↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 投投释道 来源：雪球 周五盘后 ， 央行公布了8月的金融数据 。 我们一直强调 ， 对于国内投资来说 ， 社融数据是最重要的宏观参考数据 ， 是经济情况的先行指标 。 而货币供给特别是M1则反映了资金的活化程度 ， 是社会消费和投资的先行指标 。 一起来看下8月的金融数据所揭示的经济运行情况 。 先看社融 。 数据显示 ， 社会融资规模增量达到2.57万亿元 ， 略高于市场预期 ， 但同比少增4630亿元 ， 社融存量同比增速较前月下降0.2个 百分点至8.8% ， 为年内首次回落 。 新增人民币贷款5900亿元 ， 同比少增3100亿元 ， 仍处于近年同期较低水平 。 从社融结构来看 ， 政府债券净融资1.37万亿元 ， 仍是新增社融的主要支撑 ， 但受去年政府债下半年开始发力导致高基数的影响 ， 今年8月该 数据同比少增2519亿元 ， 这也是近十个月以来政府债首次成为社融的拖累项 。 人民帀贷款新增6233亿元 ， 同比少增4178亿元 ， 成为社融 走弱的主要拖累因素 。 ...

Group 1: Credit Growth and Economic Support - In August 2025, new RMB loans increased to 590 billion, a month-on-month increase of 640 billion, but a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion[1] - The total social financing (TSF) in August was 25,693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion, marking the first year-on-year decline in 8 months[6] - M2 growth remained stable at 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 growth accelerated to 6.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] Group 2: Factors Influencing Credit and Financing - The recovery in credit growth was supported by improved macroeconomic conditions, strong export resilience, and seasonal consumption peaks during summer[2] - The decline in year-on-year credit growth was primarily influenced by hidden debt replacement and external market fluctuations, alongside adjustments in the real estate market[2] - The structure of loans improved, with corporate short-term loans increasing by 260 billion, while long-term loans decreased by 200 billion year-on-year, indicating a marginal recovery in corporate credit demand[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Monetary Policy - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy to remain accommodative, with expectations for increased credit growth in the coming months[8] - The central bank is likely to continue implementing measures such as MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity into the market, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in the fourth quarter[8] - Overall, the banking system's liquidity is robust, with loan growth rates significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth, indicating strong support for the real economy[5]

