证券研究报告 | 2025年08月23日 平安银行（000001.SZ）2025 年中报点评 中性 收入利润降幅收窄，资产质量稳定 收入利润降幅收窄。2025 上半年实现营业收入 694 亿元，同比下降 10.0%， 降幅较一季报收窄 3.0 个百分点；上半年实现归母净利润 249 亿元，同比下 降 3.9%，降幅较一季报收窄 1.7 个百分点。上半年年化加权平均 ROE10.7%， 同比下降 1.1 个百分点。 资产规模及零售 AUM 保持增长。2025 年二季末总资产同比增长 2.1%至 5.87 万亿元，较年初增长 1.8%。二季度末存款本金较年初增长 4.6%至 3.69 万亿 元，贷款总额较年初增长 1.0%至 3.41 万亿元。其中对公贷款投放较好，较 年初增长 8.3%，零售贷款规模较年初下降 2.3%。二季度末核心一级资本充 足率 9.31%，较年初略有回升。表外方面，二季度末零售 AUM 为 4.21 万亿元， 较年初增长 0.4%，同比增长 2.2%。 净息差收窄。上半年日均净息差 1.80%，同比降低 16bps，主要受市场利率 下行、贷款结构调整等因素影响。环比来看，二季度日均净息差 ...

8月19日，嵊州瑞丰村镇银行发布存款利率公示，该行人民币个人定期存款整存整取三个月、六个月、 一年、二年、三年、五年的年化利率分别调整为0.80%、1.10%、1.15%、1.15%、1.30%、1.30%，较调 整前下降10到20个基点不等。此外，高密惠民村镇银行、贵定恒升村镇银行等银行亦宣布调降部分期限 存款利率。 "我行的三年期定期存款利率，8月20日刚调降10个基点，从1.85%降到了1.75%。"江苏银行北京西城区 某支行理财经理对记者表示。 近期，包括村镇银行、城商行等在内的多家银行，纷纷调降存款利率。 受行业竞争激烈、贷款利率普遍下行等因素影响，银行净息差趋窄。下调存款利率降成本、缓解净息差 压力，成为大多数银行的应对策略。部分银行理财经理透露，未来存款利率仍有调降可能性。 多家银行调降存款利率 "1.85%只有今天！"日前，江苏银行一理财经理发布的朋友圈内容显示，该行三年期定期存款利率将再 次迎来调降。 江苏银行一理财经理8月19日发布的朋友圈 记者实地走访江苏银行北京地区部分网点，江苏银行北京西城区某支行理财经理介绍："除三年期定期 存款利率从原来的1.85%下调至1.75%，降了10个基点 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a continuous internal differentiation within the banking sector, with an overall improvement in asset quality [3][5]. - The net profit growth rate for commercial banks in the first half of 2025 has turned negative at -1.2%, but the decline in profit has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [5]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased slightly to 1.42%, showing resilience despite the decline [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio has improved, decreasing to 1.49%, indicating a manageable risk level [5][3]. - The report suggests a strategic shift towards reallocation rather than trading, driven by changes in funding structures and stable inflows from passive indices [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Indicators - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of banking institutions reached 403 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 2 basis points from the previous quarter to 1.49%, with a provision coverage ratio of 212% [3]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit growth rate for large banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks improved compared to Q1, while rural commercial banks saw a decline of 7.9% [5]. - The report notes that the profitability of large banks is stabilizing, while rural banks are facing increased credit costs due to ongoing reforms [5]. Asset Quality - The report indicates a continuous improvement in asset quality, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing across various bank types [5]. - The provision coverage ratio has increased by 3.84 percentage points to 212%, indicating a stable risk mitigation capacity [5][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the A-share joint-stock bank sector and certain high-quality regional banks, while also considering Hong Kong-listed large banks for their dividend advantages [5].

