Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - During the important national conference, steel mills are expected to implement phased emission reduction controls, putting pressure on the rigid demand for coking coal and other furnace materials. The supply and demand mismatch during the mine's resumption of production may cause the prices of coking coal and coke to perform weaker than those of finished products [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of the ferrous metal sector fluctuated and declined, with coking coal and coke performing relatively weaker [2] Policy Impact - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 national important conference from March 4th to March 11th, which requires enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30%. This emission reduction news has made it difficult for coking coal and coke prices to rebound [2] Supply Side - This week, coal mines have officially entered the peak period of resumption of production, and most private coal mines have started to resume production. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal this week is 1.516 million tons and 649,000 tons respectively, an increase of 430,000 tons and 190,000 tons compared with the previous week. The Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal has resumed customs clearance, with a customs clearance volume of about 180,000 tons on February 23rd, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a relatively high level [2] Demand Side - This week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces is about 2.33 million tons. Affected by the environmental protection and emission reduction policy next week, the growth rhythm of hot metal output is expected to slow down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, there have been accidents in some steel mills, and environmental protection and production restrictions still exist, causing disturbances on the supply side. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment, the prices of furnace materials have stabilized, and there is support at the cost end. However, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more apparent, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside space of the market is limited. The prices of glass and soda ash have risen from low levels, but the oversupply situation continues to suppress the market prices [1][2]. - In general, the fundamentals during the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the replenishment intensity of downstream enterprises. At the same time, the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the prices of furnace materials still have the expectation of a rebound from low levels. Pay attention to the disturbances of macro - policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The current supply and demand on both sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - For coke, the cost end still has room for a rebound, and there are still expectations of steel mill production resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. For coking coal, the winter storage on the demand side is still ongoing, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited after the trading logic changes, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure above; however, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited. It is expected that the price will mainly operate at a low level around the cost valuation. For ferrosilicon, the current supply and demand in the market are both weak, the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the sector in the short term [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, there are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]. 3.5 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills continues to improve. The iron and steel production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weak, the inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season is obvious, and the fundamental contradictions are slowly accumulating. The supply side is disturbed, the cost side has support, but the upside of the market is under pressure. Pay attention to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [8]. 3.6 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have also declined. The supply side may be disturbed due to weather. The iron and steel production has increased slightly month - on - month, the steel mills' replenishment is in progress, but the enthusiasm is still weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are increasing, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the price. The current supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - The supply has recovered significantly, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [10]. 3.8 Coke - The supply has slightly increased, the demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory has increased steadily. The cost end still has room for a small rebound, the supply - demand structure may tighten, the spot price increase will be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12]. 3.9 Coking Coal - The domestic supply is stable, and the imported Mongolian coal has increased. The winter storage of coking enterprises is in progress, and the upstream inventory is being digested. The downstream inventory is gradually in place, and the spot market sentiment has cooled. The demand side's winter storage is still ongoing, the supply is expected to decline, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, the spot price still has a small upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.10 Glass - The macro is neutral. The supply is expected to decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the valuation. The supply may be disturbed, the current supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The macro is neutral. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [14][16]. 3.12 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The black sector is trending warmer, and the futures price of the main contract is moving stronger. The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the price is under pressure above. However, the current price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation. Pay attention to the adjustment of raw material prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15][16][18]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and the futures price of the main contract is following the sector to oscillate stronger. The cost is at a relatively high level and supports the price bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, the market trading activity is poor, and the futures price is expected to follow the black sector in the short term. Pay attention to the adjustment of blue carbon prices and settlement electricity prices and the production control trends in the main production areas [16][17]. 3.14 Commodity Index - On January 22, 2026, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.03% in the past month, and increased by 0.05% since the beginning of the year [103][104].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the US inflation data in November met expectations, stabilizing market expectations for the Fed in 2026. Trump postponed new tariffs on key mineral imports, and NVIDIA significantly reduced copper usage in data centers, suppressing precious metal and copper prices and cooling the bullish sentiment in the metal sector. Domestically and in Indonesia, newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects continued to ramp up production. The consumption - side saw a slight increase in the开工 rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils, while other sectors remained relatively weak. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 736,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory rose by 36,500 tons to 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday. Overall, the bullish sentiment in the metal market subsided, SHFE aluminum positions declined slightly, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the fundamentals and continuous inventory accumulation, putting upward pressure on aluminum prices, leading to high - level volatile adjustments, which are expected to be limited in the medium - to - long - term due to supply constraints [3][8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, last week, the aluminum alloy开工 rate remained stable at 58%. Repeated environmental protection policies and high costs hindered enterprises' resumption of production, keeping the开工 rate low. On the consumption side, downstream customers still had a fear of high prices, but due to continuously high aluminum prices, they were forced to replenish stocks, resulting in a slight increase in recent inquiries. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 110 tons to 70,000 tons. In summary, the cost support for cast aluminum has slightly weakened, and there is increased pressure for price adjustment in the off - season of demand. However, the uncertainty of regional tax policies and environmental protection restrictions form a rigid constraint on the supply side, and macro - favorable factors provide support, so the adjustment range is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price decreased from 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, to 3,128.5 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a drop of 20.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 24,420 dollars/ton to 24,020 dollars/ton, a decline of 400 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.8 to 7.7, a decrease of 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,825 tons to 488,000 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 49,838 tons to 140,750 tons. The spot average price increased by 442 yuan/ton to 24,302 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 24,302 yuan/ton, up 442 yuan/ton from last week; the South China Storage spot weekly average price was 24,334 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of the macro - environment, the US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The PPI and core PPI in November increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy cost increase was the main driver of the PPI rise. The US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth since July last year. The market expected a 95% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in January 2026. China's foreign trade imports and exports in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and announced five other measures related to structural monetary policy tools [6][7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's开工 rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. The开工 rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased slightly, mainly driven by pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment and the demand for can materials and packaging foils. Currently, the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment cycle has started, providing some support for the开工 rate of each sector, but high aluminum prices have restricted the scale of inventory replenishment, and with insufficient new orders, the increase is expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, on January 15, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons compared to before the holiday [7]. - For cast aluminum, the Friday SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 23,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 147 yuan/ton to 2,614 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 93 yuan/ton to 3,743 yuan/ton. Last week, the开工 rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained flat at 58%. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 110 tons to 70,000 tons [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the market sentiment is bearish, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulating, leading to high - level volatile adjustments with limited medium - to - long - term adjustment. In the cast aluminum sector, there is increased pressure for price adjustment, but the adjustment range is expected to be limited due to supply - side constraints and macro - favorable factors [8]. 4. Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 545,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, as the benchmark price rises, the tariff part of the "premium" paid by buyers has increased from about 1,300 dollars per ton in June to 1,550 dollars per ton. China's automobile production and sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 34 million vehicles, setting a new record, and new energy vehicles have become the dominant force in the market, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [10][11]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, aluminum premiums, inventory seasonal changes, etc., which visually display the market data and trends of aluminum [13][14][16][18][20][22][24][27][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear long - position trend, and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of steel products is gradually easing, but the overall domestic demand is weak. The market is in a short - term range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] - Iron ore has a large supply pressure, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of winter - storage replenishment by steel mills, the short - term price is supported, and the future trend is expected to be volatile [3] - Coke and coking coal have abundant carbon - element supply, and although the downstream demand has some resilience, the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress prices. After the price corrects the premium/discount, it still faces fundamental pressure, and there is intensified capital game on the market due to the expectation of stimulus policies [4][6] - For silicon manganese, affected by the rebound of the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the supply and demand are relatively fragile. