Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PP: ★★, indicating a strong bullish bias, with a view of "stronger" [2] - PVC: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PTA/PX: ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Methanol: ★, with a "cautiously bullish" view [6] - Urea: ★, with a "bullish" direction [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, with an "oscillation" view [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products, including L, PP, PVC, PTA/PX, MEG, methanol, urea, and caustic soda. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and provides investment outlooks and price ranges [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Product L - **Core View**: The social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [9][11] - **Main Logic**: Social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and ethylene is trading at a high level. New device maintenance in Lanzhou Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to 20%. More device maintenance is planned before early April, tightening the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][11] PP - **Core View**: Supported by cost, the market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 9000 - 9800 yuan/ton [12][15] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and supply continues to shrink. New device maintenance in Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to a historical high of 28%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and there is significant room for PDH profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the downstream transmission progress [2][15] PVC - **Core View**: The inventory reduction slope has slowed down, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton [16][19] - **Main Logic**: The ethylene price is high, and the FOB price in Tianjin has decreased. Inventory reduction is slow. The start - up of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC plants is diverging. The high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [2][19] PTA - **Core View**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost support, it is recommended to buy on dips. The price range is expected to be between 6620 - 7020 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical conflict shows no sign of significant easing. The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has seen some recovery in domestic devices, while the demand side has a slight decline in polyester load. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level. The cost side is affected by the geopolitical conflict [20][21] MEG - **Core View**: With reduced imports and cost support, the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 5280 - 5580 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous load reduction of domestic and overseas devices. The inventory at ports is at a low level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The demand side has a slight decline in polyester load [22][23] Methanol - **Core View**: Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the fundamentals are improving. The market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 3250 - 3450 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of the methanol main contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has domestic load - increase and overseas load - reduction. The demand side has weak - stable downstream demand, and the traditional demand is seasonally warming up. The port inventory is decreasing rapidly [26] Urea - **Core View**: Although the fundamentals are weak, there is an export expectation, and the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 1880 - 1920 yuan/ton [27][29] - **Main Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea is over 3000 yuan/ton, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has a slight decline in production but is still at a high level. The demand side is recovering, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The cost side provides support [27][28][29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The start - up increase has led to a slight increase in factory inventory, and the market is oscillating. The price range is expected to be between 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton [30][31] - **Main Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the basis has strengthened. High inventory restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week and is expected to continue to increase this week. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance progress and changes in export orders [2][31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Neutral [2] - PP: Neutral [2] - PVC: Neutral [2] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish [6] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] Core Views - The supply contraction of L is intensifying, and the fundamental supply - demand pattern is gradually tightening. The PP supply contraction continues, and the cost side provides strong support. The PVC high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space. The PX/PTA has improved fundamentals and short - term shock - strong trend. The ethylene glycol's import pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals improve. The methanol's port inventory is accelerating de - stocking, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The urea's fundamentals are relatively loose, but there is support on the cost side. The caustic soda's low - concentration alkali has a supplementary increase, and the basis strengthens [2][5][6][7]. Summary by Variety L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8715 yuan/ton, down 2.3% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 7.7%. The L05 basis was - 235 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 147 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply contraction intensifies, with new device overhauls. The ethylene price remains high. The short - term geopolitical conflict persists, and the supply - demand pattern is tightening [10]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8975 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 10.5%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 383 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory is at a low level in the same period. Propane prices continue to rise, and PDH profits hit a new low. The supply contraction continues, and the cost side provides strong support [13]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5703 yuan/ton, down 2.6% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 9.8%. The V05 basis was - 203 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 98 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices continue to rise, and the cost support improves. The ethylene - calcium carbide开工 is differentiated, and high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space [17]. PX/PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 280.3 dollars/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the valuation is high. The supply side has domestic device load reduction, and the downstream demand is recovering but weakly. The PX fundamentals are improving, and it shows a short - term shock - strong trend [19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol start - up load was 66.45% as of March 19 [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is high, and the basis weakens. Both domestic and overseas devices continue to reduce loads. The import volume is expected to shrink in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease [23]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and monthly spread weaken [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load is high, and the overseas load is low. The import volume is expected to shrink in March and April, and the port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [27]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan from the previous day. The urea comprehensive profit was 188.12 yuan/ton [29][31]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply is at a high level, the demand is recovering, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing [30][31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2502 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The SH05 basis was - 227 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Basic Logic**: The low - concentration alkali has a supplementary increase, and the basis strengthens. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increases the expectation of load reduction of ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated devices at home and abroad [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Callback [1] - PP: Callback [1] - PVC: Callback [1] - PX/PTA: Callback [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Callback [2] - Methanol: Callback [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the geopolitical premium in the market is gradually being digested. The supply of some products is shrinking, and the cost support is strong. The demand side of some products is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is weak. Overall, the market is in a state of shock and adjustment [1][2][3] Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: Callback. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the supply contraction intensifies. The ethylene market is strongly volatile. With the increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, attention should be paid to the sustainability of supply reduction. Geopolitical conflicts may gradually ease, and long positions should be stopped for profit [1][7] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of L01, L05, and L09 have all declined, with the L05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 15.6%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.0%. The trading volume has increased by 28.0%. The L05 basis is -128 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is 182 yuan/ton [5][6] PP - **Core View**: Callback. The PDH profit has reached a new low, and the supply contraction continues. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side still strongly supports PP. The domestic supply and demand pattern is improving, but recent capital has been continuously reducing positions, and long positions should be stopped for profit at high prices [1][10] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 have all declined, with the PP05 closing price dropping by 6.9%. The main contract position has decreased by 14.9%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.1%. The trading volume has increased by 34.8%. The PP05 basis is -469 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is 499 yuan/ton [8][9] PVC - **Core View**: Callback. In the short term, it mainly follows the oil price fluctuations. The basis has strengthened passively, and the cost support has improved due to the significant increase in calcium carbide prices. The shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC devices, and some domestic ethylene-based devices have started to reduce their loads [1][14] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of V01, V05, and V09 have all declined, with the V05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 6.3%, and the weighted position has decreased by 3.1%. The trading volume has decreased by 1.6%. The V05 basis is -33 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is -87 yuan/ton [12][13] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game has reached a critical node, and some long funds have left the market to wait and see. The TA valuation is relatively high, and the basis has strengthened. The supply side has seen domestic device load reduction, and the downstream polyester start-up load has increased, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened month-on-month. The PX fundamentals have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][16] - **Market Data**: The TA05, TA09, and TA01 closing prices have all increased. The PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton, and the PTA factory processing fee is 332.8 yuan/ton. The PTA social inventory has decreased slightly [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and both domestic and overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand is relatively good but weaker than the same period last year [2][20] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start-up load is 66.45%, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period. The polyester comprehensive load has continued to increase, but the production and sales are average, and the weaving orders have declined month-on-month [20] Methanol - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating to be depleted [2][24] - **Market Data**: The methanol main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and spread have weakened. The spot prices in the European and American methanol markets are relatively strong [24] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. The domestic and foreign price spreads of urea are large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has seen a decline in urea start-up but remains at a high level in the same period. The demand side has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The overall fundamentals are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3][27] - **Market Data**: The UR05, UR09, and UR01 closing prices have all declined. The urea comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis is 29 yuan/ton [26] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Oscillation. The export orders have improved, and the price of high-concentration caustic soda has increased significantly. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified the expectation of load reduction of ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. The profit of Shandong ECU has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume [1][32] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of SH01, SH03, SH05, and SH09 have all declined. The SH05 basis is -288 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread is -48 yuan/ton [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★★, Bullish [1] - PP: ★★, Bullish [1] - PVC: ★★, Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: ★, Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★, Bullish [5] - Methanol: ★★, Bullish [6] - Urea: ★, Cautiously Bullish [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, Sideways [1] Core Views - Supply contraction and cost support drive the prices of L, PP, PVC, and ethylene glycol to remain bullish. The prices of PX/PTA and methanol are expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved fundamentals. Urea prices are cautiously bullish due to the large domestic and foreign price difference and the supply - demand situation. Caustic soda prices are expected to move sideways [1][4][5][6]. Summaries by Variety L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply contraction intensifies, and the cost - end ethylene remains strong. New domestic plant overhauls increase the parking ratio to 15%, and the planned overhaul volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts raise the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][11] - **Market Data**: L05 closing price is 8818 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 728 yuan/ton, down 26.4% [9] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: PDH profit continues to compress, and supply has room for contraction. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost - end strongly supports PP. The current parking ratio is at a high of 21%, the supply - demand pattern is improving, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14] - **Market Data**: PP05 closing price is 9019 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 259 yuan/ton, up 14.5% [12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, and the reduction of ethylene - based production drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate the expectation of load reduction in global ethylene - based PVC plants. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce loads. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18] - **Market Data**: V05 closing price is 5875 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 28.1% [16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the valuation is relatively high. The supply side sees domestic plant load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The fundamentals of upstream PX continue to improve, and the market is expected to remain bullish in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [4][20] - **Market Data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Bullish [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost increases and domestic and foreign plant load reduction. The import reduction expectation is expected to be fulfilled, and the port pressure is expected to ease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [5][24] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start - up load is 66.45% (down 0.32pct from the previous period) [24] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas plant load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [6][28] - **Market Data**: The main methanol contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: The domestic and foreign price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is restricted by policies [6][31] - **Market Data**: Urea production is 21.04 tons per day, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Sideways [1] - **Main Logic**: The overhaul intensity increases, and the factory inventory declines from a high level. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of load reduction in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated plants at home and abroad. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [1][36] - **Market Data**: SH05 closing price is 2544 yuan/ton, up 3.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 391 yuan/ton, down 22.9% [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Energy and chemical products' prices and market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, production conditions, and demand levels [3][5][8][11][14][17][18][21][24][26][29][32][35] - Different trading strategies are recommended for various products according to their respective market situations 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had different degrees of increase [2] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the price difference between different oil types and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: There were different price changes in regional spot markets, and the main futures contract rose 32.00 yuan/ton to 2805 yuan/ton, with MTO profit changing by 63 yuan [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Since methanol already includes current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high levels [5] Urea - **Market Information**: There were different price changes in regional spot markets, and the main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1889 yuan/ton, with an overall basis of - 29 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Expect a high - level start in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, domestic contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended to short at high levels. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand marginal support [8] Rubber - **Market Information**: The market is trading on the expectation and realization of refinery shutdowns, with downstream supply of ethylene and aromatics decreasing. There are different views on the rise and fall of natural rubber [11] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, open or hold a new position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5724 yuan. The spot price and relevant cost prices changed, and the overall start - up rate and demand - side start - up rate also had corresponding changes [16] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has rebounded to a high level. With the expectation of ethylene - based passive production cuts and seasonal maintenance, and considering factors such as export and cost, the short - term trend is mainly upward, but risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [17][18] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets rose, with changes in basis and other indicators. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The demand - side start - up rate generally increased [20] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has slightly eased. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the valuation upward repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [21] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, while the spot price fell. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and there were changes in inventory. The downstream average start - up rate increased [23] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down. The PE valuation still has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high levels [24] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, while the spot price fell. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and there were changes in inventory. The downstream average start - up rate increased [25] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The cost - side supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity release plan in the first half of 2026. The downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally. Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from the cost side to production capacity mismatch [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 200 yuan to 10018 yuan. The PX load decreased, and multiple devices had production cuts. The PTA load also decreased, and there were changes in imports and inventory [28] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 64 yuan to 6934 yuan. The PTA load decreased, and the downstream load increased. There was inventory accumulation, and the processing fee increased [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 76 yuan to 4729 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and multiple domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or production cuts. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory increased [34] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The overseas device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic devices are entering the maintenance season. The import is expected to decrease significantly in March, and the port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking. However, risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout is recommended. Specific strategies include a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully priced in the current geopolitical premium, and with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, there is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle. The oil - chemical profit has fallen to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 70.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9.61%, at 662.00 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.87%, at 4318.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.33%, at 5050.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a mid - term layout strategy, including a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 80 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 110 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 25 yuan/ton. The main contract of methanol futures changed by 59.00 yuan/ton, at 2658 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 50 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Since methanol has fully priced in the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong and Hubei changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 12 yuan/ton. The main contract of urea futures changed by 16 yuan/ton, at 1872 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a sharp drop in crude oil, which in turn drove down the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views. The long side of natural rubber (RU) is optimistic due to factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal expectations, and improved demand in China. The short side is pessimistic due to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of March 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 342 yuan, at 5571 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5270 (+120) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (-222) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 29 (+60) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (+50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 970 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 82.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 18.7%. The in - plant inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 7755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1905 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 196.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 327.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 208.8 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and second consecutive contracts of EB was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 8154 yuan/ton, an increase of 387 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The basis was - 329 yuan/ton, a weakening of 212 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 348 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 8197 yuan/ton, an increase of 377 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a weakening of 177 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 630 yuan, at 9532 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 66 US dollars, at 1217 US dollars. The basis was 135 yuan (-114), and the 5 - 7 spread was 412 yuan (+88). The domestic PX load was 90.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the Asian load was 83.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. A 2.5 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and the Daxie plant was shut down. Overseas, a 770,000 - ton PX plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 157,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The PXN was 310 US dollars (-45), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (+18), and the naphtha cracking spread was 172 US dollars (-162) [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 460 yuan, at 6660 yuan. The East China spot price rose 140 yuan, at 6320 yuan. The basis was - 14 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan (+66). The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 2.623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 198 yuan, to - 22 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 47 yuan, to 407 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 272 yuan, at 4577 yuan. The East China spot price fell 8 yuan, at 4400 yuan. The basis was - 23 yuan (-25), and the 5 - 9 spread was 143 yuan (+137). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; among them, the syngas - based load was 83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene - based load was 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. Many domestic and overseas plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The import arrival forecast was 78,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on March 10 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1940 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1212 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 661 yuan. The

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA: Crude oil is expected to strengthen significantly due to geopolitical impacts. Asian PX market speculative sentiment has rebounded, but physical supply remains stable. Although some PTA devices are scheduled for maintenance in March, PX physical supply is sufficient. Market demand is calm, downstream replenishment is not active, and polyester operating load is lower than expected. However, from March to May, the market anticipates a tightening of PX supply due to refinery maintenance and planned closures in South Korea. Middle - East geopolitical tensions may bring short - term energy price volatility risks [2] - Ethylene glycol: The Middle - East situation is tense, and the market is chaotic. The production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and naphtha demand remains weak. The spread between ethylene and naphtha has shrunk. Some ethylene producers in South Korea maintained their cracking unit operating rates in February. A large - scale ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu switched a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene, and the ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Iranian situation on prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 572.3 yuan/barrel on March 3, 2026, to 641.1 yuan/barrel on March 4, 2026, with a change of 68.80 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1449.0 yuan/ton to 1035.