Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]