Fiscal Policy - The government's net financing from bonds has reached 9.5 trillion, surpassing any year except 2023 and 2024, with an additional 4-5 trillion expected to be issued this year [1] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, while special bonds will maintain a steady issuance pace similar to previous years [1] - There is a likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year to support economic resilience, potentially through special treasury bonds or increased deficits [1] Monetary Policy - A prediction of stock liquidity easing in the second half of the year, but the overall impact may not be as significant as previously anticipated due to financial stability constraints [1] - The central bank is expected to restart bond purchases in the third quarter, primarily due to a lack of long-term liquidity tools [2] - The bank's net interest margin is a significant factor limiting the extent of interest rate reductions, with a focus on the sustainability of banks' profitability [2] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently in a state of oscillation, with strategies suggested for gradually increasing long-term bond holdings at high yield points and reducing them at low yield points [3] - The yield curve is at a relatively high level compared to the year, indicating a neutral to low historical position, with financial stability being a key constraint on monetary policy [2][3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **"anti-involution" policy** targeting industries such as **electric vehicles** and **solar energy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **"anti-involution" policy** addresses excessive competition in advanced industries, which has emerged due to weak demand following the **2021 real estate market downturn** and previous supply-driven incentive mechanisms [1][2]. - Current measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts by focusing on **downstream price pressures** in advanced industries, addressing **private sector overcapacity**, and considering the macroeconomic context of **high debt** and **aging population** [1][3]. - Strategies to improve profit margins include **supply-side cleanup** and gradual demand stimulation, with specific measures such as: - **Trade credit plan** of **138 billion RMB** [3]. - **National fertility subsidies** totaling **100 billion RMB** [4]. - **Tuition fee reductions** amounting to **30 billion RMB** [5]. - Despite these stimulus measures, the **actual GDP growth rate** may fall below **4.5%** in the second half of **2025**, with a **nominal GDP growth rate** around **3.5%** and a **GDP deflator index** expected to remain low at **-0.8% to -0.9%** [1][5]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Key indicators for assessing the success of reforms include: - Comprehensive inflation recovery as reflected in the **Producer Price Index (PPI)** and **Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)**. - Stability in **corporate profit margins** and **bank net interest margins**. - An increase in the share of consumption in GDP and a decrease in household savings rates [1][6]. - Potential risk signals include: - Top-down capacity cuts without demand stimulation, which could harm downstream industries. - External factors like **U.S. tariffs** negatively impacting Chinese exports [2][6]. - Structural reforms needed for sustainable development include: - Adjusting local government incentive mechanisms to focus on improving living standards. - Reforming the tax system to encourage direct taxes and promote a consumption-oriented economy [2][6]. - The period starting from **September 2024** is crucial for China's efforts to combat deflation, indicating a deeper understanding of the challenges at the microeconomic level [7].

Core Viewpoint - Several listed banks reported positive performance for the first half of 2025, with both operating income and net profit increasing year-on-year, while maintaining steady asset growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Five banks reported year-on-year growth in both operating income and net profit, with Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank each exceeding 200 million yuan in operating income [2]. - Ningbo Bank's total assets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, growing by 11.04% year-on-year, while Hangzhou Bank's total assets were 2.24 trillion yuan, up by 5.83% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank exceeded 100 million yuan, with figures of 147.72 million yuan and 116.62 million yuan respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for the five banks remained stable, with Qilu Bank reporting an NPL ratio of 1.09%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3]. - Changshu Bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, also showing a slight decrease, while both Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank maintained an NPL ratio of 0.76% [3]. Group 3: Service to the Real Economy - Banks have increased credit support to key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and infrastructure, enhancing their service to the real economy [4]. - Hangzhou Bank reported that its credit issuance had exceeded 50% of its annual target by mid-year [4]. Group 4: Market Performance and Investment Trends - Bank stocks have performed well in 2025, with nine stocks in the A-share market showing a cumulative increase of over 20% [6]. - Public funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks, with the proportion reaching 4.85%, the highest since Q2 2021 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the appeal of