| | | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年11月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需有所好转，产量同步回升，库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，库存开始下降。下游 承接能力不足，钢厂整体延续亏损状态，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，供应压力逐步缓解，关注唐山等地环保限产持续性, 从下游行业看 ...

【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。本周螺纹表需有所好转，产量同步回升，库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，库存开始下降。 下游承接能力不足，钢厂整体延续亏损状态，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，供应压力逐步缓解，关注唐山等地环保限产持续 性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口高位有所回落。 需求预期仍偏悲观，成本端煤焦依然疲弱，盘面整体依然承压，震荡区间下移仍有一定支撑，短期关注宏观情绪变化。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面震荡。供应端，全球发运偏强,四季度发运量预计维持高位,国内港口库存本周阶段下滑,整体仍然保持累库趋 势，短期存在一定结构性犹动。需求端，钢材表需环比有所反弹，但目前进入淡季并且钢厂盈利情况较差，铁水本周小幅减 产，仍然处于李节性减产趋势中，减产速度有所放缓，短期关注宏观层面是否会有利好政策出台。铁矿石基本面边际转宽松， 我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格下行。焦化利润一般，日产持续微降。焦炭库存微增,目前下游少量按需采购,库存变动不大,贸易商采购意愿一 般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水仍在高位区间，不过库存小幅下降。炼焦煤总库 ...

| | | | 11/11/11 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★★★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续回落。本周螺纹表需有所好转，产量同步回升，库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，库存开始下降。 下游承接能力不足，钢厂整体延续亏损状态，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，供应压力逐步缓解，关注唐山等地环保限产持续 性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

| SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年11月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鐵 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡小幅回落。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放 缓。铁水产量有所回升，下游承接能力不足，钢厂亏损比例扩大，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，供应压力逐步缓解，关注唐 山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，她产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放缓。 铁水产量有所回升,下游承接能力不足,钢厂亏损比例扩大,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等 地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，她产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the cost center shifting down due to the decline of furnace materials, and the steel plate is under pressure, mainly in a weak shock in the short term [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with the supply side showing some fluctuations and the demand side weakening due to reduced steel demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are facing pressure from reduced downstream demand and abundant carbon element supply, with prices expected to be relatively strong in a shock [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by the decline in iron - water production, with different supply - demand situations and price trends [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - In the off - season, the apparent demand and production of thread steel and hot - rolled coil both decline, and the inventory situation varies. Iron - water production falls from a high level, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from a high level. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the plate is under pressure [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined month - on - month, and domestic arrivals have dropped significantly but are still at a high level, with port inventories continuing to increase. On the demand side, steel demand in the off - season has decreased, and iron - water production has continued to decrease. The market is trading the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3]. Coke - The price has declined during the day. The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price adjustment is poor. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, with downstream demand for raw materials decreasing [4]. Coking Coal - The price has declined during the day. Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly. The total inventory has increased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as safety inspections in coal - producing areas and reduced downstream demand [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is weakly volatile. The demand has decreased due to the decline in iron - water production. The weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price of manganese ore has shown some fluctuations [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is weakly volatile. The demand from iron - water production has decreased, but the export demand has increased marginally, and the secondary demand has also increased. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory has decreased. Cost factors may lead to a price rebound [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (implied by the context as more positive) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (implied by the context as more positive) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand expectations and declining exports, with the disk remaining under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, while the coke and coking coal markets may be in a relatively strong and volatile state. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have strong price support at the bottom [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The disk showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand and production of thread steel and hot rolled coil both declined, with inventory changes varying. Iron - water production continued to fall, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remained to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from the high level. The disk was under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range and marginal demand changes [1] Iron Ore - The disk declined. The global iron ore shipment was at a high level, and the domestic arrival volume increased significantly. The port inventory was accumulating. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the iron - water production continued to decrease. The supply - demand relationship was gradually loosening, and there was still a risk of negative feedback in the off - season industrial chain. It was expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Coke - The price fluctuated downward. After the third round of price increase was quickly implemented, there was an expectation of a fourth round. The coking profit was average, and the daily production and inventory decreased slightly. The downstream demand was weak, and the steel mills had a strong desire to lower the price. The disk price was at a premium, and it was expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward. The Mongolian coal import volume was high, and the coking coal production decreased slightly. The total inventory increased slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections. The downstream demand was weak, and the steel mills had a strong desire to lower the price. The disk price was at a discount to Mongolian coal, and it was expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated. The iron - water production continued to decline, while the weekly production of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the inventory was slowly accumulating. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the price had strong support at the bottom [6] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated. The iron - water production continued to decline, but the export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The supply remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased. The price had strong support at the bottom [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - As the off - season begins, the expectation of weakening steel demand remains unchanged, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down, putting pressure on steel prices. With the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, the weekly hot metal output is expected to stop falling and rise, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The coal mine production remains restricted this week, and the coal mine inventory continues to decline at a low level. The coking coal fundamentals are still supported, corresponding to the price stop - falling and rising since yesterday. The strong furnace material prices further support the steel cost. With no new changes in macro and policies, the prices of short - term sector varieties will maintain an oscillatory operation [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Iron, Carbon, and Alloy Elements - **Iron Element**: This week, hot metal output shows signs of stopping decline, but considering the seasonal maintenance of steel enterprises in the traditional off - season, the overall downward trend of hot metal remains unchanged, corresponding to the marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. However, there are still disturbances from internal and external macro and policy expectations, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. The short - term finished product prices are under pressure, and scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [3]. - **Carbon Element**: After three rounds of coke price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is relatively large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is currently small. Given the strong cost support for coke and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate. This week, both domestic coking coal supply and upstream inventory have decreased, and the coking coal fundamentals remain relatively healthy. It is expected that coking coal supply will still be difficult to improve in the future. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years, and the short - term fundamentals remain healthy. The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Alloy**: In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase of ferromanganese - silicon. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply disturbance expectations have fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to oscillate downward. Recently, downstream enterprises have started to replenish inventory as they think the price is appropriate. After the inventory of soda ash plants is depleted, the price has slightly increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4][7]. 3. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, mainly at low prices. Recently, the profit of steel mills has marginally improved, but affected by environmental protection restrictions and seasonal maintenance of steel mills, hot metal output has declined from a high level, and steel production shows a downward trend. As the peak season is coming to an end, the demand side faces the pressure of falling from a high level. Steel inventory continues to be depleted, but the depletion speed has slowed down, and the inventory level remains higher than the same period last year. The short - term macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure for adjustment, but the cost side still has support, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The port transactions have decreased, and the spot market transactions have weakened. From a fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipping end is relatively stable, and the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly in the past month, but the average arrival volume basically meets expectations. The demand side has a slight increase in the daily consumption of sintered powder ore, and there is an expectation of a month - on - month increase in hot metal, but the profitability rate of steel mills continues to weaken, and the peak season is gradually ending, which may limit the recovery space of hot metal. In terms of inventory, under sintering restrictions, the inventory of sintered powder ore has increased month - on - month, and the production and inventory of sintered ore have slightly decreased. The market sentiment is weak, but the price still has support when the demand does not weaken significantly [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly this week, approaching the level of the same period last year. The demand has also increased, with an increase in the daily consumption of electric furnaces in various regions. The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in 255 steel mills has decreased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term finished product prices are under pressure. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price in Rizhao Port remains unchanged. After three rounds of price increases, the supply of coke is difficult to increase due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand side is affected by environmental protection in Tangshan, and hot metal has declined significantly in the short - term. If the environmental protection inspection intensity weakens in the future, hot metal may still have a slight upward trend. The overall supply - demand of coke is relatively healthy, and the fundamentals have no major contradictions. After three rounds of price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is small. Given the strong cost support and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price has increased. The supply of domestic coking coal and upstream inventory have both decreased this week. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, but high - quality resources at the port are still in short supply. The downstream coking enterprises still have the enthusiasm to replenish inventory, and the coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years. The short - term fundamentals remain healthy, and the coking coal price is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Glass**: The supply disturbance expectation has fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream has started to replenish inventory at low prices, and the spot price has slightly increased. The supply side has a daily output of 104,000 tons, and some manufacturers are under maintenance, with the output remaining unchanged month - on - month. The demand side has a stable and good demand for heavy soda ash, and the downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered to some extent. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [15][17]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures market price has slightly increased, and the cost support and supply - demand pressure are in a stalemate. The spot market is waiting for the performance of the new round of steel tenders, and the manufacturers' shipment situation is average, with the downstream's price - cutting sentiment remaining. The short - term cost is firm, supporting the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures market price is strongly oscillating, and the settlement electricity price increase strengthens the cost support, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the increase in the futures market. The spot market remains stable, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost pressure. The short - term cost trend is strong, supporting the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and there is insufficient driving force for the price to rise [18].