[ 在受访人士看来，新政整体对银行形成利好，能够有效鼓励逾期债务人归还欠款，提高资产质量，同 时有望提振消费形成良性循环。"是件好事，很多人之前因为小的征信瑕疵做不了银行贷款，（信用一 次性修复以后）能提振这些人的信贷需求，最终也能达到促进消费的作用。"一位股份行人士对第一财 经表示，整体来看，此次新政落地将带来多方共赢。 ] 农业银行、建设银行等也陆续发布相关热点问题解答，详解一次性信用修复政策注意事项，并提示不法 分子可能围绕信用修复进行诈骗等风险。 [ 根据央行通知，对于2020年1月1日至2025年12月31日期间，单笔金额不超过1万元人民币的逾期，借 款人将迎来一次性信用修复的机会：个人于2026年3月31日（含）前足额偿还逾期债务的，央行征信系 统将不予展示。 ] 12月22日，央行重磅推出一次性信用修复政策。政策不区分贷款机构、贷款类型，不设置申请程序和复 杂的条件，公平公正、简便易行地为在规定日期前履行还款义务的个人提供信用重建的机会。 对部分非恶意失信者来说，这无疑是一个好消息。那么，对银行来说，政策将给信贷需求、资产质量带 来哪些影响？ 在受访人士看来，新政整体对银行形成利好，能够有效鼓励 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected index increase of over 10% relative to the market in the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the total social financing (社融) stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year in November, with a stable month-on-month growth rate. The new social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. This growth was primarily supported by an increase in corporate bonds, while government bonds and new loans saw a year-on-year decrease [4][12]. - Credit demand remains weak, with loans increasing by 390 billion yuan in November, which is a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The total balance of RMB loans reached 271 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year but declining by 0.1% month-on-month [5][17]. - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline, while M2 increased by 8.0% year-on-year, also showing a slight month-on-month decrease [19][23]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In November, the social financing stock reached 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. The total new social financing from January to November was 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan year-on-year. Government bonds were a significant contributor to this growth, with net financing reaching 13.15 trillion yuan, up by 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year [4][12]. Credit Demand - The report indicates that the demand for credit is still weak, particularly in the household sector, which saw a reduction of 206.3 billion yuan in November. In contrast, the corporate sector experienced an increase in loans, particularly in short-term financing [5][18]. Monetary Supply - The report notes that the M1 money supply's year-on-year growth rate was 4.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 1.3%. The total new RMB deposits in November were 1.41 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year [19][23]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the financial data in November reflects a divergence in total and structural aspects, with ongoing policy effects. It anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, with strong risk compensation capabilities. The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, encouraging long-term capital allocation towards this sector [6][24].

债市周周谈：中央经济工作会议的几点债市信号 20251214 摘要 居民主动去杠杆明显，10 月个人中长期贷款增量骤降，房贷增长停滞甚 至略负，北京房价下跌促使提前还贷，叠加房贷利率与银行存款利率倒 挂，提前还贷成理性选择，对银行信贷结构产生显著影响。 企业信贷需求疲软，短期贷款增加但中长期贷款同比减少，票据贴现增 加反映融资需求不足。产能过剩和央行利率管控加剧信贷需求恶化，优 质企业通过发债置换贷款进一步削弱信贷需求。 社融规模虽保持平稳但下行趋势未变，主要由表外融资和企业债券贡献。 预计 12 月社融增速将回落，2026 年社融增量预计减少，政府债券融资 规模虽略有增加但幅度有限。 M1 增速下降反映经济活性不高，四季度低基数效应减弱，M1 增速将进 一步下降，预示未来信贷需求可能持续低迷，新增贷款同比少增或成常 态，单月负增长压力增大。 房地产和基建相关贷款贡献大幅下降，地产相关贷款占比接近零，隐形 债务严控及地方政府财政压力缓解，大基建时代或结束，城投公司信贷 需求受限，居民消费信贷需求不振。 Q&A 10 月份的金融数据表现如何？ 10 月份的金融数据整体符合预期，但具体细节显示出一些问题。11 月 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 湘财证券研究所 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 个月 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | 1 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -2.8 | | | | -4.9 | | -3.0 | | | 绝对收益 | -4.2 | -1.7 | | | 8.8 | | | | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 行业研究 银行业周报 社融增长平稳，企业短贷改善 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 社融增长平稳，企业短贷改善 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 根据 Wind 数据统计，11 月，社融增速较前值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - The effective credit demand in the banking sector remains weak, with a slowdown in deposit migration observed [5]. - Social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total social financing stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The contribution of government bonds and RMB loans to social financing has weakened, while corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing have gained traction [5]. - The demand for credit from the household sector continues to be weak, with a notable decrease in short-term loans [5]. - The growth rates of M1 and M2 have declined, indicating a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. - The report suggests that the support from government bonds for social financing is diminishing, and credit demand still needs to recover [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing dividend value of banks, driven by factors such as a low-interest-rate environment and substantial dividend payouts, and continues to favor the banking sector [5]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry Overview - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in effective credit demand and a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. Social Financing and Credit Demand - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total stock grew by 8.5% [5]. - RMB loans increased by 405.3 billion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan [5]. - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, indicating insufficient consumer demand [5]. Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.9% and 8% respectively, with a month-on-month decline [5]. - The total deposits in financial institutions increased by 1.41 trillion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others, highlighting their ongoing dividend value [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in November 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate is 6.0%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6] - New social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, primarily supported by corporate bond issuance, while credit and government bonds showed negative growth [6] - The report highlights a trend of short-term borrowing among enterprises, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Data - In November, the total social financing growth rate was 8.5%, with a new social financing addition of 2.49 trillion yuan, up 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate excluding government bonds was 6.0% [6][2] - Corporate bond financing net increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises [6][4] 2. Credit and Loan Trends - The report indicates a weak increase in credit, with November's RMB loan growth rate at 6.