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3484 to 1.2222; PTA主力期价 increased from 5608 yuan/ton to 5694 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 5525 yuan/ton to 5605 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 increased from 230.1 yuan/ton to 240.6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 293.1 yuan/ton to 334.6 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from (53) to (46); PTA仓单数量 increased from 124720 to 125948 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4025 yuan/ton to 4078 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (253.17) yuan/ton to (252.36) yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 3894 yuan/ton to 4046 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from - 65 to - 60 [2] - **PX**: CFR中国PX increased from 1019 to 1027; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 304 to 290 [2] - **Polyester products**: POY150D/48F increased from 7365 to 7425; POY现金流 decreased from 87 to 27; FDY150D/96F increased from 7530 to 7625; FDY现金流 decreased from (248) to (273); DTY150D/48F increased from 8445 to 8535; DTY现金流 decreased from (33) to (63); 长丝产销 decreased from 58% to 48%; 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 7005 to 7070; 涤短现金流 decreased from 77 to 22; 短纤产销 decreased from 96% to 59%; 半光切片 increased from 6225 to 6270; 切片现金流 decreased from (153) to (228); 切片产销 decreased from 88% to 31% [2] 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.08% [2] - PTA开工率 increased from 77.95% to 79.81% [2] - MEG开工率 remained at 59.01% [2] - 聚酯负荷 increased from 79.46% to 80.39% [2] 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was shut down for maintenance around February 10, has returned to normal operation [2] - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was operating at 50% capacity, has returned to normal operation [2] - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China, which was under maintenance in mid - January, has returned to normal operation [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rise in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions has pushed up the PTA market, and downstream polyester factories have actively raised prices. The average sales volume of polyester filament factories as of 3:00 pm is around 112.22%. [3] - The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has rebounded, but the physical supply is stable. Although some PTA device loads are expected to be shut down for maintenance in March to May, the physical supply of PX is sufficient. [3] - The demand side remains calm, downstream replenishment is not active, and the polyester's operating load is lower than expected. [3] - The Middle East geopolitical tensions may bring short - term energy price volatility risks. [3] - The ethylene - naphtha spread has shrunk, and the ethylene production situation in some regions is changing. The price of ethylene glycol is waiting at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Iranian situation on prices. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 488.4 yuan/barrel on February 27, 2026, to 527.8 yuan/barrel on March 2, 2026, an increase of 39.4 yuan/barrel. [3] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1700.7 yuan/ton to 1716.4 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4792 to 1.4475; PTA's main futures price rose from 5250 yuan/ton to 5552 yuan/ton; the spot price rose from 5155 yuan/ton to 5375 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 289.0 yuan/ton to 153.2 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 379.0 yuan/ton to 330.2 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 60 to - 55; the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 126604 to 125134. [3] - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 932 to 999; the PX - naphtha spread increased from 295 to 362. [3] - **MEG**: MEG's main futures price rose from 3703 yuan/ton to 3925 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 218.67 yuan/ton to - 188.67 yuan/ton; MEG's domestic price rose from 3621 to 3753; the main basis increased from - 95 to - 92. [3] - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and semi - bright chips all increased, while the cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and chips all decreased. The sales volume of long - filament decreased from 120% to 112%, and the sales volume of short - fiber increased from 85% to 89%. The sales volume of chips decreased from 274% to 105%. [3] Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 89.21%; PTA operating rate increased from 76.40% to 81.27%; MEG operating rate remained at 60.82%; polyester load increased from 77.21% to 78.23%. [3] Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal operation. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 50% capacity has returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was shut down for maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - production of Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea should be mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [4]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [7]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are approaching, so it is recommended to short [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term according to the stronger market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export tax rebate cancellation has led to short - term rush exports, which is the only short - term support [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the futures market has been reduced. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [23]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the downstream production start - up rate has a stronger seasonal rebound than in previous years. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls. In March, as PX enters the overhaul season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and there is still room for valuation to rise in the medium term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil and go long on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. However, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and de - stocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 43.50 yuan/barrel, a rise of 8.98%, at 527.80 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 263.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.00%, at 3186.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 310.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.99%, at 3757.