Core Viewpoint - The average deposit rates in China continue to decline, with significant pressure on net interest margins, leading to a persistent inversion in long-term and short-term deposit rates [1][4][5]. Deposit Rate Trends - As of September 2025, the average deposit rates for various terms are as follows: 3-month at 0.944%, 6-month at 1.147%, 1-year at 1.277%, 2-year at 1.367%, 3-year at 1.688%, and 5-year at 1.519% [1][3]. - Compared to the previous month, the rates have decreased slightly across all terms, with the most significant drop being 0.4 basis points for the 3-year term [1][3]. Net Interest Margin Pressure - The net interest margin for commercial banks has been on a downward trend, recorded at 1.52% at the end of last year, 1.43% at the end of Q1, and 1.42% at the end of Q2 this year [4]. - The continuous decline in deposit rates is attributed to the ongoing pressure on net interest margins, which has led banks to adjust their deposit pricing strategies [4][5]. Long-term vs Short-term Rate Inversion - A notable phenomenon is the inversion of average rates between 3-year and 5-year deposits, with the 3-year rate at 1.688% being higher than the 5-year rate at 1.519% [1][4]. - This inversion has been persistent since 2024, indicating a shift in depositor behavior towards shorter-term deposits [5]. Large-denomination Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The average rates for large-denomination CDs have also shown mixed trends, with the 3-month rate at 1.134%, 6-month at 1.318%, and 1-year at 1.394% [6][7]. - The rate differences between large-denomination CDs and regular deposits are narrowing, particularly for terms longer than one year [7]. Structural Deposit Insights - The average term for structured deposits has increased to 106 days, with a slight decrease in average expected middle yield to 1.59% [7][8]. - Different types of banks show varying trends in structured deposit terms and yields, with foreign banks having the longest average term at 405 days and the highest expected yield at 4.35% [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute indicates a continued slight decline in bank deposit rates for September 2025, with specific rates for various terms being reported [3][6]. Summary by Sections Bank Deposit Rates - In September 2025, the average interest rates for fixed-term deposits across various terms are as follows: 3-month at 0.944%, 6-month at 1.147%, 1-year at 1.277%, 2-year at 1.367%, 3-year at 1.688%, and 5-year at 1.519% [3][5]. - Compared to the previous month, the rates have decreased slightly: 3-month down by 0.1 basis points (BP), 6-month down by 0.2 BP, 1-year down by 0.1 BP, 2-year down by 0.1 BP, 3-year down by 0.4 BP, and 5-year down by 0.1 BP [5][6]. Large Certificates of Deposit - For large certificates of deposit, the average interest rates in September 2025 are: 3-month at 1.134%, 6-month at 1.318%, 1-year at 1.394%, 2-year at 1.356%, 3-year at 1.729%, and 5-year at 1.610% [6][7]. - The changes compared to the previous month show mixed results: 3-month up by 0.43 BP, 6-month up by 2.53 BP, 1-year down by 1.39 BP, 2-year unchanged, and 3-year up by 5.93 BP [7]. Structured Deposits - The average term for RMB structured deposits in September 2025 is 106 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous month, with an average expected middle yield of 1.59%, down by 2 BP [7][8]. - The average expected highest yield for structured deposits is 2.09%, which has increased by 2 BP [7][8]. Bank Type Analysis - In September, the average term and expected highest yield for structured deposits vary by bank type: - State-owned banks: average term 85 days, highest yield 2.10% [8]. - Joint-stock banks: average term 87 days, highest yield 2.01% [8]. - City commercial banks: average term 197 days, highest yield 2.22% [8]. - Foreign banks: average term 405 days, highest yield 4.35% [8]. Market Trends - The downward trend in interest rates is expected to continue, influenced by the pressure on banks' net interest margins, leading to a flattening of the deposit rate curve and persistent term structure inversion [9].

Core Insights - The overall trend indicates continued downward pressure on deposit rates, with a slight decline observed in September 2025 [1][5] Deposit Rates Overview - In September 2025, the average interest rates for fixed-term deposits across various tenures were as follows: 3-month at 0.944%, 6-month at 1.147%, 1-year at 1.277%, 2-year at 1.367%, 3-year at 1.688%, and 5-year at 1.519% [1] - Compared to the previous month, the rates for different tenures showed minor declines: 3-month down by 0.1 basis points (BP), 6-month down by 0.2 BP, 1-year down by 0.1 BP, 2-year down by 0.1 BP, 3-year down by 0.4 BP, and 5-year down by 0.1 BP [2] Large Denomination Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - For large denomination CDs in September 2025, the average interest rates were: 3-month at 1.134%, 6-month at 1.318%, 1-year at 1.394%, 2-year at 1.356%, 3-year at 1.729%, and 5-year at 1.610% [2] - The rates for large denomination CDs varied: 3-month increased by 0.43 BP, 6-month increased by 2.53 BP, 1-year decreased by 1.39 BP, 2-year remained unchanged, and 3-year increased by 5.93 BP, indicating a trend of rising rates among small and medium-sized banks [3] Structured Deposits - The average term for RMB structured deposits in September 2025 was 106 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous month, with an average expected middle yield of 1.59%, down by 2 BP [3] - The average expected maximum yield for structured deposits was 2.09%, which increased by 2 BP [3] Bank Type Analysis - In September, the average term and expected maximum yield for structured deposits varied by bank type: - State-owned banks: average term 85 days, expected maximum yield 2.10% (up 3 BP) - Joint-stock banks: average term 87 days, expected maximum yield 2.01% (down 2 BP) - City commercial banks: average term 197 days, expected maximum yield 2.22% (up 8 BP) - Foreign banks: average term 405 days, expected maximum yield 4.35% (up 2 BP) [4] Yield by Linked Assets - For structured deposits linked to different assets in September 2025, the average expected middle yields were: - Currency-linked: 1.63% (down 6 BP) - Gold-linked: 1.57% (down 2 BP) - Index, fund, and stock-linked: 1.93% (down 7 BP) [5] - The average expected maximum yield for index, fund, and stock-linked structured deposits was 4.94%, down by 39 BP [5]