据央视新闻消息，我国最新印发了《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平(2025年版)》，推 动煤炭产业由低端向高端、煤炭产品由初级燃料向高价值产品攀升。中国煤炭工业协会数据显示，我国 煤化工原料耗煤量正以每年2000万至3000万吨的规模持续增长。新标准进一步明确将燃煤发电供热煤 耗、煤制天然气等纳入能效管控重点领域，设立标杆与基准水平，此举将有力推动煤炭从燃料向原料的 应用拓展。 信达证券认为，结合对能源产能周期的研判，煤炭供给瓶颈约束有望持续至"十五五"，仍需新规划建设 一批优质产能以保障我国中长期能源煤炭需求。在煤炭布局加速西移、资源费与吨煤投资大幅提升背景 下，国内经济开发刚性成本和国外进口煤成本的抬升均有望支撑煤价中枢保持高位。当前，煤炭板块仍 属高业绩、高现金、高分红资产，行业仍具高景气、长周期、高壁垒特征，叠加宏观经济底部向好，央 企市值管理新规落地，煤炭央国企资产注入工作已然开启，以及一二级市场估值倒挂，愈加凸显优质煤 炭公司盈利与成长的高确定性。煤炭板块向下调整有高股息安全边际支撑，向上弹性有后续煤价上涨预 期催化，继续全面看多"或跃在渊"的煤炭板块。 开源证券认为，"反内卷"重塑煤炭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is entering a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors aligning, making it an opportune time to invest in coal stocks [5] Price Trends - As of January 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [2] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton as of January 9 [3] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 71.8 USD/ton (up 0.3 USD) and ARA6000 at 95.3 USD/ton (down 1.8 USD) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 90.3%, up 8.2 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mine utilization is at 85.34%, up 5.7 percentage points [3] - Coastal provinces show an increase in daily coal consumption by 29.90 thousand tons/day (+15.11%), while inland provinces see a decrease of 7.40 thousand tons/day (-1.81%) [4][5] - Chemical coal consumption has increased by 8.36 thousand tons/day (+1.13%) [4] Inventory Levels - As of January 8, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 111.60 million tons (-3.17%), while inland provinces saw a larger drop of 409.00 million tons (-4.15%) [4] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a recommendation to invest in quality coal companies [7] - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others are highlighted for their stable operations and strong performance [7] - The coal market is expected to remain tight in the next 3-5 years, with a focus on the potential for price increases and valuation recovery [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is positioned for medium to long-term strategic investment opportunities due to its "anti-involution" characteristics, with high dividend safety margins and potential for profit recovery not yet fully reflected in valuations [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic coal production growth is stable, with a total output of 3.97 billion tons from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] - Coal imports have significantly decreased, with a total of 388 million tons imported from January to October 2025, down 11% year-on-year [2] - The construction of coal projects by major companies reached 208.7 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [3] - The coal production in the central and eastern regions is expected to decline, with a forecasted drop of about 70 million tons by 2035 [3] Demand Trends - Coal consumption remains robust, with total consumption of 3.57 billion tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [5] - The power sector is the main driver of coal demand, accounting for 63.5% of total consumption, while the chemical industry is the fastest-growing sector [5] - Non-electric demand for coal grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the chemical industry [7] Price Outlook - Coal prices are expected to stabilize within a reasonable range, with the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port at 690 yuan per ton, down 19% year-on-year [8] - The price is supported by policy measures and cost factors, with projections for 2026 indicating a price range of 730-760 yuan per ton for thermal coal [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with valuation appeal like Yanzhou Coal and Xinji Energy [11] - Attention should also be given to high-quality metallurgical coal companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal stocks on dips [12][13] - The report highlights a tight supply situation, with coal prices stabilizing at a new platform, and emphasizes the high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yield of quality coal companies [12][13] - The report suggests that the coal sector is undervalued and has potential for valuation enhancement, with a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical elasticity [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shanxi at the pit head is 780 RMB/ton, up by 15 RMB/ton week-on-week [28] - International thermal coal prices have seen slight increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 86.5 USD/ton, up by 1.5 USD/ton [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces has increased by 14.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 4.37% week-on-week [12] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption in 8 coastal provinces has also risen by 7.5 thousand tons/day, up by 4.18% week-on-week [12] Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 25.5 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 89.1 thousand tons [12] - The report indicates a decrease in available days of coal supply in both coastal and inland regions [12] Company Performance - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to maintain stable operations and robust earnings [13] - It also highlights companies with higher elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and others, suggesting they are worth monitoring [13]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price rising to 808 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 40 RMB/ton [1][2] - The report highlights a mixed trend in coal consumption, with coastal provinces experiencing an increase while inland provinces saw a decrease [4] - The overall sentiment in the coal industry remains optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [5][6] Thermal Coal Prices - As of November 8, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 808 RMB/ton, up 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [1][2] - Prices for thermal coal from various production areas have also increased, with Shaanxi Yulin's thermal block coal (Q6000) at 760 RMB/ton (+50 RMB/ton) and Inner Mongolia Dongsheng's large block premium coal (Q5500) at 634 RMB/ton (+42.8 RMB/ton) [2] Coking Coal Prices - Coking coal prices have also risen, with the price for main coking coal at Jing Tang port reaching 1800 RMB/ton, an increase of 60 RMB/ton [3] - The price for premium coking coal from Linfen is now 1670 RMB/ton, up 60 RMB/ton week-on-week [3] Consumption Trends - Coastal provinces have seen a weekly increase in coal consumption by 7,000 tons/day (+3.88%), while inland provinces experienced a decrease of 9,400 tons/day (-2.82%) [4] - The overall coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 104.20 million tons (-3.09%), indicating tighter supply conditions [4] Industry Outlook - The coal industry is entering a new upward cycle, supported by fundamental and policy factors, with a recommendation for low-cost coal sector investments [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies