Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the nickel price may decline to find a valuation bottom if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, but in the long - term, the nickel price is supported by the US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and the new RKAB approval, so it is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Grouping by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices were stable this week. In the Philippines, the weather improved, but due to the rising nickel - iron price, the subsequent mine quotes may increase. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand was loose, the wet - process ore price declined slightly, but the downward space was limited as smelters accelerated stockpiling due to concerns about RKAB quotas [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: The nickel - iron price was stable. The supply side had stable ore prices, and although the smelter's profit loss was repaired, it was still low, so smelters held back supply. The demand side was supported by the expected increase in steel mills' production in September, but steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement. The nickel - iron price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available goods was tight, increasing the sellers' bargaining power. The demand side entered the peak season, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP increased, leading to a higher MHP coefficient price [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and some funds cashed in previous expectations, pressuring the non - ferrous sector. The spot market trading was average, and the spot premium of refined nickel was stable [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Refined nickel prices**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, LME closing price, and SHFE closing price all decreased, with declines of - 0.06%, - 0.22%, - 0.79%, and - 0.39% respectively. The import loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.10% [16]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory, SHFE inventory, and nickel - plate spot inventory increased by 1.49%, 8.49%, and 5.72% respectively, while the nickel - bean spot inventory decreased by - 0.12%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [16]. - **Spot premium**: The Russian nickel spot premium to the near - month contract was 300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the Jinchuan nickel spot premium averaged 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The domestic high - nickel pig iron price was 949 - 960 yuan/nickel point, up 1 yuan/nickel point from last week, and the domestic nickel sulfate price was 28,020 - 28,220 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: The domestic port nickel - ore inventory increased by 1.0% to 1400.1 million tons as of September 19. The nickel - ore prices were stable, with the 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore at 52.2 US dollars/wet ton and the 1.2% grade at 23 US dollars/wet ton, and the 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore at 57 US dollars/wet ton, all unchanged from last week [32][35]. - **Nickel - iron**: No specific new cost - related information was provided other than the production profit situation in previous periods [39]. - **Intermediate products**: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4000 tons month - on - month. As of September 19, the Indonesian MHP FOB price was 13,152 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient of 0.875 (up 0.005 from last week), and the high - grade nickel matte was 13,415 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient of 0.9 (unchanged) [42][47]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In August 2025, the national refined nickel production reached 37,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [52]. - **Demand**: No new significant demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of stainless - steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand [54][56]. - **Import and export**: No new import - export data or trends were provided other than historical import - export volume and import profit - loss trends [58]. - **Inventory**: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 2.1% to 269,000 tons this week [62]. - **Cost**: No new cost - related information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [64]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No new supply - related information was provided other than the historical production and net - import volume data [68]. - **Demand**: No new demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of ternary power - battery loading volume and ternary precursor production [71]. - **Cost and price**: No new cost - price information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [73]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global nickel supply and demand situation from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4 was presented. The total supply exceeded the total demand in most quarters, with a cumulative supply - demand surplus of 166,400 nickel tons in 2025 [79].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]