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New loans for the month totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan [6] - Personal loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans down by 215.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [4][6] 3. Deposit Trends - RMB deposit growth rate in November was 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with new deposits amounting to 1.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [6] - The report notes a slowdown in deposit migration, with corporate deposits increasing by 645.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.7 billion yuan [6][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: identifying banks with potential for performance growth, emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, and continuing dividend strategies [6]

Economic News - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently stated that "Taiwan's crisis is Japan's survival crisis," suggesting potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, which has drawn criticism from Chinese media [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, expressing willingness to deepen cooperation in investment, energy, and agriculture, and to facilitate Russian agricultural products entering the Chinese market [2] - The U.S. State Department approved a $330 million arms sale to Taiwan, which has been met with strong opposition from China's defense ministry [2] - The fourth China-Germany high-level financial dialogue welcomed the issuance of Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) by Chinese companies in Frankfurt and vice versa, aiming to enhance market connectivity [2] - From January to October, China's general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2] - Guangdong Province introduced its first exclusive policy for pension finance, establishing a "white list" mechanism for pension institutions and enterprises [2] - As of November 16, the scale of newly issued funds this year has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with a total of 1,377 new funds established [2] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to October, stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% [2] Company Insights - Zhuimi Group plans to sell 100% equity of its Gree property for 5.518 billion yuan [5] - Unisplendour International intends to acquire 174,500 shares of H3C for $12.8 million [5] - Lian Microelectronics plans to invest 2.262 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 1.8 million 12-inch heavily doped substrate wafers [5] - Huayin Power plans to raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan through a private placement [5] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has issued a comprehensive takeover offer [5] Industry Analysis - The banking sector is experiencing a continued decline in social financing growth, with October's social financing year-on-year growth at 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [6][7] - Government bonds and loans have seen significant decreases, with government bond net financing at 489.3 billion yuan, down 5.602 billion yuan year-on-year [7] - The demand for credit remains weak, with October's RMB loans increasing by 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan [8] - The M1 growth rate decreased to 6.2%, while M2 growth was at 8.2%, indicating a trend of "de-banking" in deposits [9] - The investment outlook suggests that credit demand will remain weak, with social financing growth expected to decline further to around 8% by year-end [10] Company Performance - Weisheng Information, a pioneer in energy IoT, reported a revenue of 2.745 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.35%, and a net profit of 631 million yuan, up 20.07% [11][12] - The company has a comprehensive industry chain layout and is expanding its international business, particularly in emerging markets along the Belt and Road [12][13] - Forecasts for Weisheng Information's revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 3.023 billion yuan, 3.456 billion yuan, and 4.055 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 712 million yuan, 801 million yuan, and 925 million yuan [13]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the state of the Chinese banking sector and the broader financial landscape, particularly focusing on social financing (社融) and credit data for October 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Social Financing Data**: In October, new social financing amounted to 800 billion yuan, marking the lowest level in nearly a decade and falling short of market expectations, primarily due to a year-on-year decrease of 560 billion yuan in government bonds, indicating issues with fiscal spending timing [1][2][4]. 2. **Loan Performance**: New RMB loans totaled 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan. Household loans decreased by 520 billion yuan, reflecting weak mortgage demand due to sluggish real estate sales, while mortgage rates stabilized between 3.1% and 3.3% [1][5]. 3. **Corporate Loan Demand**: There remains insufficient demand for medium to long-term corporate loans, although financing rates for emerging industries have slightly increased, indicating a willingness among companies to bear higher financing costs [1][6][7]. 4. **Deposit Trends**: The phenomenon of "deposit migration" continues, with household deposits decreasing by 770 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institution deposits increased by the same amount, suggesting a shift of funds from household savings to equity markets [1][8]. 5. **Banking Sector Performance**: In the first three quarters, listed banks reported a net profit growth of 1.6% year-on-year, with improvements across various types of banks. The asset expansion has helped offset declining interest margins, and the reduction in impairment losses has positively impacted profits [1][11][12]. 