Group 1 - The credit data reveals insights into market dynamics, indicating that major indices initially showed stable upward movement but faced resistance at historical highs reached on October 8 of the previous year [2] - The market encountered selling pressure due to trapped investors from the previous high, who had been waiting for a chance to exit their positions, leading to a short-term market pullback [2] Group 2 - The domestic market has reached a ceiling and requires additional capital support to continue its growth trajectory [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the monetary policy remains moderately loose, as evidenced by the high growth rates of M2 and social financing scale [2][7] - As of the end of July, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, and M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [2][7] - The total social financing scale for the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth of 9% as of the end of July [2][5] Group 2 - In July, new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, marking the first negative growth in 20 years, influenced by seasonal factors and external shocks [3][4] - The structure of loans has improved, with small and micro loans growing by 11.8% year-on-year and medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector increasing by 8.5% [4][5] - The increase in social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.89 trillion yuan, driven mainly by bond financing [5][6] Group 3 - The M1 growth rate accelerated to 5.6%, reflecting an increase in the liquidity of funds and a rise in corporate investment willingness [7][8] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap indicates enhanced fund activity, suggesting that households and businesses are converting fixed deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [8] - Future policies, including loan interest subsidies and real estate stabilization measures, are expected to stimulate credit demand and support economic recovery [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of poor credit data and a month - on - month increase in steel inventory. The iron ore market has a falling market sentiment and is oscillating. The coking coal and coke market has the sixth round of coke price increase implemented and is also oscillating. The thermal coal market has high daily consumption and rising coal prices [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures contracts declined slightly, and the spot market had average transactions with 91,282 tons of building materials sold nationwide. July's financial data showed negative private - sector credit growth and government financing boosting social financing. Steel inventory increased and production and sales declined according to Ganggu data [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production and sales are in the off - season with a slight increase in inventory. Plate is affected by Tangshan's production restrictions with marginal improvement in sentiment. Before the parade, production restrictions on steel mills are frequent, and there is a possibility of marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, it's difficult for steel mills to cut production autonomously due to good profits. Raw material prices are firm, and the steel fundamentals have few contradictions with strong support on the futures market. Future focus is on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated, and the prices of mainstream spot varieties rose slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 842,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.57 million tons (8 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 383.08% (with 1.38 million tons from mines) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments declined seasonally in July, but with rising prices, supply has strong support. Pig iron production remains high, steel profits are strong, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is high. There are no large - scale overhauls in the short term, so iron ore consumption and demand are resilient. In the long run, the iron ore supply - demand is still slightly loose. Future focus is on pig iron production and floating cargo changes [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black building materials commodities on the futures market declined collectively, and the main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated downward. The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. For imported Mongolian coal, customs clearance restrictions remain in place, and port traders are reluctant to sell due to high - level fluctuations in the futures market. The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented, 523 sample mines had a slight increase in clean coal inventory, and raw coal inventory reduction slowed down with a slight decline in production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mine supply recovery is slow, and imported coal customs clearance is restricted, so the overall supply is tight. Downstream coking enterprises have slowed down their procurement and mainly purchase for rigid demand. For coke, affected by rising coking coal prices, some coking enterprises are showing signs of losses. Coupled with Shandong's environmental protection production restrictions on September 3, coke supply is tightening. Although steel mills' profits have narrowed and pig iron production has declined, it is still at a high level in the same period, supporting demand. In the short term, coking coal and coke futures are restricted by the supply side. Future focus is on supply recovery progress, subsequent coke price increases, and the sustainability of high - level pig iron production [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The coking coal strategy is to oscillate, the coke strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the main production areas continued to be strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and after rainfall, some chemical plants and surrounding power plants are actively replenishing stocks. Large - scale purchasers at stations have increased their demand, and pit - mouth coal prices remain firm. At ports, the inventory at northern ports continues to decline, shipping is seriously inverted, high - quality resources are relatively scarce, and traders are strongly holding prices with quotes more likely to rise than fall. For imported coal, with rising temperatures, the port arrival cost has increased, and imported coal quotes continue to rise [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Safety inspections in production areas are stricter, some over - producing mines are shut down for rectification, and some previously shut - down mines are under re - inspection. The overall supply is still tight. Coal daily consumption remains high, inventory continues to decline, and the coal fundamentals are good. Coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy content provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the growth rate of social financing (社融) in July continues to rise due to a low base and accelerated issuance of government bonds, with expectations for a sustained rapid pace of special bond issuance in the third quarter [1] - The article notes that the seasonal decline in credit data from the central bank is observed, with corporate financing demand not showing significant improvement, leading to a larger decline in July due to the substitution effect from the increase in short-term loans at the end of June [1] - It is anticipated that personal consumption loans and service industry loan interest subsidy policies will work in conjunction with previous measures to boost credit from both demand and supply sides [1] Group 2 - The growth rates of M1 and M2 deposits have both rebounded, with the low base effect from last year supporting the increase in M1 growth in July [1] - The article highlights that the overall decline in household loans follows a concentrated increase at the end of the first half of the year, with real estate sales data confirming this trend [1] - The expectation is that the base effect will continue to provide support for M1 growth in the future [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of treasury bond futures is "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures rebounded after opening lower and stopped falling in the short - term. The short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03% [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A stock index rose unilaterally in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. Treasury bond futures did not show a seesaw effect with the stock index. After two consecutive days of corrections on Monday and Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened lower and then rebounded [2] Important Information Open Market - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [1] Money Market - On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.45%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] Cash Bond Market - On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.46 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.09 BP to 1.73%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 2.02% [1] Social Financing and Credit Data in July - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 1.41 trillion yuan, 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds increased by 1.244 trillion yuan, 555.9 billion yuan more year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy decreased by 426.3 billion yuan, 345.5 billion yuan more year - on - year; the net financing of corporate bonds was 279.1 billion yuan, 75.5 billion yuan more year - on - year; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 163.9 billion yuan, 56.4 billion yuan more year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a market expectation of a 15 - billion - yuan decrease, 310 billion yuan more year - on - year [1] - Corporate medium - and long - term loans decreased by 260 billion yuan, 390 billion yuan more than the same period last year; corporate short - term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, the same as the decrease in the same period last year; corporate bill financing increased by 871.1 billion yuan, 312.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Resident short - term loans decreased by 382.7 billion yuan, 167.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 110 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, with a market expectation of 8.3% and 8.3% at the end of June. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with a market expectation of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6% in June [1] Other Economic Data - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year in July, better than the market forecast of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9%. It is expected that China's export growth rate will probably decline in the future [2] - China's CPI was flat year - on - year in July, slightly exceeding the market expectation of a 0.1% decrease; the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 3.4% decrease. The overall price level continued to hover at a low level [2] - On August 12, it was announced that China and the US would suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, which is beneficial for stabilizing bilateral trade and market confidence [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and the total social financing (TSF) increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, indicating a stable financial support for the real economy despite some fluctuations in July data [1][2][8]. Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In July, the RMB loan balance reached 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, reflecting a slight decline in monthly new loans due to seasonal factors and local government bond replacements [2][3]. - The cumulative increase in RMB loans for the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, with a significant impact from local government bond replacements estimated to have replaced 2.6 trillion yuan in loans [2][3]. - The new corporate loan interest rate was approximately 3.2%, and the personal housing loan rate was about 3.1%, both lower than the previous year [4]. Group 2: Direct Financing and Structural Changes - Direct financing, including corporate and government bond financing, accounted for 43% of the new social financing in the first seven months, indicating a shift towards more diversified financing sources [5][6]. - The increasing proportion of direct financing reflects an optimization of the financing structure, which is beneficial for meeting diverse corporate financing needs and enhancing overall demand [6]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Environment - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable monetary environment conducive to economic activity [6][8]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates suggests improved liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation, aligning with the recovery of economic activities [7][8].

Monetary Policy & Economic Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) via Financial Times suggests that single-month loan data is insufficient to accurately reflect economic activity in the high-quality development stage [1] - The PBOC advises against over-interpreting or sensationalizing fluctuations in single-month credit growth figures when analyzing economic and financial conditions [1] Money Supply Data (July) - M2 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 88%, exceeding the expected 83% and previous value of 83% [2] - M1 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 56%, exceeding the expected 52% and previous value of 46% [2] - M0 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 118%, compared to the previous value of 12% [2]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]