Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a significant divergence between the northern and southern regions, with the northern market facing tight supply and rising prices, while the southern market is burdened by high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Northern Market Dynamics - The northern methanol market is benefiting from three favorable factors: seasonal maintenance leading to reduced production, increased demand due to upcoming holidays, and higher external procurement by some methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities [1]. - As of September 12, the inventory of major methanol producers in Northwest China was approximately 200,000 tons, which is 100,000 to 150,000 tons lower than historical levels, supporting a robust price performance [1]. Group 2: Southern Market Challenges - In contrast, the southern coastal methanol market is facing a significant inventory surge, with port inventories reaching 1,550,300 tons as of September 11, surpassing the previous high of 1,478,900 tons in 2019 [2]. - The increase in port inventory is attributed to a combination of high import volumes and weak downstream demand, reflecting a broader supply-demand imbalance in the industry [2][3]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to High Inventory - The surge in port inventory is primarily due to a "delivery wave" caused by delayed shipments from Iran, which were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and subsequent price reductions to clear stock [3]. - Additionally, stable supply from Southeast Asia and a shift in Middle Eastern methanol flows to China due to sanctions on India have further intensified the inventory pressure at ports [3]. Group 4: Demand Weakness and Market Outlook - Weak demand from both overseas and domestic markets has compounded the inventory issues, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries such as acetic acid and MTBE [4]. - The current market situation reflects a conflict between weak port realities and strong future expectations, but analysts believe that the overall supply-demand balance remains intact [4]. - Short-term forecasts indicate that high port inventories are likely to persist, with limited capacity for inventory digestion, leading to potential price pressures [4]. Group 5: Long-term Improvement Prospects - Looking ahead, there is potential for market improvement as seasonal policies in November may reduce industrial gas usage, leading to a decrease in methanol production capacity by approximately 20 million tons per year [5]. - Analysts anticipate that the port market may begin a seasonal inventory reduction starting in October, which could alleviate pressure and create opportunities for price rebounds by early next year [5].

Report Title - PVC Monthly Report: Seasonal De-stocking Phase, Focus on Low-Valuation Recovery Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, it is the peak season for seasonal maintenance. Pay attention to the low-valuation recovery market driven by policy expectations. The supply and demand of the fundamentals will be weak, inventory may continue to decline, and spot prices are likely to rise rather than fall. If there are real estate-related stimulus policies in May, the upward elasticity of the market will be higher than the downward elasticity. Strategically, pay attention to subsequent macro-policy changes and the intensity of spring maintenance, and choose the opportunity to go long on dips [4] Summary by Directory This Month's Overview - **Market Review**: This month, the V2509 fluctuated in the range of [4901, 5273]. The weak macro sentiment dominated the market trend, and the price center significantly moved down. The cost support of chlor-alkali integration improved. The overall profit in the northwest remained at a neutral level. The export continued to exchange volume for price, driving the social inventory to decline for 7 consecutive weeks. The Formosa Plastics quotation in May was flat, slightly better than market expectations [3] Next Month's Outlook - **Seasonal Maintenance Peak**: Multiple sets of devices such as Tianchen Chemical and Xinjiang Yihua are planned for maintenance. The supply is expected to shrink. The BIS certification is approaching, and exports may be under pressure. Pay attention to whether maintenance can drive further effective de-stocking of inventory [4] - **Policy Expectations**: The domestic real estate demand is still weak, but the market's sensitivity to policies has significantly increased. If there are real estate-related stimulus policies in May, the upward elasticity of the market will be higher than the downward elasticity [4] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to subsequent macro-policy changes and the intensity of spring maintenance, and choose the opportunity to go long on dips. The V2505 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4800, 5150] [4] Balance Sheet - **Capacity and Utilization**: In the first quarter, Xinpu Chemical's 500,000-ton capacity was put into production. In the second quarter, pay attention to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as Qingdao Gulf and Wanhua. The overall capacity utilization rate showed a narrow upward trend [5][6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production and export volume increased year-on-year, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The inventory showed a downward trend [5] Valuation - **Absolute Price**: The absolute price is at a low level year-on-year [8] - **Basis**: The basis is higher than the same period last year [10] - **Spread**: The 5-9 spread is biased towards positive arbitrage, and the term structure maintains a Contango structure [16] Supply - **Spring Maintenance**: The intensity of spring maintenance was insufficient, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, the overall supply is expected to increase [19][21] - **May Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises such as Tianchen Chemical and Xinjiang Yihua have maintenance plans in May, and the supply is expected to shrink [22] Macroeconomy - **PMI**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points, falling below the boom-bust line again after 2 months [23] - **Industrial Profits**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the total profits of industrial enterprises was -0.3%; among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the total profits of the manufacturing industry was +4.8%, and enterprise profits improved marginally [25] - **PPI and CPI**: In March 2025, the PPI was -2.5% year-on-year, remaining in the negative range for 30 consecutive months; the CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, negative for two consecutive months, and there is still overall deflationary pressure [27] Domestic Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream operating rate increased by 0.07 percentage points month-on-month but was at a low level year-on-year [28] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and commercial housing sales areas were -24.4%, -9.5%, -14.3%, and -3.0% respectively. The decline in new construction, completion, and sales areas narrowed, while the decline in construction area widened [34] - **Commercial Housing Transaction Area**: The commercial housing transaction area was weak [35] Exports - **Export Volume**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC export volume was 980,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 56%, maintaining high-speed growth [43] - **BIS Policy**: The original PVC import BIS policy that expired on December 24 was extended by six months to June 24, 2025 [43] Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [44] - **Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly [44] - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory increased continuously in April, and the delivery volume decreased compared with last year [46] Profit - **Northwest Chlor-alkali Integration**: The profit of the northwest chlor-alkali integration device is acceptable [48] Upstream Industry Chain - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as lanthanum carbon are at a low level year-on-year and remain stable [50][54] - **Caustic Soda Industry Chain**: The factory inventory of caustic soda is at a high level year-on-year, and the spot price has declined [56] Position - **09 Contract Position**: The position of the 09 contract has increased to more than 90,000 lots [60] - **Net Position Data**: As of April 29, the short position strength was slightly stronger, with 51% of the short position and 49% of the long position [64]