1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Supply strength may increase, but in the context of relatively abundant short - term funds, it may not create pressure for "raising prices to increase volume". The cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) since the beginning of the year is -1.2 trillion. Due to relatively sufficient central bank injections and stronger - than - expected bank deposit growth, the willingness to issue CDs is relatively limited. However, from a weekly high - frequency perspective, the weekly issuance volume has remained at a relatively high level of 70 - 80 billion yuan since March. In April, under the influence of upgraded inter - bank supervision, there may be a short - term increase in the willingness to issue CDs. On the demand side, April is a seasonal peak month for wealth management, and high - interest current deposits may partially flow into CDs. The pressure of capital fluctuations is controllable, and with the protection of allocation power, the pressure to raise CD prices may be limited. The overall operation may maintain a low - level shock, and the adjustment pressure above 1.55% may be limited [2][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply: Net financing turns slightly positive, and the term structure continues to narrow - This week (March 23 - 29), the CD issuance volume was 772.02 billion yuan, and the net financing was 73.82 billion yuan (last week was -404.17 billion yuan). In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 16% to 30%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 31% to 34%. The weighted issuance term of CDs continued to shorten to 7.86 months (previous value was 7.98 months) [2][5]. - Next week (March 30 - April 5), the maturity volume will decrease significantly to 151.33 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 546.87 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in joint - stock banks and city commercial banks. In terms of term, the maturity amounts of 3M and 1Y CDs are relatively high, at 70.58 billion yuan and 55.3 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. Demand: Large - scale banks are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate remains unchanged - In the secondary - market allocation, the weekly net purchase of small and medium - sized banks increased from 12.115 billion yuan to 44.775 billion yuan; that of large - scale banks decreased slightly from 54.007 billion yuan to 50.119 billion yuan; the weekly net sale of money market funds increased from 47.498 billion yuan to 81.25 billion yuan; the weekly net purchase of wealth management increased from 2.714 billion yuan to 21.071 billion yuan; the weekly net purchase of other types was 20.535 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.802 billion yuan compared with last week (36.337 billion yuan) [2][14]. - In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) remained at 92%. By institution, the subscription rates of rural commercial banks and state - owned banks remained unchanged at 93% and 96% respectively. The subscription rate of joint - stock banks decreased from 94% to 93%, and that of city commercial banks increased from 87% to 88% [2][14]. Valuation: The primary and secondary pricing of CDs continues to fluctuate at a low level - In primary pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1Y joint - stock bank CDs remained unchanged at 1.53%. Specifically, the 3M and 9M CDs of joint - stock banks increased by 1bp each compared with last week, around 1.52%. The 1Y variety pricing continued to fluctuate at a low level, remaining unchanged at 1.53%. In terms of term spread, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks was 4.57bp, at the 13% historical quantile. In terms of credit spread, the spread between 1Y city commercial banks and joint - stock banks was 10.21BP, with the spread quantile around 14%; the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks was 12.18BP, with the spread quantile around 38% [2][18]. - In secondary yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs remained in a low - level shock. Specifically, the 6M, 9M, and 1Y varieties increased by 1bp each compared with last week, with the 1Y variety around 1.53%. The 1M and 3M varieties decreased by 4bp and 1bp respectively compared with last week. In terms of term spread, the 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs was 7bp, at the 21% historical quantile level [2][28]. Comparison: The spreads between CDs and Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds have slightly widened - The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated CD yield and the DR007:15DMA capital spread widened from 7.35BP to 8.38BP; the spread with the R007:15DMA capital spread widened from 1.42BP to 2.53BP; the spread between CDs and Treasury bonds increased slightly from 25.82BP to 27.32BP, with the quantile rising to 31%; the spread between CDs and policy - bank bonds increased from 4.41BP to 6.48BP, with the quantile rising to around 7%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium - and short - term commercial paper and