Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that China Merchants Shekou's profits are experiencing a temporary decline, while the company focuses on stabilizing its core investment and sales operations [1] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.005-1.254 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 69%-75% [1] - The expected non-recurring net profit is projected to be 154-231 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 91%-94% [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to solidify its market position in high-tier core cities, aiming to create "China Merchants Good Houses" with sales consistently ranking among the top [1] - By 2025, the company aims to rank in the top 2 in sales in Shanghai and top 5 in cities such as Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [1] Industry Outlook - In the context of ongoing policy support and a gradual balance between supply and demand in the industry, the company, as a leading state-owned enterprise, possesses significant resource endowments and credit advantages [1] - The company's steady investment and sales rhythm is expected to allow it to benefit first as the industry stabilizes [1] Sales and Land Reserves - The company maintains a strong sales position within the industry and has high-quality land reserves, with advantages in high-tier cities continuing to be reinforced [1] - There is an expectation for gradual performance recovery, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in gross margin and impairment provisions, with projected 2024 revenue of CNY 311.67 billion, down 10.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 5 billion, down 58.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, with a sales area of 17.966 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7%, and a sales revenue of CNY 323.03 billion, down 23.5% [2][4]. - The company has significantly increased its investment in first-tier cities, with 99% of its investment in core cities and 74% in first-tier cities [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets decreased by 7.1% year-on-year to CNY 1,335.11 billion, while total liabilities decreased by 9.8% to CNY 992.58 billion [4][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decline to 14.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is projected to be 1.6% [1][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at CNY 0.43, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.5x [4][11]. Market Position - The company has maintained its position as the top seller in the industry for two consecutive years, with a market share of 7.1% in 38 core cities, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has improved its cash collection rate, achieving a collection amount of CNY 327.7 billion in 2024, with a collection rate of 101% [2][4]. Investment Strategy - The company plans to focus on high-quality land acquisitions in core cities, with a land acquisition intensity of 21.1% in 2024, down 17.5 percentage points year-on-year, and an equity ratio of 88.1%, the highest in nearly a decade [3][4]. - The report suggests that as the gross margin from land acquisitions recovers, the profit margin from settlements is expected to improve [4].