美伊局势升级如何影响能源及油运行业 20260303 摘要 地缘冲突升级使原油供需由"过剩"转向"偏紧"，布伦特油价底部预 期从 60 美元上移至 70 美元，短期合理目标区间为 80-85 美元。 伊朗原油产量 330 万桶/日（占比 3%），若供应受损将抵消 2026 年上 半年 255 万桶/日的预期过剩量，彻底扭转市场悲观一致预期。 OPEC 于 2026 年 4 月起每月增产 20.6 万桶/日，且沙特 2 月出口已环 比增加 40 万桶/日，短期现货缓冲及 13 亿桶海上浮仓抑制了盘面溢价 的充分释放。 霍尔木兹海峡涉及全球 20%石油需求及 25%贸易量，若发生极端中断， 油价将类比 2022 年俄乌冲突初期表现，目前市场对此定价仍偏观望。 天然气受卡塔尔（LNG 出口占比 19%）断供风险影响，波动性高于原 油，欧亚现货价格单日跳涨 38%，预计短期维持高波动状态。 油运逻辑由"制裁油"转向"合规船队"需求增长，影子船队退出叠加 造船产能刚性约束，二手船价与期租价格走高预示行业高景气持续。 集运侧因胡塞武装威胁使红海复航预期再度推迟，虽难有业绩大弹性， 但龙头标的具备估值修复与高股息配置价值。 ...

全球油价曾在2022年上升至130美元/桶以上，2024年回落到100美元/桶以下。 中信里昂证券发布的报告认为，伊朗原油日产量约300万桶，仅为俄罗斯1100万桶的三分之一， 因此油价飙升至100美元/桶以上的可能性较低，短期内油价或将突破80美元/桶。 隆众资讯天然气分析师王皓浩向经济观察报表示，本轮美伊冲 突主要影响卡塔尔和阿联酋两国的LNG出口量。2025年，卡 塔尔约占全球LNG出口量的19%，阿联酋约占1%，两国合计 出口量约8600万吨。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 随着本轮美伊冲突的持续，全球LNG（液化天然气）价格均迅速上涨。截至3月3日收盘，TTF天 然气报约54.29欧元/MWh（兆瓦时），涨幅约22%。 LNG现货价格迅速走高，原因是全球最大液化天然气生产商卡塔尔能源因遭遇军事袭击停产。卡 塔尔能源负责卡塔尔所有石油和天然气业务，2025年出口量超过8000万吨，其LNG全部经由霍 尔木兹海峡出口。 全球气价上一轮大幅飙升，出现在2022年俄乌战争爆发时。2022年8月，TTF气价一度达到约 339欧元/MWh。俄罗斯是全球第二大天然气出口国，冲突爆发之后，2022年俄罗斯对欧洲天然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural gas market remains tight, with risks of short-term price spikes if colder weather occurs, despite current inventory levels not having reached seasonal lows [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract fell by 1% to €30.61 per megawatt hour, influenced by forecasts of milder weather and a significant drop in prices at the US Henry Hub [1] - EU natural gas storage levels are significantly below seasonal averages, but sufficient liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is expected to help avoid a complete supply shortage for the remainder of winter [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory withdrawals are expected to continue for several weeks, leaving the market susceptible to fluctuations due to potential cold weather [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite low gas storage levels across the region, European natural gas prices continue to hover around €30 per megawatt-hour, influenced by warmer weather forecasts and the nearing end of the heating season [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Analysts from ANZ Research indicate that the forecast of warmer weather suggests a relief in demand pressure [1] - The current gas storage level in the EU is below 34% of capacity, significantly lower than the five-year average [1] - The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract has decreased by 2.3%, settling at €30.20 per megawatt-hour [1] Group 2: Supply Risks - Depleted inventories make prices susceptible to any supply disruptions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the oil and petrochemical industry [3] Core Insights - As of January 30, 2026, domestic LNG ex-factory prices increased by 5.0% month-on-month, while U.S. natural gas futures prices rose by 19.0% month-on-month [2][8] - China's natural gas production in January 2026 increased by 11.67% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in supply [2][16] - European natural gas inventories decreased by 22.75% month-on-month, reflecting tightening supply conditions [2][19] Price Summary - Domestic LNG ex-factory price reached 4045.00 CNY/ton, up 186.00 CNY/ton from the previous month [8] - LNG import price in China was 12.10 USD/MMBtu, a month-on-month increase of 26.62% [8] - U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures closed at 4.42 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a 19.00% month-on-month increase [8][11] Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in January 2026 was 549,920 tons, an increase of 11.67% month-on-month [16] - China's apparent natural gas consumption rose to 40.812 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.69% month-on-month [16] Inventory - U.S. LNG/LPG inventory as of January 23, 2026, was 164,365 thousand barrels, down 6.66% month-on-month [19] - European natural gas inventory was 47.514 billion kWh, a decrease of 32.89% month-on-month [19][23] Import and Export - European natural gas imports for the first three weeks of January 2026 totaled 18,278 million cubic meters, a decrease of 24.82% month-on-month [24] - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe also declined, with a month-on-month decrease of 26.10% [24][29]

