债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（1013-1019）：央行投放偏短及利 率兜底过渡期临近，存单供给有诉求 债券周报 2025 年 10 月 19 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❖ 供给方面，存单净融资由负转正，期限结构拉长。本周（10 月 13 日至 10 月 19 日）存单发行规模为 7295.30 亿元，净融资额为 2246.60 亿元（9 月 29 日至 10 月 12 日为-492.30 亿元）。供给结构上，本周国有行发行占比由 22%下降 至 14%；股份行发行占比由 26%上升至 36%。期限方面，1Y 存单发行占比由 14%上升至 19%。存单发行加权期限抬升至 6.07 个月（前值为 5.22 个月）。 下周（10 月 20 至 10 月 26 日）到期规模上行，存单到期规模为 6171.1 亿元， 周度环比增加 1122.4 亿元。 ❖ 需求方面，货基与理财为二级配置主力，一级市场募集率下行。（1）就二级 配置机构而言，货币市场基金与理财为二级市场配置主力，周度净买入分别为 886.50 亿元和 352.21 亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - beginning deposit outflows and pre - season end asset allocation by wealth management products limit the pricing restoration of certificates of deposit (CDs). The supply side may still have demand due to potential deposit losses and large CD maturities from November to December. The demand side is restricted by the "front - running" of wealth management products. However, with the central bank's supportive operations, liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose in the fourth quarter, which may protect against CD yield increases. If policy rates remain unchanged, 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs may fluctuate in a narrow range around 1.65% [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: Net financing is slightly negative, and the term structure is compressed - In the past two weeks (September 29 - October 12), the CD issuance scale was 25.456 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 4.923 billion yuan (compared to - 18.879 billion yuan from September 22 - September 28). The proportion of state - owned banks' issuance decreased from 38% to 6%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 25% to 46%. The proportion of 1 - year CD issuance dropped from 29% to 8%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 5.20 months (from 7.16 months). Next week (October 13 - October 19), the maturity scale will increase to 50.487 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 20.108 billion yuan [2][5]. 3.2 Demand: Money market funds are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate has declined overall - In the secondary market, money market funds and other products are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 53.756 billion yuan and 26.527 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 136.865 billion yuan to 60.859 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) dropped to around 82% [2]. 3.3 Valuation: The primary - market CD pricing has slightly decreased, and the secondary - market yields have declined - The weighted issuance rate of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs slightly dropped to around 1.66%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 17bp, while the 3 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year varieties decreased by 3bp, and the 6 - month variety decreased by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 15% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 6.14BP to 11.43BP, at around the 17% quantile, while that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.21BP to 6.00BP, close to the 7% quantile. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs generally declined, with the 1 - month variety down 17bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year down 2bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month down 3bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs remained at the 24% historical quantile [2][15]. 3.4 Comparison: The post - quarter - end CD restoration is relatively limited - After the quarter - end, the CD restoration was relatively limited, and the spread between medium - short - term notes and CDs significantly compressed. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 narrowed from 17.72BP to 14.37BP; the spread with R007:15DMA narrowed from 14.34BP to 7.21BP. The 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 30.25BP to 28.84BP, with the quantile dropping to around 13%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 6.31BP to 4.52BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. Additionally, the spread between AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 12.83BP to 7.89BP, and the quantile dropped to 36% [2][29].