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石油石化行业:天然气价跌,中国天然气单月产量下降明显
Dongxing Securities· 2025-08-21 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1] Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased month-on-month, with a notable drop in natural gas production in China for July [3][8] - As of August 8, 2025, the domestic LNG ex-factory price was 4220.00 CNY per ton, down by 205 CNY per ton, a decrease of 4.63% [1][8] - The report highlights significant changes in natural gas inventory levels in the US and Europe, with US LNG/LPG inventory increasing and European natural gas inventory showing a month-on-month rise [3][17][22] Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, with a current price of 4220.00 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.38% [8] - US NYMEX natural gas futures closed at 3.00 USD per million BTU, down 6.55% month-on-month but up 39.15% year-on-year [8][11] 2. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in July was 537720.00 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 10.89% [16] - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for June was 348.89 billion cubic meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.33% but a year-on-year increase of 3.33% [16] 3. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, US LNG/LPG inventory was 190026 thousand barrels, with a month-on-month increase of 6.13% [17] - European natural gas inventory reached 809.07 billion kWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 15.90% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.20% [22] 4. Imports and Exports - In June, Europe’s cumulative natural gas imports were 175158.71 million cubic meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.23% but a year-on-year increase of 13.81% [24] - China's natural gas imports in July were 1063.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.09% [29]