FICC日报 | 2025-06-11 中美经贸磋商持续进行，关注美国5月CPI数据 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月CPI同比降0.1%，环比由涨转降，PPI同比降幅扩大至3.3%。 中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，进口下降3.4%。从集装箱的船运数据来 看，5月上旬出口有所改善，但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色一般的背景下，前期透支的需求会重新 回到偏弱的去库周期中。国家发改委副秘书长表示，预计今年支持社会事业的中央预算内投资规模将比"十三五" 末提高30%以上。6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点 深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》， 推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一 步加码的可能。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈， ...

Report Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - Market confidence has improved after the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States on June 5th. Before July, the macro - situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - Trump's tariff policies are inconsistent. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump later announced to raise the steel import tariff. The Trump administration has issued an emergency letter, asking countries to submit the best trade negotiation plan before June 4th [2] - There are potential liquidity risks in the US. Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating. The US debt is expected to rise, and the "sell US" trade is heating up. In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered, and short - term energy is in a game around the fact of production increase [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's export was slightly better than expected, with re - export being a significant support. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both increased, with land transfer fees supporting the revenue. Consumption was under pressure. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1, but corporate profit was under pressure due to rising costs and falling selling prices. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the leaders of the two countries had a phone call, improving market confidence [1] Tariff Policies - On May 28th, the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped. On May 30th, Trump announced to raise the steel import tariff from 25% to 50%, effective on June 4th. The Trump administration has asked countries to submit trade negotiation plans before June 4th, or face high - penalty measures. Different countries have different responses to US tariffs [2] Risk and Market Outlook - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt is expected to rise, leading to an increase in the "sell US" trade. The eurozone's May composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 5th. The US May Markit PMI improved to some extent, but the ADP employment number in May was far lower than expected. The US House of Representatives' tax clause in the "Big Beautiful Act" may escalate the trade war into a capital war [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. The price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. In the energy market, OPEC decided to increase production, but the actual production has not increased as of early June. Gold should be watched for low - level opportunities [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Important News - On June 5th, the European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2%, the main refinancing rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.4%. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US new restrictions on China, opposing the US 301 tariffs. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1. Trump has restricted the entry of citizens from some countries and the visas of foreign students at Harvard University [6]

