Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive financing cost of the real economy continues to decline, leading to a decrease in banks' net interest margins, raising concerns about where to invest in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Since the beginning of the year, deposit rates for large certificates of deposit (CDs) have dropped significantly, with over 40 banks reporting rates below 1% for terms under one year and many three-year rates below 2% [1][6] - The average three-year large CD rate among the six major banks is around 1.55%, down from over 3% three years ago, indicating a substantial decline in long-term deposit yields [1][6] - Smaller banks are also experiencing a convergence in rates, with some three-month products recently issued at rates between 0.93% and 0.95% [1][6] Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Banking Strategy - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to a historical low of 1.42%, with large banks at 1.31%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability [2][7] - The reduction in high-cost liabilities, such as large CDs, is seen as a strategy to stabilize net interest margins amid declining financing costs for the real economy [2][7] Group 3: Future of Deposits and Market Reactions - A significant amount of deposits, estimated at around 50 trillion yuan, will reach maturity in 2026, raising questions about potential "deposit migration" as these funds face re-pricing [3][8] - Despite the low rates, many depositors are expected to keep their funds in the banking system due to their preference for stable returns and low risk, with a high deposit retention rate projected to remain above 90% [3][8] - Financial institutions are encouraged to balance business development with risk management as they navigate the upcoming re-pricing of deposits [4][9]

报告透过逆向推算模型估计，2026年四大行将有20.37万亿元长期存款到期，较2025年的18.34万亿元增 加2.03万亿元。若以四大行约占全国存款总量40%的比例推算，2026年全国长期定期存款到期规模将达 50.93万亿元，较2025年增加5.08万亿元。 2026年将开启银行业史上最大的负债再定价窗口，报告强调，这不仅能减缓净息差下滑速度，也为银行 盈利能力恢复创造条件。尽管面临息差压力，报告认为银行业基本面在2026年将保持稳健。中银国际覆 盖的商业银行，其2025年归母净利润预计实现同比小幅增长，2026年增速有望提升至约2%。 中银国际发布研报称，维持对内银板块H股"增持"评级，并列出具体推荐名单，首选工商银行 （601398）(01398)，认为其估值在同业中相对吸引; 同时建议买入农业银行（601288）(01288)、招商银 行（600036）(03968)、建设银行（601939）(00939)、邮储银行（601658）(01658)及中国光大银行 （601818）(06818)。 中银国际预测，随着超过50万亿元人民币(下同)的长期定期存款将于2026年集中到期，银行业负债成本 有望迎 ...

报告透过逆向推算模型估计，2026年四大行将有20.37万亿元长期存款到期，较2025年的18.34万亿元增 加2.03万亿元。若以四大行约占全国存款总量40%的比例推算，2026年全国长期定期存款到期规模将达 50.93万亿元，较2025年增加5.08万亿元。 2026年将开启银行业史上最大的负债再定价窗口，报告强调，这不仅能减缓净息差下滑速度，也为银行 盈利能力恢复创造条件。尽管面临息差压力，报告认为银行业基本面在2026年将保持稳健。中银国际覆 盖的商业银行，其2025年归母净利润预计实现同比小幅增长，2026年增速有望提升至约2%。 中银国际预测，随着超过50万亿元人民币(下同)的长期定期存款将于2026年集中到期，银行业负债成本 有望迎来重新定价窗口，这将显著缓解近年困扰行业的净息差下行压力。 根据中国人民银行数据，截至2025年6月末，内地人民币存款总额已达320.17万亿元。其中四大国有商 业银行一至五年期存款占比，从2024年末的24.5%高位回落至23.5%，显示存款结构出现初步改善迹 象。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，维持对内银板块H股"增持"评级，并列出具体推荐名单，首 选工 ...