信达证券主要观点如下： 清洁能源政策限制下的煤炭出口大国，新增煤炭产能有限 智通财经APP获悉，信达证券发布研报称，在煤炭布局加速西移、资源费与吨煤投资大幅提升背景下， 国内经济开发刚性成本和国外进口煤成本的抬升均有望支撑煤价中枢保持高位。当前，煤炭板块仍属高 业绩、高现金、高分红资产，行业仍具高景气、长周期、高壁垒特征，叠加宏观经济底部向好，央企市 值管理新规落地，煤炭央国企资产注入工作已然开启，以及一二级市场估值倒挂，愈加凸显优质煤炭公 司盈利与成长的高确定性。煤炭板块向下调整有高股息安全边际支撑，向上弹性有后续煤价上涨预期催 化，该行继续全面看多"或跃在渊"的煤炭板块。 近年来，澳大利亚煤炭行业的成本呈现出持续上升的趋势 澳大利亚动力煤行业的上市公司市场集中度较高，澳洲动力煤上市公司共六家，年产量在1.5亿吨左 右，占澳洲动力煤总产量的55%-62%。其中，BHPNSWEC、Glencore等主要煤企的成本增长尤为明 显，部分企业2023年和2024年的成本水平较2021年显著提高。成本上升受到多重因素的影响，包括通胀 压力推高的劳动力成本、能源价格上涨导致的开采及运输成本增加，以及政府对矿业征收更高的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian coal industry is experiencing a continuous rise in costs, significantly impacting the profitability of major coal companies, while the market structure and export dynamics are undergoing substantial changes [1][4][5]. Group 1: Cost Trends - The cost of coal mining in Australia has been on the rise due to inflationary pressures on labor costs, increased energy prices affecting mining and transportation, and higher taxes and environmental compliance costs imposed by the government [1][4]. - Major coal companies like BHP NSWEC and Glencore have seen significant cost increases, with some companies' costs in 2023 and 2024 notably higher than in 2021 [1][4]. - For example, Yancoal Australia's FOB cost increased from $43.8 per ton in 2019 to $63.8 per ton in 2023, indicating a general upward trend in cost components [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Australia remains a key player in the global coal export market, maintaining a 25%-30% share, despite facing limitations on new coal production capacity due to clean energy policies [2]. - The coal export volume to China has shown signs of recovery in 2023, with Australian thermal coal exports reaching 64.5 million tons, surpassing the 51.8 million tons exported in the 2020 fiscal year [3]. - However, the export of coking coal to China remains low, with only 4.4 million tons expected in the 2024 fiscal year, significantly down from 33.9 million tons in 2020, primarily due to decreased demand from the real estate sector and increased imports from Mongolia [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Supply Implications - Despite high coal prices in recent years, the profitability of Australian coal companies is declining, with average profits per ton significantly reduced compared to the peak levels of $150 per ton in 2022-2023 [5]. - If the NEWC6000 price averages around $100 per ton, major companies like BHP NSWEC and Glencore may face cash losses, while others could see profits drop below $20 per ton [5]. - The overall trend indicates that high-cost mines may face losses, which could indirectly support the Chinese thermal coal market due to supply constraints [5]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The coal sector is viewed as having high performance, cash flow, and dividend potential, with expectations of sustained high coal prices due to supply constraints and rising costs [6]. - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia are highlighted as stable investment opportunities, while others like Yancoal Energy and Electric Power Investment are noted for their potential rebound [7].