Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 930 with the spot price at 15050, showing a bearish signal. Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The import volume is rising. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising. The basis weakened on September 10th [4][14][17][20][23][26][29][32][35] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on September 10th. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [8][11] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis on September 10th was - 930 with the spot price at 15050, and it weakened on September 10th [4][35] Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Industry: Natural rubber [4] - Overall evaluation: Neutral with short - term long trading expectation [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with the market having support below, suggesting short - term long trading [4] Group 3: According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply increases, spot is strong, domestic inventory rises, tire operating rate is high, overall neutral [4] - Basis: Spot price is 14,900, basis is - 860, bearish [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, neutral [4] - Market trend: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main positions: Main net short positions with an increase in short positions, bearish [4] - Expectation: The market has support below, short - term long trading [4] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on August 27 [8] 2.2 Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17] 2.3 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] 2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month [29] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [32] 2.5 Basis - The basis strengthened on August 27 [35] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6] - Spot price is resistant to decline [6] - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6] 3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply increase [6] - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14350，基差-10 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费高位 • 2、原料价格偏强 • 3、现货价格抗跌 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、外部环境偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预 ...