6. **Future Outlook for Banking**: The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance for the year, driven by asset expansion, growth in non-interest income, and reduced impairment losses. However, uncertainties related to bond market fluctuations and external macroeconomic events could impact credit costs [1][12][13]. 7. **Credit Quality**: As of the end of Q3, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks was stable at 1.23%. However, there are concerns regarding the rising overdue rates in retail loans and potential impacts on asset quality due to adjustments in loan support policies for real estate developers [1][20][21]. 8. **Capital Adequacy**: By the end of Q3, the core capital adequacy ratio for listed banks was 10.55%, showing an increase from the previous year, supported by government injections and favorable stock performance. This stability in capital adequacy is expected to sustain dividend payouts [1][23][24]. Other Important Insights - **Market Reaction**: The market's focus on social financing data has diminished due to the significant year-on-year decreases observed, particularly since Q2. The high base effect from previous years continues to influence current credit data [2]. - **Investment Trends**: Despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 4,000 points, the ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization remains around 160%, indicating that large-scale retail investment has not yet materialized [1][10]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income for listed banks increased by 4.6% year-on-year, benefiting from improved wealth management-related revenues and favorable capital market conditions [1][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the banking sector and social financing in China.

Credit Demand Trends - In October, new social financing (社融) increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5,970 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 1,528.4 billion yuan[1] - New loan issuance (金融机构口径) was 220 billion yuan, down 2,800 billion yuan year-on-year, also below the expected 460 billion yuan[1] - Both new social financing and loan data have shown negative year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, with significant deviations from expectations in October[1] Government Debt and Financing - The new government bond issuance in October was only 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, nearly matching the overall decline in new social financing[2] - The slowdown in government bond issuance is attributed to local government arrangements rather than quota issues, with potential for increased issuance in November[2] Loan and Financing Structure - New loans under the social financing category were negative at -20.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 3,166 billion yuan[3] - New entrusted loans and corporate bond financing were relatively strong, at 165.3 billion yuan and 246.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 187.2 billion yuan and 148.2 billion yuan[3] Consumer Loan Trends - New household loans were significantly below seasonal levels at -360.4 billion yuan, compared to a ten-year average of 290.8 billion yuan for the same period[4] - Short-term consumer loans saw a decrease of 2,866 billion yuan, indicating a decline in consumer spending willingness[5] Corporate Financing Dynamics - New corporate short-term loans were -190 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans were 30 billion yuan, both at seasonal lows[6] - Overall corporate financing demand was 558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 445.2 billion yuan, driven by various financing tools[6] Deposit Trends - New deposit growth was 610 billion yuan, with significant declines in both household and corporate deposits, at -1,340 billion yuan and -1,085.3 billion yuan respectively[7] - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a trend of "disintermediation" as funds flow back to banks through non-bank channels[7] Monetary Supply Changes - M1 growth rate fell from 7.2% to 6.2%, while M2 slightly decreased from 8.4% to 8.2%, indicating a widening gap in monetary supply metrics[8] - The decline in M1 is attributed to a significant drop in both household and corporate deposits, suggesting a potential liquidity issue[8] Market Outlook - The persistent weakness in credit demand may lead to a shift in monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated by year-end or early next year[9] - The bond market signals are becoming clearer, suggesting a more favorable environment for bond investments as monetary conditions may ease[9]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a shift in the bond market from headwinds to tailwinds, with a continued bullish outlook for November [1] - In 2025, the bond market is expected to rely heavily on increased allocations from bank proprietary trading, with a total bond market balance increasing by 16.4 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [2] - Government bonds accounted for a significant portion of this increase, with an increment of 11.4 trillion yuan, while financial bonds increased by 3.0 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the growth rate of bond investments by banks has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% for the four major banks and 17.5% for smaller banks as of September [2] - The report notes that the demand for credit remains weak, leading banks to focus on bond investments as a primary driver for asset scale expansion [2] - The report anticipates that conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be in place, supported by a decline in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks [2] Group 3 - Non-bank institutions are reported to have low bond positions and shorter durations, with a potential increase in bond market sentiment as the central bank resumes government bond trading [2] - The report suggests that there is potential for significant allocation of credit bonds by wealth management products, estimating a potential increase of several trillion yuan [2] - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year, with a bullish outlook for the bond market continuing into November [2][3]