晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦炭现货第 8 轮提涨 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 26 日 逻辑：昨日，焦煤价格整体震荡偏强运行。时间临近 9.3 阅兵，安全 事故的社会影响值得关注；美联储鲍威尔发言偏鸽，市场开始重新加注九 月降息，促使商品普涨。现货端，部分煤矿点高价资源成交乏力，价格暂 稳运行；昨日河北地区焦企开始第 8 轮提涨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 观点：海外降息预期升温，市场情绪仍有反复。基本面上原料需求暂 保持良好，短期存在阶段性下滑倾向 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-26） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 焦炭： 1、基本面：随着阅兵活动临近，多地焦企陆续收到限产通知，执行不同程度减产。据河南省环保要求， 自8月25日起省内焦化企业限产幅度为25%-30%，部分地区焦企已着手准备限产，区域内供应持续收紧； 偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1630，基差-106；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存609.8万吨，港口库存215.1万吨，独立焦企库存39.3万吨，总样本库存864.2万吨， 较上周减少17.9万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦炭主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：钢厂铁水产量仍处相对高位，刚需支撑延续，但成材市场近期走势偏弱，钢厂对焦炭采购节 奏趋于 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产低于预 | | ★ | | 期，供需预计趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，行情持续回落。但后期不排除 | | | | 仍会有政策扰动，同时在美联储释放宽松信号后，短期或反弹。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需以及库存均略增，基本面相对平稳。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。期货偏弱运行，连续下跌后短期下方空间或已有限，短线或有反 | | ★ | | 弹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，环保限产力度不及预期，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 基本面中性偏弱。宏观情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第八轮提涨，焦企利润有所改善，利润总体转正。当前焦炭供需总体相对 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 平衡，产量及库存偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment cools down, and with the approaching parade time, there is an expectation of declining demand, causing prices to run under pressure [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, coking coal prices fluctuated weakly with a downward price center. Recently, the exchange tightened the opening restrictions on the coking coal 2601 contract and increased the intraday trading handling fee, leading to a fluctuating decline in coking coal prices. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak transactions, and prices declined. After the sixth round of coke price increase, individual coke enterprises in some regions planned further price increases, but mainstream coke enterprises had not issued letters yet [2] Environmental Production Restrictions - It is understood that steel mills in Tangshan have received oral notices of environmental production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%. Additionally, some steel mills reported that from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40%. Continued attention should be paid to the production reduction situation of steel mills [2] Fundamentals - This week, coal mines in Shanxi maintained a production - increasing rhythm, but the overall increase was slow. The daily average output of clean coal in coal mines this week was 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. After the downstream's centralized replenishment ended, the mines started to accumulate inventory again. According to Mysteel research, coal mines are expected to continue the resumption of production in the short term. Due to weakening demand, pit - mouth inventories will continue to rise [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Market sentiment is cooling down, and with the approaching parade time, there is an expectation of a decline in demand, causing prices to face downward pressure [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Logic**: Yesterday, coking coal prices fluctuated weakly with a downward shift in the price center. Recently, the exchange tightened the opening restrictions on the coking coal 2601 contract and increased the intraday trading handling fee to calm market sentiment, leading to a pull - back after the coking coal price soared. Over the weekend, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, impacting the market sentiment. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices declined. After the sixth round of coke price increases, some coke enterprises in certain regions planned further price hikes. In terms of environmental production restrictions, Tangshan steel mills received oral notices of environmental production restrictions, with a 30% sintering machine production limit from August 25th to September 3rd and a 40% blast furnace production limit from August 31st to September 3rd. Fundamentally, last week, Shanxi coal mines resumed the production - increasing rhythm, but some mines in Linfen reduced production due to underground conditions and the implementation of the 276 - working - day policy, resulting in slow overall production increase in Shanxi. Mysteel's research predicts that coal mines will likely continue the resumption of production this week, but due to multiple factors such as environmental protection and safety, the production - increasing progress is slow and easily interrupted by emergencies [2] - **View**: Market sentiment is cooling down, and with the approaching parade time, there is an expectation of a decline in demand, causing prices to face downward pressure [3] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors**: Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Urea**: The domestic urea daily production continues to rise, but the domestic demand is still insufficient, and the fundamental driving force of urea is limited. The easing of China - India relations brings expectations of export growth. The short - term urea futures market will continue to be in a relatively strong state, but the upside is limited due to the price - stabilizing policy. It is not recommended to chase the rise blindly. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender results, China's participation in the supply, export policy dynamics, this week's inventory data, and spot trading conditions [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply level of soda ash is still high, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamental situation of soda ash remains weak, and there is a lack of new driving forces in the futures market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether environmental protection restrictions will disrupt the supply side, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand contradiction of glass still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the market. The short - term downstream may stock up raw sheets before the environmental protection restrictions in early September, but the subsequent downstream processing enterprises may be affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rigid demand for glass and enterprise shipments will be further suppressed. It is expected that the weak state of the glass futures price will continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection events on both supply and demand sides, glass spot trading conditions, the overall sentiment of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 19, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts. - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on this day was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase from 76.31% in the same period last year. - On August 19, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 19, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,020, an increase of 828 from the previous trading day, with 851 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,438, unchanged from the previous trading day. - On August 19, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30), and heavy soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30). - On August 19, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.89%, down from 90.58% on the previous working day. - On August 19, the average price of the float glass market was 1,153 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those of urea basis, soda ash basis, urea and soda ash main contract trading volume and open interest, urea 2601 - 2509 spread, soda ash 2601 - 2509 spread, urea and soda ash spot price trends, urea - methanol futures spread, and glass - soda ash futures spread. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][15][21]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of environmental production restrictions has cooled, leading to a focus on demand recovery. Despite high production levels, the steel demand has dropped to seasonal lows, and the market is advised to monitor the transition between peak and off-peak seasons for signs of demand recovery [3][4]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply, potentially improving profitability for steel companies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 15, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (down 30 CNY), high wire at 3,470 CNY/ton (down 30 CNY), hot-rolled at 3,460 CNY/ton (down 10 CNY), cold-rolled at 3,880 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY), and medium plate at 3,520 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY) [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.72 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons week-on-week. However, rebar production decreased by 7,300 tons to 2.2045 million tons. Total social inventory rose by 282,900 tons to 9.8978 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in long product profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -24 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also decreased by 18 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, while also suggesting attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [3][4].

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 14 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：交易所调整交易规则 盘面波动加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑：昨日，焦煤期货价格震荡回 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market bullish sentiment remains strong, the futures market sees increased positions and rising prices with intensified price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the previous high. On the spot side, high - priced resources at some mines had weak sales, and prices declined. The 6th round of coke price increase was blocked, and there was an expectation of price reduction under the influence of environmental protection production - restriction news [2] Production - Restriction News - Regarding the environmental protection production - restriction for the 9.3 parade, the Tangshan production - restriction notice requires independent steel - rolling enterprises to be ready for shutdown from August 16th to 25th according to weather conditions and shut down from the 25th to September 3rd. From August 26th - September 4th, sintering is expected to be restricted by 40% in Tangshan, and blast furnace reduction depends on air quality after the 25th. In the coking industry, it is rumored that Shandong coking enterprises will limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16th, expected to end in early September, but most coking enterprises are currently operating normally [2] Fundamental Situation - The policy of checking over - production in coal mines is advancing, and with the approaching parade in September, the safety supervision situation is severe, so short - term coal mine production is decreasing. The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly alleviated. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 476.5 million tons, a decrease of 224.5 million tons from the high in June; the clean coal inventory is 245.7 million tons, a decrease of 254.3 million tons from the high in June. On the demand side, the raw material replenishment of coking plants and steel mills has slowed down this week. The average daily hot metal output of steel mills last week was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.62 million tons compared with last year [2]