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冠通期货早盘速递-20251010
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:37
早盘速递 2025/10/10 热点资讯 2025-10-09 2025-09-30 2025-09-29 2025-09-26 2025-09-25 2、工信部等三部门调整2026-2027年新能源车购置税减免技术要求,其中插混、增程式乘用车纯电续航里程由此前的43公里调 整至不低于100公里。2025年12月31日前已列入减免目录且符合最新要求的车型自动转入2026年第1期目录,不符合的将被撤销 。 3、今年国庆中秋假期消费市场增势良好。国内出游总花费8090.06亿元,较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1081.89亿元。全国消费 相关行业日均销售收入同比增长4.5%。其中,商品消费和服务消费同比分别增长3.9%和7.6%,数码产品、汽车消费增长较快。 4、据SMM调研了解,进入假期及节后阶段,随着环保限产持续推进,多数钢厂烧结机限产力度进一步加严,限产比例由30%提升 至40%-50%。部分钢厂反馈虽然已经在节前提前储备铁矿石,但现有库存恐难以维持至20日限产结束。若运输限制持续,原料供 应紧张可能进一步导致部分钢厂高炉停炉或降低生产负荷。预计未来1-2周高炉产能利用率将出现小幅下滑。 5、国家发改委制定 ...
盘面受政策预期扰动 螺纹钢短期或维持区间运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-19 07:05
Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures market is experiencing slight upward movement, with the main contract showing a 0.48% increase, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Rebar futures reached a peak of 3175.00 yuan, currently trading at 3164.00 yuan, reflecting a modest increase [1]. - The market is influenced by various factors, including inventory data and stock market performance, which have not led to a strong rebound despite positive inventory data [2]. - The demand for rebar is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the construction sector, while the automotive sector is experiencing a decline in demand for flat steel products [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures suggests focusing on short-selling opportunities in the rebar-iron ore ratio, indicating a cautious approach to market movements [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that there is still support for rebar prices, despite a decline in real estate investment and a slowdown in infrastructure and manufacturing growth [3]. - Zhonghui Futures anticipates that the rebar market may remain within a range due to high overall supply levels and limited demand improvements from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4].
华宝期货晨报煤焦-20250919
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental protection and production restriction policies in Tangshan, the upward movement of the futures market is somewhat weak, and it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia plan to raise coke prices next week due to rising costs [3] - Recently, due to the severe air quality situation in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to September 30th. The production restriction is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is not clear [3] Steel Mill Data - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons, and there is no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Coal Mine Conditions - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production reduction, there is still a small increase in production in major coal - producing areas in the short term, and the market will remain strong before the festival [3]
煤焦:盘面震荡运行,关注限产执行情况
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. Due to the poor air quality in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to 30th, but the specific production - limit plan is not clear. The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year due to concerns about the US labor market. Tangshan requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures from September 15th to 30th, and coking enterprises should extend the coking time by 30%. The production - limit is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is unclear. [2] 2. Supply Side - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production cuts, there is still a small increase in production in the short term. [3] 3. Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills is fast, and the daily average hot metal output last week quickly rebounded to over 2.4 million tons. The current profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. The finished products are in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, and the profit of steel mills has narrowed, which may limit the growth space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage. [3] 4. Market Outlook - The resumption of production on both the supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke is fast, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [3] 5. Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines. [3]
铅锌日评:区间整理-20250904
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices will remain range - bound [1]. - The zinc market has an increasing supply of both zinc ore and zinc ingots, while demand is in the off - season and inventories are accumulating, showing a weak fundamental situation. However, the extremely low overseas LME zinc inventory, the LME 0 - 3 shifting to a back structure, and high capital concentration drive up LME zinc prices, which will support SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be range - bound in the short term under the influence of external markets [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Related Key Data and Changes - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,750.00 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract is 16,865.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - The SHFE lead basis is - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 [1]. - The trading volume of the futures active contract is 30,342.00 lots, down 28.14% [1]. - The open interest of the futures active contract is 50,638.00 lots, down 1.68% [1]. - LME inventory is 254,550.00 tons, unchanged [1]. - SHFE lead warrant inventory is 55,874.00 tons, down 0.98% [1]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic session) is 1,995.