风险提示：收费标准降低风险；不可抗力；竞争性线位导致车流转移。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：闫海/严天鹏/范晨轩 事件：宁沪高速发布2025 年中报，公司实现营业收入94.06 亿元，同比下降5.6%；剔除建造收入影响 后，营收同比下降0.99%，主业经营基本稳定。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为24.24 亿元，同比下降 11.8%，主要受联营企业投资收益减少及江苏银行分红周期调整影响。业绩略低于预期。 25 年H1 通行费收入稳中有增，江苏银行分红周期调整影响投资收益。25 年H1，公司共实现通行费收 入约人民币46 亿元，同比增长约1.65%，主要路段受改扩建影响，增速呈现分化状态。江苏银行公司分 红周期调整，于2024 年11 月实施2024 年度中期分红，25H1江苏银行分红为扣除中期分红后的年度分 红，约人民币1.68 亿元，24 年同期为全口径年度分红，约人民币3.68 亿元，同比下降54.38%。 核心路产改扩建持续推进，"低空+交通"赋能安全智慧管养新生态。根据公司路产改扩建计划，宁扬长 江大桥北接线项目预计将于25 年底前全线开通。此外，锡宜高速南段改扩建也将于2026 年6 月通车， 届时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ninghu Expressway [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 9.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. Excluding construction revenue impacts, revenue decreased by 0.99%, indicating stable core operations [8] - The decline in net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.8%, amounting to 2.424 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced investment income from joint ventures and adjustments in the dividend cycle of Jiangsu Bank [8] - Toll revenue showed a slight increase, with approximately 4.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1.65%. The growth rate varied across major routes due to expansion impacts [8] - The company is advancing its core asset expansion projects, with significant improvements expected in regional traffic flow upon completion of key projects by the end of 2025 and mid-2026 [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025E-2027E at 5.447 billion yuan, 5.790 billion yuan, and 6.049 billion yuan, corresponding to PE multiples of 13, 12, and 11 respectively [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025E are 23.935 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2% [7] - The expected net profit for 2025E is 5.447 billion yuan, with a projected EPS of 1.08 yuan per share [7] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 27.1% for 2025E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% [7]