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中邮证券:维持优然牧业“买入”评级 公司利润有望加速释放
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 06:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that YouRan Agriculture (09858) is expected to benefit from the continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory and a significant increase in beef prices, which will likely enhance the profitability from culling cows. Additionally, the dairy industry is effectively adjusting market supply through investments in deep processing capacity, which is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of industry capacity and support a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [1][5]. Group 2 - The continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory is deepening and accelerating, with a total decrease of 540,000 heads (8.1%) over the past 20 months since reaching a peak in February 2024. This reduction is expected to stabilize fresh milk prices and alleviate previous supply excess pressures [1][5]. - The dairy processing industry is expanding deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder significantly outpacing liquid milk in raw milk consumption, thus playing a crucial role in balancing market supply [2][5]. Group 3 - Beef prices have started to reverse, with the average wholesale price in China increasing from 57 yuan/kg in February to 66 yuan/kg in December, a rise of 15.79%. This price increase is expected to enhance the profitability from culling cows, as the price of culled cows is linked to market beef prices [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the profitability from culling cows will increase further with rising beef prices, which will also facilitate the further reduction of dairy cow inventory and help achieve a balance in raw milk supply and demand [3][4]. Group 4 - The company projects that from 2025 to 2027, the culling of dairy cows will generate incremental profits of 1.27 billion, 2.13 billion, and 3.78 billion yuan, respectively, based on expected price increases for culled cows [4]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 208.05 billion, 217.22 billion, and 229.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 5.12 billion, 16.78 billion, and 28.56 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth [5].