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.12 million barrels to 11.02 million barrels, a 1.07% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.66 million barrels to 16.64 million barrels, a 4.15% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 5.46 million barrels, a 21.96% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 5.55 million barrels, a 4.93% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.59 million barrels, a 12.55% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory decreased by 1.99 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 4.21% decrease [2][3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - production of Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea should be mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Jiangsu changed by 126 yuan/ton, Lunan by 60 yuan/ton, Henan by 55 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 176.00 yuan/ton, at 2365 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 171 yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [7]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 30 yuan/ton, at 1817 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are approaching, so it is recommended to short [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, crude oil has a driving force to continue rising, and butadiene rubber also has a driving force to follow the rise. Rubber RU and NR are expected to fluctuate strongly. The bulls believe that the current situation of rubber forests in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production increase, the seasonality of rubber usually turns up in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The bears believe that the macro - expectation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, 18.78 percentage points higher than last week and 36.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, 22.04 percentage points higher than last week and 43.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 tons, a 7 - ton increase, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the festival. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 15950 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2055 (+10) dollars, STR20 mixed was 2055 (+10) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+300) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12500 - 12600 (+300) yuan [12][13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the stronger market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 76 yuan, at 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4630 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 238 (- 46) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 132 (+6) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2200 (- 50) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (+5) dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 636 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 50.4 tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 tons (+1) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export tax rebate cancellation has led to short - term rush exports, which is the only short - term support [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: On the fundamental side, the cost - side East China pure benzene was 6265 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan/ton increase; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 6551 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan/ton increase; the pure benzene basis was - 286 yuan/ton, a 381 - yuan/ton narrowing; on the spot - futures side, the styrene spot was 8000 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase; the styrene active contract closing price was 7966 yuan/ton, a 442 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, a 92 - yuan/ton weakening; the BZN spread was 140.37 yuan/ton, a 11.13 - yuan/ton decrease; the EB non - integrated device profit was 20.15 yuan/ton, a 216.95 - yuan/ton increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton narrowing; the upstream operating rate was 74.24%, a 3.16% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 tons, a 1.75 - ton inventory increase; the demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene operating rate is oscillating at a high level. The styrene port inventory is continuously increasing; the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is oscillating and rising. The pure benzene port inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the styrene port inventory is continuously decreasing. Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired. Wait for it to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the main contract closing price was 6991 yuan/ton, a 394 - yuan/ton increase, the spot price was 6800 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan/ton increase, the basis was - 191 yuan/ton, a 144 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, a 0.76% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 57.97 tons, a 23.60 - ton inventory increase, and the trader inventory was 4.69 tons, a 2.32 - ton inventory increase. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, a 1.58% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton narrowing [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the futures market. The supply pressure has eased in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. It is a seasonal small peak season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the main contract closing price was 6998 yuan/ton, a 387 - yuan/ton increase, the spot price was 6815 yuan/ton, a 185 - yuan/ton increase, the basis was - 183 yuan/ton, a 202 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, a 0.26% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 73.99 tons, a 34.87 - ton inventory increase, the trader inventory was 24.97 tons, a 7.3 - ton inventory increase, and the port inventory was 8.86 tons, a 1.57 - ton inventory increase. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton widening. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton narrowing [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report indicates a moderate production increase in the second quarter, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has eased; on the demand side, the downstream operating rate has a stronger seasonal rebound than in previous years. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 442 yuan, at 7836 yuan, the PX CFR rose 67 dollars, at 999 dollars. Converted according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was 136 yuan (+94), and the 5 - 7 spread was 34 yuan (+64). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a 0.4% increase; the Asian load was 84.9%, a 1.2% increase. In terms of equipment, a 2.5 - million - ton device of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, the maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and an overseas device in Kuwait was restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 1.8% increase. In terms of equipment, one set of Yisheng New Materials was at 50% load and one set was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 41.5 tons of PX to China in February, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 4.65 million tons, a 190,000 - ton inventory increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 295 dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 dollars (- 8), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 dollars (- 14) [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls. In March, as PX enters the overhaul season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. At the same time, unexpected events in the Middle East may lead to a reduction in the load of domestic refineries. The current valuation