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玻璃供给存扰动预期,板块整体震荡格局不改
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different commodities in the black building materials sector, mostly indicating a "震荡" (sideways) trend, suggesting a neutral stance for the short - term investment in general [2][10][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the black building materials sector are generally stable. Without macro and policy boosts, the sector's prices are oscillating weakly. The glass with supply - side disturbances showed relatively strong price performance this week. The reduction in hot metal in the industry chain is due to seasonal characteristics and production - limiting measures, having limited negative impact on furnace material demand. When macro and policy levels release positive signals, it will support the prices of sector commodities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but the decline in ore prices is limited. With macro and policy uncertainties, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions, and its price is expected to follow that of finished products as the latter is under short - term pressure [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no significant contradictions. With short - term pressure on finished product prices, scrap steel prices are expected to follow finished products [2][9]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is high, so the expectation of a fourth - round increase is low. Given strong cost support, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is hard to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventories have reached multi - year lows. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][12]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term cost stability and high steel production support its price, but the market has a pessimistic supply - demand outlook, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient [2]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: High steel production and rising costs support its price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upside [2][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disturbed in the short - term, facing a downward risk. With medium and downstream inventories at a moderately high level, if production and sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline [3][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation is intensifying. Cost supports the price bottom, and the price will oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][13]. Steel - The fundamentals have limited support, and the futures market is running weakly. Spot market transactions are generally weak, and speculative sentiment is poor. Although steel mill profits have improved marginally, hot metal production has decreased from a high level due to environmental protection and seasonal maintenance. The output of five major steel products has increased, and demand has continued to recover. Steel inventories have continued to decline, but the year - on - year high inventory level remains unchanged. With the approaching end of the peak season, the demand outlook is still cautious, and the futures market is expected to face pressure after the cooling of macro sentiment [8]. Others - **Base Difference Seasonal Charts**: Include steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon ferrosilicon, silicon manganese, glass, and soda ash base differences [20][23][25]. - **Profit Seasonal Charts**: The report mentions profit seasonal charts but does not provide specific content [62]. - **Steel Daily Transactions**: The report mentions steel daily transactions but does not provide detailed content [82]. - **Commodity Index**: On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial product index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. The steel industry chain index on November 4, 2025, was 1997.33, with a daily decline of 1.24%, a 5 - day decline of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.26% [98][100].