Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see currently [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. The supply remains high while demand changes little. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. With support from export policies and costs, the downside is limited. It's suggested to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. It's recommended to set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. - For polyethylene, prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.67%, to 448.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 9.00 yuan/ton, or 0.36%, to 2491.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.31%, to 3015.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed an inventory build - up of 1.04 million barrels to 207.48 million barrels, a gasoline inventory draw of 1.52 million barrels to 85.45 million barrels, a diesel inventory draw of 4.06 million barrels to 91.54 million barrels, and a total refined oil inventory draw of 5.58 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see currently [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 7, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 10 yuan to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan fell by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 8 yuan to 1630 yuan, with a basis of - 10. The 1 - 5 spread was + 2, at - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. Consider buying on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded oscillatingly. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area with a high risk of floods. The November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange expired and were about to be delivered out of the warehouse, leading to a bullish market expectation. As of November 20, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 16, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons, or 0.5% [12][14][15]. - **Strategy**: The current view is bullish. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partially establish positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 5 yuan to 4491 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 (+25) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 (-2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Factory inventory was 315,000 tons (-7,000), and social inventory was 1.033 million tons (+5,000) [16]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.95%, down 0.30%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 26,500 tons to 148,300 tons [20]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6762 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 25,900 tons to 503,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 500 tons to 50,500 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6317 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 26,200 tons to 593,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 213,400 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 65,800 tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 54 yuan to 6718 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 826 US dollars. The load in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The load in Asia was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first and middle of November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 24 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 7 was 2.227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 3873 yuan. The supply - side load was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The port inventory remained unchanged at 732,000 tons [34]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, a 2.13% increase, to 2691.00 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, a 2.32% increase, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.02 million barrels to 13.61 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 5.11 million barrels to 14.77 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to 23.03 million barrels, and the total refined oil inventory increased by 3.06 million barrels to 51.41 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia remained stable, the price in southern Shandong decreased by 35 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 27 yuan to 2241 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 31. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 62 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The domestic production has declined, and the traditional demand has weakened. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 5 yuan to 1635 yuan, and the basis was - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price was oscillating. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production increase, and there were positive expectations for demand. The short - position holders believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply increase might be less than expected. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous week and 2.81 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.49%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a decrease of 30000 tons, or 2.8%. The inventory in Qingdao was 427500 (- 19100) tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4716 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 116 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 288 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 765 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 74.4% (a decrease of 0.3%) and the ethylene method at 81.6% (an increase of 0.4%). The overall downstream operating rate was 49.9%, an increase of 1.3%. The in - factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+ 1000) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The basis was - 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 109.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 539.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.77%, a decrease of 0.16%. The operating rate of PS remained unchanged at 53.80%, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 0.54% to 61.98%, and the operating rate of ABS decreased by 0.30% to 72.80% [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons, and the inventory of traders was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 0.83%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, an increase of 0.16%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons, the inventory of traders was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons, and the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.37%, an increase of 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 328 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 6618 yuan, the PX CFR price decreased by 7 US dollars to 814 US dollars. The basis was 30 yuan (- 51), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (+ 18). The PX load in China was 85.9%, an increase of 1%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, an increase of 0.5%. A 540000 - ton plant of PTTG in Thailand was under maintenance, and the maintenance in Saudi Arabia was postponed. The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. In the first and middle of October, South Korea exported 256000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of August was 3918000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the previous month. The PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 4) [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 81 yuan (unchanged), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 17 was 2176000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 69 yuan to 174 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk increased by 4 yuan to 273 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 4069 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 16 yuan to 4167 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (unchanged). The supply - side operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.3%, a decrease of 3.7%, with the synthetic gas method at 82.2% (an increase of 0.8%) and the ethylene method at 68.2% (a decrease of 6.3%). There were few changes in synthetic gas plants. In the oil - chemical sector, Fulian and Shenghong were under maintenance, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Zhongke Refining and Chemical had a short - term shutdown and then resumed. Overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The forecast of imported arrivals was 198000 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on October 27 was 8600 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 628 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 561 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 261 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price remained unchanged at 765 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28].