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7] - For silicon iron, the market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - The thread market is in a weak and volatile state in the off - season. The apparent demand has declined, the production has increased slightly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The hot - roll demand has recovered, the production has increased slightly, and the de - stocking has accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the profit of steel mills has improved marginally [2] - The real - estate investment decline has continued to expand, the investment growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing has continued to decline, the domestic demand is still weak overall, the steel export remains at a high level, and the December PMI has rebounded to 50.1, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. The domestic arrival volume has decreased month - on - month but is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory has continued to accumulate at a high level at the beginning of the week [3] - The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, the iron - water production last week was basically stable, and it is expected to be at the bottom of the stage, with little possibility of further significant reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The fourth round of price reduction has been fully implemented, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream purchases on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] Coking Coal - The price has oscillated during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. Some mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to factors such as safety production and completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price has increased slightly, and the terminal inventory has slightly increased [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has oscillated during the day. Driven by the market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end may change the manganese - ore formula, and the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore may increase [7] - The iron - water production has declined seasonally, the weekly production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Silicon Iron - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The market expects an increase in coal supply, which may lead to a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production has rebounded to a high - level range, the export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, the overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong at a high level in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop in mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, as the New Year holiday approaches, market trading is light. After the December 9 - 10 meeting, six policymakers opposed interest rate cuts, and the Fed's next meeting is on January 27 - 28, with investors expecting rates to remain unchanged [2] - On the supply side, new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and a new project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, so the daily output is expected to continue to increase [3] - High prices inhibit downstream demand, and with increased environmental control in the Central Plains, some local aluminum processing enterprises have shut down, and the spot demand has shrunk, with production expected to resume after the New Year's Day holiday, and the开工 rate has declined [3] - The comprehensive PMI of China's aluminum processing industry in December was 42.4%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a contraction cycle. Among them, the PMI of the aluminum plate and strip industry was 36.3%, hitting a new low [3] - On Monday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 645,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - Aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum enterprises have mostly completed long - term order signing. Attention should be paid to possible alumina enterprise production cuts due to profit compression, and electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: Threaded steel, hot rolled steel, and iron ore are rated ☆☆☆; coke and coking coal are rated ★☆★; silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are rated ★★☆ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has minor supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market will mainly fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes. The iron ore price is expected to be supported in the short term but will mainly fluctuate. The coke and coking coal prices face fundamental pressure after discount repair, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games. For silicon manganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuated today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declined, while its production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot rolled steel recovered, with production rising slightly and inventory reduction accelerating, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month and reached a new high this year, while the domestic arrival volume decreased month - on - month with an expected increase in the future. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the news of a possible increase in stacking costs strengthened the supply release expectation. The steel mill profitability has improved recently, and the molten iron production last week was basically stable. The iron ore supply pressure is still high, but with the sign of molten iron production bottoming out and the expectation of steel mill winter storage replenishment, the short - term price is expected to be supported, and the future trend will mainly be fluctuating [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward today. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has fully landed, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. Currently, downstream customers purchase on a small - scale and demand - based basis, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased seasonally. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated strongly today. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The semi - carbonate manganese ore price increased last week. The molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated strongly today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for rebar is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for hot-rolled coil is ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for iron ore is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. - The investment rating for coke is ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for coking coal is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for silicon manganese is ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend and the market is currently evolving [1]. - The investment rating for ferrosilicon is ★☆★, the white star implies that the short - term bullish or bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a slightly bullish short - term trend with caution due to factors like demand, supply, and macro - policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to trade sideways in the short term with a relatively loose fundamental situation [3]. - The coke market will likely trade sideways as the market anticipates stimulus policies despite a rich carbon supply and downstream demand characteristics [4]. - The coking coal market is likely to trade sideways as it faces fundamental pressure after discount repair but also has expectations for stimulus policies [6]. - For silicon manganese, it's recommended to try going long on dips considering the market situation [7]. - For ferrosilicon, it's recommended to try going long on dips given the demand and supply situation [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's supply and demand have both decreased, and de - stocking has accelerated slightly but pressure remains. Iron - water production has continued to fall, supply pressure is easing, and the slowdown of steel mill production cuts may slow. The downstream demand is weak, and exports are high. The short - term trading floor is expected to be slightly bullish [2]. Iron Ore - The global supply of iron ore is strong with high - end - of - year shipment expectations. Domestic arrivals are