports from the EU this winter [4]

Core Insights - The natural gas supply in China is expected to be roughly balanced with demand this year, with potential tight supply periods [1][3] - Domestic natural gas sales in Q1 reached 118.6 billion cubic meters, influenced by higher temperatures leading to lower demand [3] - The total natural gas supply for the year is projected at 444.2 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global natural gas market is experiencing significant divergence, with Europe facing supply tightness due to low temperatures and transportation issues [3] - In contrast, domestic demand is projected to grow by 20 billion cubic meters year-on-year, indicating a slower growth rate in industrial sectors such as textiles, light industry, and electronics [3] - The supply-demand growth rate is expected to rebound in Q4 due to base effects [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively working on resource procurement and expanding market supply reserves to ensure stable natural gas supply [3] - Efforts include optimizing infrastructure utilization and enhancing peak-shaving capabilities to meet market user demands [3]