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.08% [1]. - The SHFE - LME lead price ratio is 8.45, up 0.01% [1]. Lead - Related News - A small - to - medium - sized lead - zinc mine in Anhui is undergoing rectification and maintenance, expected to complete by the end of September and start the market quotation process in October. After normal operation, the monthly output of lead and zinc will reach about 450 metal tons [1]. - A large - scale secondary lead smelter in East China plans to stop production this Friday due to equipment maintenance and weak downstream lead consumption, which may reduce secondary lead production by over 8,000 tons in September [1]. Zinc - Related Key Data and Changes - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,170.00 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract is 22,285.00 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [1]. - The SHFE zinc basis is - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 [1]. - The trading volume of the futures active contract is 117,964.00 lots, down 6.15% [1]. - The open interest of the futures active contract is 104,733.00 lots, down 2.72% [1]. - LME inventory is 55,225.00 tons, unchanged [1]. - SHFE zinc warrant inventory is 40,947.00 tons, up 5.11% [1]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic session) is 2,869.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.14% [1]. - The SHFE - LME zinc price ratio is 7.77, down 0.32% [1]. Zinc - Related News - Some galvanized orders that could not be delivered on time due to environmental restrictions in Tianjin and Hebei have flowed to galvanizing plants in Shandong and Henan [1]. - A galvanizing plant in Hebei has been under maintenance since August 20 due to a zinc pot problem, expected to resume normal production on September 5, affecting about 5,000 tons of galvanized product output [1]. - Environmental requirements in Tianjin and Hebei were lifted at 0:00 on September 4, and local and surrounding galvanizing plants began to resume normal production. Some galvanizing plants in Henan stopped production on August 31 due to environmental requirements and the impact was lifted at 12:00 on September 3, with a relatively small overall impact [1].
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250902
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 11:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250827
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On August 27, 2025, the urea futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,737 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.52%. The spot market was partially stable, and prices in some peripheral areas continued to decline. The urea supply was fluctuating at a high level, with a daily output of 192,400 tons on August 26, a daily increase of 100 tons. The demand side remained cautious, and the spot sales-to-production ratio in the mainstream areas showed significant differentiation. The short - term domestic urea market sentiment was under pressure, but subsequent environmental protection restrictions in the north, transportation conditions, and the latest Indian urea tender results in early September could be new factors. The volatility of the urea futures market may increase [1]. - On August 27, 2025, the soda ash futures price first fluctuated narrowly and then dropped significantly in the afternoon. The main 01 contract closed at 1,311 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.80%. The spot market quotation was basically stable, and the traders' quotations declined with the market sentiment. Large - scale enterprises in Qinghai and Inner Mongolia reduced their loads, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 81.33% on August 26. The demand side was even weaker, and the resumption of production in the float glass industry provided limited support for the rigid demand of soda ash. The overall fundamentals of soda ash had no obvious improvement, and the short - term new driving forces in the futures market were still limited. There might be phased market conditions as themes such as the reduction of alkali plant loads, production restrictions, and the return of the chemical sector sentiment fermented [1]. - On August 27, 2025, the glass futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. The spot market quotation increased locally, and the average price of the domestic float glass market on August 26 was 1,151 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton. There was a phenomenon of production line ignition and resumption, but the glass daily melting volume remained stable at 159,600 tons. The glass supply was expected to increase. The demand side sentiment improved, and the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas mostly recovered to over 100%. However, logistics and transportation restrictions in some areas might suppress the enterprise's shipment speed. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of glass was still not optimistic [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Information - **Urea**: On August 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts at Zhengshang Institute were 5,123, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 33. The daily output of the urea industry was 192,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous working day and 24,900 tons from the same period last year. The industry operating rate was 83.12%, a 7.17 - percentage - point increase from 75.95% in the same period last year. The spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hebei 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,720 yuan/ton (- 10), Jiangsu 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On August 26, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts at Zhengshang Institute was 9,178, a decrease of 135 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,911; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,099, an increase of 456 from the previous trading day. The soda ash spot prices in various regions were provided. The soda ash industry operating rate on August 26 was 81.33%, down from 83.98% on the previous working day. The average price of the float glass market on August 26 was 1,151 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton, and the industry daily output was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price of the main contract, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spread, spot price trend, and futures price spread of urea, soda ash, and glass, which visually show the price trends and relationships of these products over time [9][10][12][16][18][20]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen. They have rich experience and many honors in the field of futures analysis, covering various product categories such as sugar, urea, soda ash, cotton, and iron alloy [23].