CDs narrowed from 1.72BP to 1.68BP, with the quantile dropping to around 9% [2][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The interest rate cut space is limited, and around 1.55% may be the "resistance level" for the pricing of 1-year state-owned and joint-stock bank certificates of deposit. The supply of certificates of deposit may be relatively active in March due to a high maturity scale and strong credit performance. There is still a strong allocation preference from small and medium-sized banks and product accounts. Policy rate cuts may be relatively cautious, and if the policy rate does not cut, the probability of further compression of MLF pricing is limited, so the downward breakthrough space for 1-year state-owned and joint-stock bank certificates of deposit is narrow [2][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply: Net financing turns positive, and the term structure continues to widen - This week (March 2 - March 8), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 71.72 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 12.921 billion yuan (last week was -21.271 billion yuan). The issuance proportion of state-owned banks increased from 15% to 19%, and that of joint-stock banks decreased from 46% to 35%. The weighted issuance term of certificates of deposit lengthened to 8.66 months (previous value was 6.96 months) [2][5]. - Next week (March 9 - March 15), the maturity scale will increase significantly to 100.64 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 41.888 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state-owned and joint-stock banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M certificates of deposit are relatively high, at 25.7 billion yuan and 23.026 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. Demand: Small and medium-sized banks are the main secondary allocation players, and the primary market subscription rate declines slightly - In terms of secondary allocation institutions, the weekly net purchases of small and medium-sized banks increased slightly from 7.4479 billion yuan to 18.2892 billion yuan; the weekly net purchases of large banks increased from -4.9069 billion yuan to 197.43 yuan; the weekly net sales of money market funds increased from 4.5129 billion yuan to 16.3888 billion yuan; other types of institutions had weekly net purchases of 4.6689 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8155 billion yuan compared with last week (2.8534 billion yuan) [2][19]. - In terms of primary issuance, the overall primary market subscription rate (15DMA) declined to 93%. By institution, the subscription rate of joint-stock banks remained unchanged at 96%, that of city commercial banks decreased from 89% to 87%, that of state-owned banks decreased from 99% to 98%, and that of rural commercial banks increased from 84% to 85% [2][19]. Valuation: The primary and secondary pricing of certificates of deposit declines slightly - In terms of primary pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1-year joint-stock bank certificates of deposit declined to 1.56%. Specifically, the 3M certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks declined by 5bp compared with last week, the 9M certificates of deposit declined by 4bp, and the 1-year variety continued to fluctuate at a low level, declining by 4bp compared with last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint-stock banks is 4.15bp, at the 12% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1-year city commercial banks and joint-stock banks is 9.7BP, with the spread quantile around 12%; the spread between rural commercial banks and joint-stock banks is 12.05BP, with the spread quantile around 37% [2][21]. - In terms of secondary yields, the yields of AAA-rated certificates of deposit declined slightly. Specifically, the 1M variety remained unchanged compared with last week, the 3M and 9M varieties declined by 5bp compared with last week, the 6M variety declined by 4bp, and the 1Y variety declined by 3bp, around 1.55%. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA-rated certificates of deposit is 4.5bp, at the 17% historical quantile level [2][31]. Comparison: The spreads between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds and policy bank bonds have narrowed - In terms of asset comparison, the spreads between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds and policy bank bonds have narrowed. Specifically, the spread between the yield of 1-year AAA-rated certificates of deposit and the DR007:15DMA funding spread widened from -7.58BP to 8.56BP; the spread with the R007:15DMA funding spread narrowed from -1.75BP to -0.65BP; the spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds slightly narrowed from 3.27BP to 1.98BP, and the quantile declined to 17%; the spread between certificates of deposit and policy bank bonds narrowed from 2.41BP to -2.20BP, and the quantile declined to around 33%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium and short-term notes and certificates of deposit widened from 0BP to 1.68BP, and the quantile increased to around 8% [2][37].