能源分析公司Energy Aspects的分析师James Waddell及其团队本周在一份报告中指出："鉴于库存异常低 迷，价格风险仍然偏向上行。"他们还写道，近几周来天气模型不稳定，这在一定程度上导致了天然气 价格波动加剧。 交易员们也在密切关注伊朗局势，美国总统特朗普不断升级对伊朗的威胁，令整个能源市场持续紧张。 与此同时，特朗普周四表示，他已与俄罗斯达成协议，暂停对乌克兰的空袭一周，而该国即将迎来极端 寒潮。 1月份欧洲天然气市场波动剧烈，反映出人们对欧洲脆弱的燃料平衡状况再次感到担忧。除了天然气消 费量增加外，美国冬季风暴一度中断了部分生产设施，引发美国天然气价格飙升，进而加剧了欧洲交易 员争相平仓此前的空头头寸。中东地区的紧张局势也助推了天然气价格的上涨势头。 寒潮和燃料库存迅速消耗扰乱了市场情绪，欧洲天然气价格有望创下至少两年来的最大月度涨幅。截至 发稿，3月份交割的荷兰基准天然气期货价格小幅上涨0.5%，至每兆瓦时38.77欧元。基准期货周五小幅 走高，本月累计涨幅约为38%。这是自2023年夏季以来的最大涨幅，如果日度涨幅能够保持，则可能成 为自四年前能源危机以来的最大涨幅。 虽然随着美国出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges that fluctuations in external natural gas prices have a certain impact on its natural gas costs [1] Group 1 - The company stated that it will comply with legal regulations regarding information disclosure and will fulfill its obligations in a timely and fair manner if any disclosure matters arise [1]

格隆汇1月27日｜外媒报道称，由于美国全国多地遭遇严寒天气，供暖需求激增，同时供应也出现中 断，天然气价格持续攀升。美国时间当地时间周一下午12点45分，天然气近月合约涨破7美元/百万英 热，为2022年以来首次，较上周五收盘价上涨了40%。与此同时，据交易员称，路易斯安那州亨利港交 付的天然气现货价格一度高达53美元/百万英热。在寒冷的东北部地区，伊罗奎奥斯区2号枢纽的现货价 格则超过200美元/百万英热。这场冬季风暴目前估计已导致美国12%的天然气产量中断。交易员们正密 切关注这场风暴对美国天然气产量造成的中断会持续多久。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in U.S. natural gas prices due to extreme winter weather, with prices rising nearly 20% and reaching over $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1][2] - A winter storm has caused over 10% of U.S. natural gas production to temporarily shut down, coinciding with a sharp increase in demand for heating and electricity generation [1] - The extreme cold has put immense pressure on the electrical grid and severely disrupted transportation, leading to thousands of flight cancellations [1] Group 2 - The U.S. LNG export facilities have seen natural gas delivery volumes drop to their lowest levels in a year due to the winter storm [2] - Analysts predict that fluctuations in U.S. natural gas prices will become increasingly important for the value and risk of the LNG market over the next five years [2] - The volatility in near-month contract prices is also influenced by the upcoming expiration of the February contract, which is expected to reduce market liquidity [2][3]

本周，天然气价格出现大幅飙升，究其原因，是美国全国大部分地区的气温预计将低于正常水平。这种低温天气很可能促使天然气消费量上升，同时导致库 存减少。尤其值得关注的是，此次寒冷天气在南部产气州影响显著，引发了人们对于管道内水结冰的担忧。一旦管道内水结冰，极有可能从本周末起对天然 气产量造成干扰。 智通财经APP获悉，在美国交易员纷纷平仓空头头寸，且市场为应对一场历史性冬季风暴做好准备后，美国天然气期货结束了创纪录的连续三日上涨行情。 周五当天，近月合约价格一度大幅下跌7.6%，跌至每百万英热单位4.660美元，而在此前的三个交易日里，该合约价格累计涨幅已高达63%。尽管如此，从 本周整体情况来看，天然气期货价格仍有望创下自1990年以来的最大单周涨幅。 在供应收紧与需求激增的双重压力下，此前持看跌立场的对冲基金被迫进行大规模空头回补，从而推动天然气价格在周四短暂大幅上涨。数据显示，天然气 价格周四曾短暂升至每百万英热单位5.50美元以上，花旗集团周四的一项分析显示，这一价格水平足以让所有空头头寸遭受重创、难以为继。 截至发稿，2月合约下跌3.39%，至每百万英热单位4.87美元。尽管周五市场出现回调，但天然气基本 ...