宁证期货今日早评-20250827
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market for various commodities shows different trends, with most facing short - term uncertainties and being influenced by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, and policy - related factors. Overall, a cautious approach is recommended for most commodities, including waiting and watching or short - term trading [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Manganese Silicon - The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises reached 46.37%, with daily output at 30,170 tons, a new high in over a year. Cost support has weakened slightly, and demand is expected to decline during the parade. In the short term, the price decline is limited, but there is downward pressure in the medium - to - long term [1]. Crude Oil - US commercial crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories decreased. The key factor is OPEC+'s potential accelerated production increase. The market is currently in a short - term weak and volatile state due to the balance between production increase expectations and stable inventories [1]. Coking Coal - The fundamentals of coking coal have no significant change. Supply is constrained, and demand is under pressure in the short term. The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors, with the futures contract oscillating within a range [3]. Rebar - Steel prices turned from rising to falling. The initial price increase was due to environmental protection restrictions and rising coking futures, but weak demand limited the rebound. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Live Pigs - Pig prices continued to fall, but market resistance has emerged after continuous decline. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August. The market is affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel blending exemption policy. Domestic import profits are good, and the short - term market is volatile. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. Soybeans - Brazilian soybean, soybean meal, and corn export forecasts have decreased. The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term due to upcoming new - bean supply and limited demand [5]. PTA - PTA operating rate decreased due to maintenance. Polyester inventory decreased, and demand is expected to increase during the traditional peak season, but the sustainability is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Rubber - Rubber production in Thailand and other regions is affected by rain, and demand from the domestic tire industry is weak. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - term trading [6]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - The price of soda ash is weak, production has increased slightly, and inventory has risen. The float glass market is stable, and downstream procurement is mainly for low - price needs. The 01 contract is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. Polypropylene - Polypropylene production is stable, supply is abundant, and commercial inventory has decreased but remains high. The market price is volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [9].
黑色建材日报-20250827
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]
煤焦:焦炭现货第8轮提涨,盘面震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:05
Group 1 - No industry investment rating is provided Group 2 - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are rising, market sentiment is still fluctuating. Fundamentally, raw material demand remains good for now but shows a tendency of short - term phased decline. Coal and coke prices are more volatile [3] Group 3 Market Logic - On August 25, the price of coking coal fluctuated strongly. As the September 3 parade approaches, the social impact of safety accidents should be noted. Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks led the market to bet on a September rate cut, driving up commodity prices. Some high - priced coal resources at mines had weak sales, and prices were stable. Hebei coke enterprises started the 8th round of price increase [2] Environmental Production Restrictions - Tangshan steel mills received an oral notice of environmental production restrictions. From August 25 to September 3, sintering machines are to be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 to September 3, blast furnaces are to be restricted by 40%. Henan coke enterprises are to implement voluntary production restrictions from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20% - 35% [2] Fundamentals - Last week, Shanxi coal mines continued to increase production slowly, with the daily average output of clean coal reaching 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. After the downstream's centralized inventory replenishment ended, mines started to accumulate inventory again. Short - term coal mine production is expected to continue to resume, and pithead inventory will rise due to weakening demand. Last week, steel mills maintained high - level operations, with the daily average hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production restrictions this week [2]