Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, awaiting fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the economy, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro - policies. China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, but manufacturing and service PMIs showed signs of slowdown. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - hedging policies [1] - The impact of Trump's tariff policies on market sentiment is subsiding, and the focus should shift to its impact on the economy. Tariff negotiations are progressing, and macro fluctuations are expected to moderate [2] - For commodities, short - term focus is on the transmission of fundamentals, and long - term focus is on stagflation configuration. Different commodities have different outlooks based on various factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical events [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The April Politburo meeting recognized the positive economic trend this year and the increasing external shocks. It called for more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, but the April official manufacturing PMI was 49, lower than expected, and the service PMI also declined [1] - Trump's tariff policies are still volatile. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto parts on May 3, and there are ongoing tariff negotiations with various countries. The impact on market sentiment is waning, and macro fluctuations are expected to be more moderate in the near term [2] Commodity Analysis - Based on the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases on commodities first affects demand and then inflation. Industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals are vulnerable to the emotional impact of US stock market adjustments [3] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement and the accident at the Peruvian Antamina copper mine may support copper prices. For agricultural products, the focus is on the change in the soybean - palm oil price spread. In the energy sector, the IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [4] To - do List - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 7 to introduce a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations [1] - The Ukrainian parliament will hold a special meeting on May 8 to vote on the mineral resource agreement with the US [3]