Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the growth rate of social financing (社融) in July continues to rise due to a low base and accelerated issuance of government bonds, with expectations for a sustained rapid pace of special bond issuance in the third quarter [1] - The article notes that the seasonal decline in credit data from the central bank is observed, with corporate financing demand not showing significant improvement, leading to a larger decline in July due to the substitution effect from the increase in short-term loans at the end of June [1] - It is anticipated that personal consumption loans and service industry loan interest subsidy policies will work in conjunction with previous measures to boost credit from both demand and supply sides [1] Group 2 - The growth rates of M1 and M2 deposits have both rebounded, with the low base effect from last year supporting the increase in M1 growth in July [1] - The article highlights that the overall decline in household loans follows a concentrated increase at the end of the first half of the year, with real estate sales data confirming this trend [1] - The expectation is that the base effect will continue to provide support for M1 growth in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities expects the growth rate of social financing (社融) to remain stable in the second quarter, driven by low base effects from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] Social Financing - In April, the growth rate of social financing continued to rise, primarily due to the low base from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] - The net financing amount of government bonds in April last year was the lowest since the inclusion of government bonds in social financing statistics [1] - April is typically a small month for social financing and credit, necessitating further observation to determine financing demand [1] Credit Market - Credit rhythm experienced a temporary decline due to pre-quarter lending and the traditional small month for credit [1] - Demand for certain types of loans, particularly mortgages, weakened, compounded by external tariff factors affecting corporate financing needs [1] Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate weakened again and fell below market expectations, indicating that consumer spending and corporate investment willingness have not significantly improved [1] - The private sector's motivation to increase leverage remains weak, suggesting a need for further policy guidance [1] Future Outlook - Despite the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, the combination of a loose monetary environment and accelerated fiscal efforts is expected to support stable growth in social financing in the second quarter [1]