Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities expects the growth rate of social financing (社融) to remain stable in the second quarter, driven by low base effects from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] Social Financing - In April, the growth rate of social financing continued to rise, primarily due to the low base from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] - The net financing amount of government bonds in April last year was the lowest since the inclusion of government bonds in social financing statistics [1] - April is typically a small month for social financing and credit, necessitating further observation to determine financing demand [1] Credit Market - Credit rhythm experienced a temporary decline due to pre-quarter lending and the traditional small month for credit [1] - Demand for certain types of loans, particularly mortgages, weakened, compounded by external tariff factors affecting corporate financing needs [1] Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate weakened again and fell below market expectations, indicating that consumer spending and corporate investment willingness have not significantly improved [1] - The private sector's motivation to increase leverage remains weak, suggesting a need for further policy guidance [1] Future Outlook - Despite the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, the combination of a loose monetary environment and accelerated fiscal efforts is expected to support stable growth in social financing in the second quarter [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 事 项 4月，CPI同比下降0.1%，预期下降0.15%，前值下降0.1%；核心CPI同比上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.5%。PPI同比下降2.7%，预期下 降2.8%，前值下降2.5% 。 报告摘要 一、4月CPI的结构性特征 本月CPI略高于我们的预期，或因没考虑到金价上涨的影响 。CPI同比和环比均较我们的预期高0.1个百分点，预期差在核心CPI。 据统计局解读，金饰品价格上涨10.1%，拉动CPI环比约0.06个百分点，据此推算，金饰品在CPI中的权重占比大约0.6%，对本月 核心CPI环比的拉动约0.1个百分点。 本月CPI项目环比上涨或好于季节性的：1） 受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游等出行服 务价格好于季节性。 2） 在供给减少等因素影响，食品价格上涨0.2%，好于季节性。比较明显的是，牛肉价格上涨3.9%，创2019 年10月以来最高（过去两年因供给扩张牛肉价格大幅下跌），在需求淡季下鲜菜和猪肉价格跌幅偏小。 3） 房租环比 ...