Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the optimization of existing housing storage policies is expected to gradually assist in inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for allocation as affordable housing. The report notes that the slow progress in storage is primarily due to pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, and the responsibility for compliance and profitability lies with local governments [1][5]. - The report suggests that there is room for policy optimization, such as removing price caps to encourage developers to sell inventory, extending re-loan terms, and lowering interest rates to improve project profitability. These cumulative effects are expected to gradually aid in inventory reduction and enhance the recovery slope of real estate stock prices [1][5]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy announcements. The decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. The report indicates that the real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (industry challenges), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Evaluation - The report discusses the marginal optimization of existing housing storage policies, which is expected to facilitate inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China has set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]. - The report identifies that the slow progress in storage is due to the pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, with local governments bearing the ultimate responsibility for compliance and profitability [1][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks, including China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [6].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting signals confidence and capability to respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development[8] - The policy direction remains unchanged, with a more proactive stance expected in the second quarter[10] - The goal of achieving a 5% economic growth rate for the year is anticipated to remain intact[9] Group 2: Policy Measures - Special bond issuance is expected to accelerate, with a total of 1.14 trillion yuan issued by April 27, 2025, reflecting a 57.41% increase compared to the previous year[11] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in May and June[13] - Incremental policies are being reserved for potential implementation in the second half of the year to address unexpected external challenges[14] Group 3: Sector Focus - Real estate policies are shifting towards optimizing existing policies, with an emphasis on stabilizing the market[15] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for expanding consumer recovery, with a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups[16] - The promotion of "Artificial Intelligence +" applications is identified as a significant investment opportunity moving forward[19]