with strong cash flow and dividend yields, suggesting that the coal sector remains undervalued [5][6] - The anticipated seasonal demand increase and low inventory levels at ports and power plants are expected to drive further price increases in the coming months [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The report highlights that coal prices have shown signs of stabilization, and there is an expectation for price increases due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [5][13] - The report emphasizes the continued investment logic of coal capacity shortages, with a short-term balance and a long-term gap in supply [13][14] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of September 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1610 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][33] - International thermal coal prices have also seen fluctuations, with Newcastle thermal coal at 69.6 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.4 USD/ton [4][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 4.10 thousand tons/day (+1.22%) [5][13] - The report notes that the supply side is still constrained by policies, and the demand is expected to rise as winter heating needs begin [5][13] Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.59%, outperforming the broader market [16] - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their stable operations and strong performance [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a new upward cycle, with both supply and demand factors contributing to the current market dynamics, making it an opportune time for low-cost investments in the coal sector [6] Price Trends - As of August 9, the price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 678 RMB/ton, an increase of 23 RMB/ton week-on-week [2] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang port is 1630 RMB/ton, a decrease of 20 RMB/ton week-on-week [3] - International thermal coal prices have also seen increases, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 67.7 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [2] Production Capacity Utilization - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 93.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The utilization rate of sample coking coal mines is 83.89%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [3] Consumption Trends - Coastal provinces have seen an increase in daily coal consumption by 28.5 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.76% week-on-week [4] - Inland provinces have also experienced an increase in daily coal consumption by 24.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 6.42% week-on-week [4] Industry Outlook - The coal sector is expected to face supply constraints due to recent rainfall affecting production and the implementation of policies like the "276 working days" system [6] - The current market conditions suggest a solid support platform for coal prices, with expectations for further price increases [6] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [8] - Consider companies with significant price elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy, as well as high-quality metallurgical coal companies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian coal industry is experiencing a continuous rise in costs, significantly impacting the profitability of major coal companies, while the market structure and export dynamics are undergoing substantial changes [1][4][5]. Group 1: Cost Trends - The cost of coal mining in Australia has been on the rise due to inflationary pressures on labor costs, increased energy prices affecting mining and transportation, and higher taxes and environmental compliance costs imposed by the government [1][4]. - Major coal companies like BHP NSWEC and Glencore have seen significant cost increases, with some companies' costs in 2023 and 2024 notably higher than in 2021 [1][4]. - For example, Yancoal Australia's FOB cost increased from $43.8 per ton in 2019 to $63.8 per ton in 2023, indicating a general upward trend in cost components [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Australia remains a key player in the global coal export market, maintaining a 25%-30% share, despite facing limitations on new coal production capacity due to clean energy policies [2]. - The coal export volume to China has shown signs of recovery in 2023, with Australian thermal coal exports reaching 64.5 million tons, surpassing the 51.8 million tons exported in the 2020 fiscal year [3]. - However, the export of coking coal to China remains low, with only 4.4 million tons expected in the 2024 fiscal year, significantly down from 33.9 million tons in 2020, primarily due to decreased demand from the real estate sector and increased imports from Mongolia [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Supply Implications - Despite high coal prices in recent years, the profitability of Australian coal companies is declining, with average profits per ton significantly reduced compared to the peak levels of $150 per ton in 2022-2023 [5]. - If the NEWC6000 price averages around $100 per ton, major companies like BHP NSWEC and Glencore may face cash losses, while others could see profits drop below $20 per ton [5]. - The overall trend indicates that high-cost mines may face losses, which could indirectly support the Chinese thermal coal market due to supply constraints [5]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The coal sector is viewed as having high performance, cash flow, and dividend potential, with expectations of sustained high coal prices due to supply constraints and rising costs [6]. - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia are highlighted as stable investment opportunities, while others like Yancoal Energy and Electric Power Investment are noted for their potential rebound [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector during price corrections [11][12] - The supply side is tightening due to a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is increasing, particularly in inland provinces [11][12] - The coal price has established a new support level, and high-quality coal companies are characterized by strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of August 2, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 655 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][28] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.9%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week [11][45] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 44.4 thousand tons/day (+13.05%) [11][46] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 1.0 thousand tons/day (+0.45%) [11][46] Inventory Situation - As of July 31, coal inventory in inland provinces decreased by 1.20% week-on-week, while daily consumption increased [46] - Coastal provinces saw a 1.08% decrease in coal inventory week-on-week [46] Company Performance - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others [12][13]