东吴证券研报指出，招商蛇口利润阶段性下滑，聚焦核心投销稳健。公司预计2025年实现归母净利润 10.05-12.54亿元，同比下降69%-75%；实现扣非净利润1.54-2.31亿元，同比下降91%-94%。公司持续巩 固高能级核心城市市场地位，打造"招商好房子"，销量稳居前列，2025年销量排名在上海进入TOP2， 在深圳、北京、杭州、成都等城市进入TOP5。在政策端持续发力、行业供需逐步平衡的背景下，公司 作为央企龙头，资源禀赋与信用优势突出，投销节奏稳健，有望在行业企稳过程中率先受益。公司销售 稳居行业头部，土储优质，高能级城市优势持续巩固，业绩有望逐步修复，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in gross margin and impairment provisions, with projected 2024 revenue of CNY 311.67 billion, down 10.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 5 billion, down 58.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, with a sales area of 17.966 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7%, and a sales revenue of CNY 323.03 billion, down 23.5% [2][4]. - The company has significantly increased its investment in first-tier cities, with 99% of its investment in core cities and 74% in first-tier cities [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets decreased by 7.1% year-on-year to CNY 1,335.11 billion, while total liabilities decreased by 9.8% to CNY 992.58 billion [4][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decline to 14.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is projected to be 1.6% [1][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at CNY 0.43, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.5x [4][11]. Market Position - The company has maintained its position as the top seller in the industry for two consecutive years, with a market share of 7.1% in 38 core cities, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has improved its cash collection rate, achieving a collection amount of CNY 327.7 billion in 2024, with a collection rate of 101% [2][4]. Investment Strategy - The company plans to focus on high-quality land acquisitions in core cities, with a land acquisition intensity of 21.1% in 2024, down 17.5 percentage points year-on-year, and an equity ratio of 88.1%, the highest in nearly a decade [3][4]. - The report suggests that as the gross margin from land acquisitions recovers, the profit margin from settlements is expected to improve [4].