also strong, and port inventory has increased significantly. The demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production cuts are expected to slow. The short - term trading floor is expected to trade sideways [3]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [4]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. Production has slightly decreased, spot auction prices have slightly increased, and inventory has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [6]. Silicon Manganese - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. There are structural problems in port inventory. Iron - water production has decreased seasonally, and silicon manganese production and inventory have slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [7]. Ferrosilicon - There are expectations of coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production has rebounded, export demand has decreased, and metal magnesium production has increased. Supply has significantly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in macro policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be mainly volatile, with market expectations for stimulus policies [4][5] - For silicon manganese, it is recommended to try long positions on dips [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to try long positions on dips [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures price rose and then fell today. The apparent demand for thread improved slightly, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated slightly, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Pig iron production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, steel mill profits improved marginally, and the production reduction trend may slow down. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, domestic demand was still weak overall, steel exports remained high, and the actual impact of license management remains to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price was weakly volatile today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were still stronger than the same period last year. There is an expectation of a shipment rush by mines at the end of the year, and overseas shipments are expected to remain strong [3] - The domestic arrival volume decreased month-on-month but was still at a high level in the same period, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand in the off-season is at a low level. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, pig iron production has decreased significantly. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has decreased, and there is currently no active replenishment demand [3] Coke - The coke futures price was strongly volatile today. The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing on a small scale as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price was widely volatile today. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or suspended production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks [5] - Coking coal production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased, and total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with production-side inventory also increasing slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures price was mainly volatile today. Driven by the rebound in the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for furnace charging. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases significantly, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, pig iron production decreased seasonally. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price was mainly strong today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, pig iron production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; UR05 - 09 for positive spread trading at low levels; No recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core Viewpoints - As environmental protection restrictions are gradually lifted, it is expected that both urea enterprises and downstream industries will see a slight increase in their operating rates. Recently, the spot trading of urea has slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The pending orders of mainstream producers still provide support, so the price is expected to remain stable for the time being. On the supply side, gas - based production units will start maintenance in December in the fourth quarter, and the enterprises that previously reduced production due to environmental protection issues are gradually resuming. On the demand side, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The demand from industries affected by environmental protection is gradually recovering. The introduction of raw material supply policies for compound fertilizers has cooled down the market sentiment, leading some enterprises to reduce production and causing the overall operating rate to decline slightly. The operating rate of melamine plants has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Procurement in major producing areas has slowed down, and inventory in factories has decreased due to reserve demand in the Northeast and Northwest, while port inventory has slightly increased. With the alleviation of environmental protection issues this week, industrial demand is expected to increase slightly. Continuous attention should be paid to the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Urea Basis Structure - The section may involve the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, the price of the main continuous contract of urea, and the price spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads) [7][8][10] 2. Urea Production - It may cover the weekly production of urea and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - This part includes the production cost, spot production profit, on - paper production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [27][28][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The section contains the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the price difference between the Baltic Sea FOB and China FOB, the price difference between the Southeast Asian CFR and China FOB, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit [34][40][42] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It involves the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - This part includes the upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the trading volume, and the open interest of the main contract [55][58][65] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 22, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,698 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,720 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 32 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan it was - 8 yuan/ton (-1), and in Jiangsu it was 22 yuan/ton (+19). The production profit of urea was 151 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 846 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Supply Side - As of December 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 80.69% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.97 million tons (-5.45 million tons), and the inventory of port samples was 13.80 million tons (+1.50 million tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.37% (-1.25%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.55% (-3.31%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.24 days (-0.70 days) [1]