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1013 - 1019): The Central Bank's Short - term Injection and the Approaching Transition Period of Interest Rate Floor, CD Supply Has Demands [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of certificates of deposit (CDs) may still have demands, and the short - term pricing may be in a high - level volatile state due to the central bank's short - term injection and the approaching transition period of the "interest rate adjustment floor clause." The issuance willingness of CDs has been strong since October, and there may be disturbances on the bank's liability side in the future. The demand from wealth management and money funds may be limited seasonally. The central bank is expected to continue the idea of over - renewal of MLF. The 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs are expected to fluctuate around 1.65 - 1.7% [2][49]. Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Turns Positive, and the Maturity Structure Lengthens - This week (October 13 - 19), the CD issuance scale was 729.53 billion yuan, and the net financing was 224.66 billion yuan (compared with - 49.23 billion yuan from September 29 to October 12). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks decreased from 22% to 14%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 26% to 36% [2][5]. - In terms of maturity, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 14% to 19%, and the weighted issuance maturity of CDs rose to 6.07 months (previously 5.22 months). Next week (October 20 - 26), the maturity scale will increase to 617.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 112.24 billion yuan [2][5]. Demand: Money Market Funds and Wealth Management Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocators, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Declines - In the secondary market, money market funds and wealth management products are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 8.865 billion yuan and 3.5221 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks increased from 6.0859 billion yuan to 10.2508 billion yuan [2]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) dropped to around 86%. Among different types of banks, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 86% to 84%, that of state - owned banks decreased from 89% to 85%, and that of joint - stock banks remained around 83% [18][20]. Valuation: Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market of CDs, and the Secondary - Market Yield Rises - In the primary market, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.67%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety remained unchanged from last week, while the 3 - month and 9 - month varieties increased by 2bp, the 6 - month variety increased by 3bp, and the 1 - year variety increased by 4bp [2][20]. - In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks increased by 3bp, at the 21% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.43BP to 7.76BP, at around the 6% quantile, while the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 6.00BP to 8.27BP, close to the 15% quantile [2][20]. - In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs generally increased. The 1 - month and 3 - month varieties increased by 3bp, the 6 - month variety increased by 2bp, the 9 - month variety increased by 1bp, and the 1 - year variety increased slightly to the 7% historical quantile level since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs decreased to the 17% historical quantile level [29]. Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - The spread between 1 - year AAA - rated CDs and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 widened from 14.37BP to 18.44BP; the spread with the 15 - day moving average of R007 widened from 7.21BP to 9.99BP. The yield of 1 - year treasury bonds increased by 6.93bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 28.84BP to 22.29BP, with the quantile dropping to around 3%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.52BP to 4.13BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 7.89BP to 5.91BP, with the quantile dropping to 24% [2][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - beginning deposit outflows and pre - season end asset allocation by wealth management products limit the pricing restoration of certificates of deposit (CDs). The supply side may still have demand due to potential deposit losses and large CD maturities from November to December. The demand side is restricted by the "front - running" of wealth management products. However, with the central bank's supportive operations, liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose in the fourth quarter, which may protect against CD yield increases. If policy rates remain unchanged, 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs may fluctuate in a narrow range around 1.65% [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: Net financing is slightly negative, and the term structure is compressed - In the past two weeks (September 29 - October 12), the CD issuance scale was 25.456 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 4.923 billion yuan (compared to - 18.879 billion yuan from September 22 - September 28). The proportion of state - owned banks' issuance decreased from 38% to 6%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 25% to 46%. The proportion of 1 - year CD issuance dropped from 29% to 8%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 5.20 months (from 7.16 months). Next week (October 13 - October 19), the maturity scale will increase to 50.487 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 20.108 billion yuan [2][5]. 3.2 Demand: Money market funds are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate has declined overall - In the secondary market, money market funds and other products are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 53.756 billion yuan and 26.527 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 136.865 billion yuan to 60.859 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) dropped to around 82% [2]. 3.3 Valuation: The primary - market CD pricing has slightly decreased, and the secondary - market yields have declined - The weighted issuance rate of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs slightly dropped to around 1.66%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 17bp, while the 3 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year varieties decreased by 3bp, and the 6 - month variety decreased by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 15% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 6.14BP to 11.43BP, at around the 17% quantile, while that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.21BP to 6.00BP, close to the 7% quantile. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs generally declined, with the 1 - month variety down 17bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year down 2bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month down 3bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs remained at the 24% historical quantile [2][15]. 3.4 Comparison: The post - quarter - end CD restoration is relatively limited - After the quarter - end, the CD restoration was relatively limited, and the spread between medium - short - term notes and CDs significantly compressed. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 narrowed from 17.72BP to 14.37BP; the spread with R007:15DMA narrowed from 14.34BP to 7.21BP. The 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 30.25BP to 28.84BP, with the quantile dropping to around 13%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 6.31BP to 4.52BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. Additionally, the spread between AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 12.83BP to 7.89BP, and the quantile dropped to 36% [2][29].