Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

能源化工日报 2025-07-08 原油 能源化工组 2025/07/08 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.35 美元，跌幅 0.52%，报 67.18 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.34 美元，跌幅 0.49%，报 68.51 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.20 元，跌幅 0.24%， 报 502.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 1.99 百万桶至 87.97 百万桶，环比累库 2.32%；柴油商业库 存累库 2.14 百万桶至 100.82 百万桶，环比累库 2.17%；总成品油商业库存累库 4.14 百万桶 至 188.79 百万桶，环比累库 2.24%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处 ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-07 原油 能源化工组 行情方面：截至周五，WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.18 美元，跌幅 0.27%，报 67 美元；布伦特主 力原油期货收跌 0.34 美元，跌幅 0.49%，报 68.51 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.80 元，跌 幅 0.55%，报 503.5 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.21 百万桶至 9.15 百万桶，环比去 库 2.23%；柴油库存环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 14.35 百万桶，环比累库 4.00%；燃料油库存环 比去库 0.57 百万桶至 6.10 百万桶，环比去库 8.48%；石脑油环比去库 0.39 百万桶至 5.23 百 万桶，环比去库 6.89%；航空煤油环比去库 0.76 百万桶至 6.10 百万桶，环比去库 11.03%； 总体成品油环比去库 1.37 百万桶至 40.93 百万桶，环比去库 3.23%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 O ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/1 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/27 | | 2025/6/23 | 至 2025/6/27 | | | 焦炭 | 1421.50 | 焦炭 | | 2.67% | | | 铜 | 79920.00 | 铜 | | 2.47% | | ...

参考观点：需关注中美谈判进展及美联储政策落地节奏，防范外部扰动引发的波动，短期可 沿 5 日均线持有，中证 500、1000 指数技术面偏强，但需警惕量能持续性不足风险，结合期 权 VIX 波动率监测，若 PCR 指标回升至 1.2 附近，可考虑对冲保护。 原油 宏观与地缘：中美第二轮判"原则上达成框架协议"，市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价 格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑，但汽柴油、以及 燃料油库存持续增加。汽柴油裂解利润下滑，进一步拖拽原油需求。但同时俄乌地缘再度激 化，美伊谈判也再现波折，中东局势不稳，OPEC＋增产会议达成共识的可能性存疑，供给不 确定性大幅提高。供给端方面，OPEC+7 月同意增产 41.1 万桶/日，关注后续进一步 OPEC 会 议情况。 参考观点：WTI 主力短期关注 65 美元/桶附近能否持续突破。中长期看，若无重大地缘影响 供给，则原油上方高度有限。 黄金 宏观 股指 市场分析：全球市场呈现分化格局 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-10 原油 能源化工组 李 晶 首席分析师 从业资格号：F0283948 交易咨询号：Z0015498 0755-23375131 lijing@wkqh.cn 2025/06/10 原油早评： 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.61 美元，涨幅 0.94%，报 65.38 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.48 美元，涨幅 0.72%，报 67.13 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 8.20 元，涨幅 1.76%， 报 474.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 2.27 百万桶至 204.55 百万桶，环 比去库 1.10%；汽油商业库存去库 0.66 百万桶至 84.21 百万桶，环比去库 0.78%；柴油商 业库存累库 0.81 百万桶至 96.16 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.15 百 万桶至 180.37 百万桶，环比累库 0.09%。 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，虽 OPEC 已体现出明确的增产数据，但叠加页岩油的托 底效应，与美伊的谈判不确定性，当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 2025 ...

2025/06/09 原油早评： 能源化工组 行情方面：截至周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 1.52 美元，涨幅 2.40%，报 64.77 美元；布伦特 主力原油期货收涨 1.36 美元，涨幅 2.08%，报 66.65 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.40 元， 涨幅 0.52%，报 466.1 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.51 百万桶至 8.48 百万桶，环比 去库 5.66%；柴油库存环比累库 0.13 百万桶至 14.96 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库 存环比去库 0.47 百万桶至 6.83 百万桶，环比去库 6.44%；石脑油环比累库 0.28 百万桶 至 5.28 百万桶，环比累库 5.58%；航空煤油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 6.63 百万桶，环比 去库 0.71%；总体成品油环比去库 0.62 百万桶至 42.19 百万桶，环比去库 1.45%。 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 能源化工日报 2025-06-09 我们认为当前美 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-06 2025/06/06 原油早评： 能源化工组 李 晶 首席分析师 从业资格号：F0283948 交易咨询号：Z0015498 0755-23375131 lijing@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据，叠加页岩油的托 底效应，我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利，考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 甲醇 2025/06/06 甲醇早评： 6 月 5 日 09 合约跌 11 元/吨，报 2259 元/吨，现货涨 8 元/吨，基差 +51。供应端随着前期检修装置回归开工开始见底回升，处于同期高位，企业利润高位持续回 落，预计短期供应仍将维持高位。需求端港口 MTO 装置开工回到高位，传统需求本周开工整体 有所回升，需求小幅好转，港口整体累库速度偏慢，价格表现偏强。内地供增需弱，价格走低， 港口与内地价差持续扩大。整体来看，后续国内供应依旧较为充裕且宏观环境偏弱，甲醇或有 进一步回落可能，单边建议关注逢高空配置为主。跨品种方面关注 09 合约 PP-3MA 价差的逢低 做多的机会。 尿素 2025/06/06 尿素早评： ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-05 2025/06/05 原油早评： 能源化工组 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据，叠加页岩油的托 底效应，我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利，考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/05 甲醇早评：内地价格走弱叠加煤炭有所企稳，企业利润大幅回落，后续随着前期 检修装置的回归，国内供应将再度回到高位，6 月国内进口将显著走高，后续供应压力依旧较 大。需求端港口 MTO 装置重启，传统需求继续走弱为主，随着甲醇下跌，下游利润整体持续改 善，后续来看，随着甲醇高估值的修复，现货下跌幅度或有所放缓，但后续预计到来，预计整 体供需格局依旧偏弱，价格暂无上行驱动，单边建议关注逢高空配置为主。跨品种方面关注 09 合约 PP-3MA 价差的逢低做多的 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-04 2025/06/04 原油早评： 能源化工组 李 晶 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.30 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 63.34 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.49 美元，涨幅 0.75%，报 65.61 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 18.40 元，涨幅 4.14%， 报 462.5 元。 lijing@wkqh.cn 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存去库 0.33 百万桶至 6.67 百万桶，环 比去库 4.69%；柴油库存去库 0.61 百万桶至 1.06 百万桶，环比去库 36.81%；燃料油库存去库 1.92 百万桶至 8.68 百万桶，环比去库 18.14%；总成品油去库 2.87 百万桶至 16.41 百万桶， 环比去库 14.88%。 张正华 高级分析师 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据，叠加页岩油的托 底效应，我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利，考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 甲醇 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 2025/06/04 甲醇早评： ...