bank stocks lies in their high dividend yields and stable performance, making them attractive to long-term investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comparative analysis of two major city commercial banks in Henan, China: Zhongyuan Bank and Zhengzhou Bank, highlighting their differences in background, capital market presence, regional distribution, subsidiaries, personnel, financial performance, and asset quality [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][10][11][31]. Background Comparison - Zhongyuan Bank was formed through the merger of city commercial banks in 2014 and 2022, making it a provincial-level city commercial bank, while Zhengzhou Bank originated from urban credit cooperatives in 1996 and is classified as a municipal-level city commercial bank [1]. - The administrative level of Zhongyuan Bank is likely higher than that of Zhengzhou Bank, based on the backgrounds of their respective leadership [1]. Capital Market Presence - Zhengzhou Bank was the first to enter the capital market, listing in Hong Kong in 2015 and on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2018 [2]. - Zhongyuan Bank followed later, listing in Hong Kong in 2017 and has not yet entered the A-share market [3]. Regional Distribution - Zhongyuan Bank has a comprehensive network covering all cities in Henan province due to its merger origins, while Zhengzhou Bank has not yet achieved full provincial coverage, lacking branches in Sanmenxia and Jiaozuo [4]. Subsidiary Overview - Both banks have financial leasing subsidiaries, with Zhongyuan Bank having two and Zhengzhou Bank having one [5]. - Zhongyuan Bank operates 13 village and town banks and has a consumer finance company, while Zhengzhou Bank has 7 village and town banks and no consumer finance subsidiary [6]. Personnel Situation - As of the end of 2024, Zhongyuan Bank has 20,987 employees, significantly more than Zhengzhou Bank's 6,180 employees [7]. - Zhongyuan Bank's overall employee count is 3.4 times that of Zhengzhou Bank, indicating a larger workforce [8]. Financial Performance - As of the end of 2024, Zhongyuan Bank's total assets reached 1.364 trillion yuan, double that of Zhengzhou Bank's 676.365 billion yuan [10]. - Key financial metrics show that Zhongyuan Bank's operating income and net profit are also approximately double those of Zhengzhou Bank [10]. - Despite the larger scale, Zhongyuan Bank's efficiency is lower, with a higher employee count leading to lower per capita profitability compared to Zhengzhou Bank [11]. Asset Quality Comparison - Both banks exhibit relatively high non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, with Zhongyuan Bank at 2.02% and Zhengzhou Bank at 1.79% as of the end of 2024 [11][23]. - The article notes that both banks have experienced challenges in maintaining asset quality, with high overdue loan ratios compared to their NPL ratios [29][26]. Long-term Growth Analysis - Over the past decade, Zhongyuan Bank's asset scale has consistently exceeded that of Zhengzhou Bank, primarily due to mergers, while Zhengzhou Bank's growth has been more organic [12]. - Recent years have seen fluctuations in both banks' operating income, with Zhengzhou Bank experiencing negative growth in 2023 and 2024, while Zhongyuan Bank faced negative growth in 2021 and 2024 [14][16]. Income Structure and Profitability - Both banks rely heavily on net interest income, with Zhongyuan Bank maintaining a net interest margin above 80% [18]. - However, net interest margins have been declining for both banks, impacting their revenue and profitability [20][21]. Cost and Efficiency - Zhongyuan Bank's operational costs are significantly higher than those of Zhengzhou Bank, with business and management expenses in 2024 being 2.66 times greater [28]. - The average salary at Zhongyuan Bank is lower than that at Zhengzhou Bank when adjusted for employee numbers, indicating lower per capita efficiency [28].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continuous decline in bank deposit rates across various terms, reflecting broader trends in the banking sector and the impact of market reforms [1][2][3]. Deposit Rate Trends - The average deposit rates for different terms in June 2025 are as follows: 3-month at 0.949% (down 5.5 BP), 6-month at 1.156% (down 5.6 BP), 1-year at 1.287% (down 5.2 BP), 2-year at 1.372% (down 5.6 BP), 3-year at 1.695% (down 1.6 BP), and 5-year at 1.538% (down 3.5 BP) [2][3]. - The 5-year average rate has decreased by approximately 1 percentage point from 2.433% in June 2024 to 1.538% in June 2025 [2]. Market Reactions - Major state-owned banks adjusted their deposit rates on May 20, with the 1-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, prompting other banks to follow suit [3]. - The ongoing trend of declining deposit rates is attributed to the pressure on banks' net interest margins due to lower Loan Prime Rates (LPR) [3]. Structural Deposit Products - The average term for structured deposits in June 2025 is 103 days, with an average expected middle yield of 1.78% (down 7 BP) and an average expected maximum yield of 2.14% (down 11 BP) [4]. - Different types of banks show varying average terms and yields for structured deposits, with state-owned banks averaging 70 days and a maximum yield of 1.99% (down 19 BP) [4]. Performance by Linked Assets - For structured deposits linked to different assets, the average expected middle yield for currency-linked deposits is 1.77% (down 24 BP), while gold-linked deposits yield 1.78% (down 2 BP) [5]. - Deposits linked to indices, funds, and stocks show an increase in average expected middle yield to 2.00% (up 1 BP) [5].