评级下调叠加财政扩张预期，长端美债利率持续走高，关注潜在的流动性风险。近期穆迪下调美国主权评级至Aa1， 三大评级机构对美债评级均低于3A，加上国会推进大规模减税与扩张性财政法案，美国债务预期持续抬升，引发"卖 美国"交易升温。5月15日美联储主席表示，美联储即将对利率制定框架进行调整，虽然不太可能影响当前的政策 决策，但承认了"长期低利率"时代可能已经结束，年内首次降息预期延后至9月。5月23日特朗普称美欧贸易磋商 "毫 无进展"，威胁自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%关税；5月25日特朗普表示他已同意将欧盟关税截至期限延至7月9日。冯 德莱恩表示，欧洲已准备好迅速果断地推进谈判。美国总统特朗普表示，同意财政部长贝森特最近的评论，即美 国不需要将纺织制造业带回境内。他补充说，希望在美国制造"大物件"，并提到芯片、计算机和人工智能。5月27 日，白宫经济委员会主任Hassett表示，部分国家的关税可能降至10%或更低。接近完成的包括与印度之间的贸易协 议。日本内阁批准3880亿日元预备费应对美关税措施，日美第四轮关税谈判拟于30日举行。日本财务省27日公布 的数据显示，2024年末日本海外净资产达到创纪录的533. ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and long - term attention is on stagflation allocation. The market sentiment has warmed up due to the substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, and subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the negotiations and the sensitive commodities. Global trade policy games also need attention, and there are impacts on trade and inflation expectations [2][3][5] Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 9 - 12, Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism, which significantly warmed up the market sentiment [2] - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation progress of Sino - US negotiations and commodities sensitive to this event, such as crude oil, container shipping index, and gold [2] Global Trade Policy Game - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at an additional 25% tariff rate [3] - This "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea will have an obvious impact on global trade, and the key lies in the negotiation process with other countries. The US - Japan and US - South Korea tariff negotiations may take a long time, and Japan requires the cancellation of automobile tariffs and adheres to the zero - tariff demand [3] - The long - term inflation expectation has been slightly revised downwards. If the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted down, the pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US FOMC Meeting - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate unchanged. The economic outlook uncertainty "further" increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades the decline in demand and then trades the increase in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals need to be vigilant against the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market [5] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru has supported copper prices. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs, and China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined. OPEC + confirmed on May 3 that it will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the current production increase rhythm in July, with a shift in strategy from production restriction to market share competition. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [5] - Due to the high uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the continuous game of global trade policies, the risk of a gold price correction needs to be vigilant [5] Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks - The joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks pointed out that the US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the implementation of 24% tariffs within the initial 90 days and retaining the remaining 10% tariffs. China will make corresponding modifications to the tariffs on US goods, and both sides will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [8] - The two sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations, and consultations can be held in China, the US, or a third country agreed by both sides [8] Japan's Stance on US Tariff Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated his stance in the negotiations with the US, demanding the cancellation of all additional tariffs, especially those on automobiles, and insisting on the zero - tariff demand [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the economy, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro - policies. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, but the April official manufacturing PMI declined, indicating the impact of tariff policies. A package of financial policies were introduced on May 7 to boost the economy [1] - The impact of tariff events on sentiment has subsided, and attention should be paid to their impact on the economy. Tariff negotiations are progressing, which may lead to more moderate macro - fluctuations. Before July, macro - economic activities are expected to focus on factual verification [1] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Be wary of the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products and the price fluctuations of agricultural products. Crude oil supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The April Politburo meeting judged the current economy, advocated more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and proposed measures such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups and promoting urban renewal. China's Q1 GDP maintained a stable and upward trend, but the April official manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with new orders and production in the contraction range [1] - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies, including the central bank's ten monetary policy measures, the financial regulatory administration's eight incremental policies, and the CSRC's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market [1] - The Trump tariff policy is still volatile. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto parts on May 3, and considered a 100% tariff on foreign - made movies. Tariff negotiations between the US and other countries are in progress, and the EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [1] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged, indicating increased economic uncertainty. The yield of Japanese 30 - year treasury bonds soared on May 7. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and traders reduced their bets on further interest rate cuts [1] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - addition events first affected demand and then inflation. Be cautious about the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals [2] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement was signed on April 30 and approved by the Ukrainian parliament on May 8. An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supported copper prices. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and pay attention to the change in the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] - The IEA monthly report lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand. OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the production - increase rhythm in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - Due to the high uncertainty of the Trump tariff policy, be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Important News - Trump announced a comprehensive agreement with the UK, and other agreements are in negotiation. The EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [5] - The Bank of England's rate - cut decision had different views among its members, and it proposed two scenarios for decision - making [5] - The Ukrainian parliament approved the US - Ukraine mineral agreement on May 8, with some concerns about the details of the agreement [5]

FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 关注周三国务院新闻发布会 市场分析 4月政治局会议定调积极。4月25日，我国召开政治局会议，"今年经济呈现向好态势""外部冲击影响加大"定调当下 经济判断，对于宏观政策，会议表示"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，适时降准降息"，此外"提高中低收入群体收入"、"推进城市更新和城中村、危旧房改造"等措词也 值得关注。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，延续去年以来持续稳中向好、稳中回升的态势。中国4月官方制造业PMI 49，预期49.7，前值 50.5。新订单和生产分项双双回落至收缩区间，新出口订单大幅回落，说明关税政策对基本 面的冲击已逐步显现。4月财新中国服务业PMI录得50.7，低于3月1.2个百分点，在扩张区间降至七个月来最低；综 合PMI产出指数下滑0.7个百分点至51.1，显示国内企业生产经营活动扩张步伐放缓。当下尤其可关注国内宏观对冲 政策对于经济的支持。国务院新闻办公室将于5月7日上午9时举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行、国家金融监督管 理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 ...