天胶早报- 2026年3月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 2、基差：现货16850，基差15 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：市场进入偏空季节，保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：现货偏强，青岛库存累库，轮胎开工率高位 中性 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [4] - **Spot**: Spot is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price remained flat on October 21st [4][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are continuously decreasing, and Qingdao region inventories are also decreasing. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week-on-week and year-on-year, while the Qingdao region inventory decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year [4][14][17] - **Tire Operating Rate**: Tire operating rates are at a high level [4] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - **Tire Production and Exports**: Tire production reached a new high in the same period, and tire industry exports also reached a new high in the same period [29][32] Basis - The spot price is 14,300, and the basis is -850, which is bearish. The basis weakened on October 21st [4][35] Long and Short Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, resilient spot prices, and domestic anti-involution [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 930 with the spot price at 15050, showing a bearish signal. Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The import volume is rising. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising. The basis weakened on September 10th [4][14][17][20][23][26][29][32][35] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on September 10th. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [8][11] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis on September 10th was - 930 with the spot price at 15050, and it weakened on September 10th [4][35] Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Industry: Natural rubber [4] - Overall evaluation: Neutral with short - term long trading expectation [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with the market having support below, suggesting short - term long trading [4] Group 3: According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply increases, spot is strong, domestic inventory rises, tire operating rate is high, overall neutral [4] - Basis: Spot price is 14,900, basis is - 860, bearish [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, neutral [4] - Market trend: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main positions: Main net short positions with an increase in short positions, bearish [4] - Expectation: The market has support below, short - term long trading [4] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on August 27 [8] 2.2 Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17] 2.3 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] 2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month [29] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [32] 2.5 Basis - The basis strengthened on August 27 [35] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6] - Spot price is resistant to decline [6] - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6] 3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply increase [6] - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line (bullish). The main force has a net short position, and short positions are increasing (bearish). The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is advised [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [4][6]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the inventory of the exchange and in Qingdao has changed little [4][14][17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [23][26][29][32]. Basis - The spot price is 14,350, and the basis is - 10, showing a neutral state. On July 11, the basis narrowed [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on July 11. The US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]. Risk Points - World economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [6].