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for July 2025, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent with the levels set after a reduction in June 2025 [1] - Market expectations indicated a high probability of the LPR remaining stable due to unchanged policy rates and recovering economic data reducing the urgency for rate cuts [2] - The pricing mechanism for LPR remains stable, as the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate and reverse repurchase operation rate have not been adjusted, limiting the downward space for LPR [2] Group 2 - The economic policy is currently in an observation phase following the June LPR reduction, with the GDP growth rate for the first half of the year at 5.3%, leading to a decreased necessity for further rate cuts [3] - Commercial banks are experiencing pressure on net interest margins, which are at historical lows of 1.54%, limiting the motivation to compress interest spreads further [4] - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is constraining domestic rate cuts, especially with the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates [5] Group 3 - Mortgage rates remain low, with the average first-home loan rate at 3.90% and second-home loan rate at 4.81%, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] - The reduction in LPR has eased the repayment pressure for borrowers, with a typical monthly payment decrease of 54.32 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [7] - Current corporate loan rates are around 3.2%, indicating manageable financing costs for businesses [8] Group 4 - Short-term adjustments to the LPR are limited, with expectations of stability if economic data continues to improve in Q3 2025; however, a reserve requirement ratio cut is more likely than a rate cut [8] - There remains potential for a medium to long-term reduction in LPR if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts or if domestic demand weakens [8] - Regulatory measures may shift towards reducing non-interest costs and enhancing fiscal support to stimulate the economy [8]

Group 1: Bank Liability Pressure - Since the second half of 2024, listed banks have shown stable asset expansion, primarily driven by a recovery in deposit growth, with a notable increase in bond and interbank financing[2][14]. - The structure of deposits has shifted, with personal deposits growing faster than corporate deposits, leading to an increase in the proportion of personal deposits in listed banks[2][20]. - Large banks face relatively greater pressure on their deposit growth compared to smaller banks, as their deposit structure is more balanced but has been significantly impacted by the cessation of manual interest supplementation in April 2024[2][26]. Group 2: Financial Investment Trends - The importance of financial investments has increased, with banks actively increasing their financial investments in response to rising interest rate spreads[3][34]. - Different types of banks exhibit varying preferences for trading and investment accounts, with rural commercial banks showing a higher trading attribute compared to state-owned banks[3][40]. - The contribution of financial investment to income has shown volatility, with a negative correlation observed between the 10-year government bond yield and the income contribution from financial investment trading[3][51]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Dynamics - The net interest margin (NIM) is primarily influenced by the yield on interest-earning assets and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the latter being more rigid[4][59]. - Recent trends indicate that the decline in loan yields and the rise in deposit costs have been the main factors compressing NIM in recent years[4][73]. - The central bank's monetary easing can temporarily boost NIM by lowering interbank financing costs and improving asset yields through enhanced investment and consumption willingness[4][74].