Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate found temporary support around 1.3390 after three consecutive days of decline, with the market awaiting the UK Q3 GDP data to assess the economic situation [2] - The GBP's movement is constrained by monetary policy expectations, with the market generally believing that the Bank of England may delay its first rate cut until June 2026, while some market pricing tools still indicate predictions for an earlier cut, adding uncertainty to the GBP outlook [2] - The USD has shown strong performance, driven by a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path, with recent statements from Fed officials emphasizing the need for more economic data to confirm policy direction [3] Group 2 - The Fed's latest dot plot indicates that policymakers' median rate expectations for 2026 remain relatively high, suggesting that the pace of rate cuts may be slower than some investors anticipate [3] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates at the next meeting has increased, while the probability of a rate cut has decreased, providing short-term support for the USD [3] - The relative strength of GBP and USD is balanced, with GBP constrained by unverified economic data and fixed rate hike expectations, while USD benefits from strengthened expectations of "high rates" and decreased likelihood of short-term policy adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The direction of U.S. trade policy may shift between positive and negative, which could lead to changes in the policy path of the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - A member of the Bank of Japan indicated that the U.S. trade policy's trajectory is uncertain and could impact Japan's monetary policy [1]