1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for bottom - up allocation [5] 2. Core Views - The report focuses on multiple aspects including China - US economic and trade negotiations, US policies, and market trends. It suggests paying attention to economic fact verification in the short - term, potential fiscal stimulus in China, and risks in the US fiscal and debt situation. It also provides investment strategies for different asset classes [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected but with obvious re - export support, while investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both increased, and consumption was under pressure. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. There were improvements in early May exports but a weakening in late May. The government may increase fiscal support. China - US economic and trade negotiations have made progress, improving market confidence [1] US Policy Changes - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff - imposing executive order was unconstitutional. However, Trump later announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. Different economies are accelerating trade negotiations with the US. The US May non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations [2] Potential Risks - The US House - passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" may increase the federal budget deficit by $2.42 trillion in the next decade, bringing risks such as US Treasury supply, sovereign credit, and political risks. The US may exhaust debt - ceiling - avoiding measures in mid - August. Modifying Medicaid and Medicare may cause a tug - of - war between different political factions [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, follow - up attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals, and long - term attention should be on stagflation allocation. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. Agricultural products are more likely to have price increases due to tariffs. The EU may lower the price cap on Russian oil. In the short - term, the energy market is centered around production increase, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. Gold is recommended to focus on low - level opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for bottom - up allocation [5] Important News - On June 10, it was announced that this year's central budget investment in social undertakings is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan". China - US economic and trade negotiation mechanism's first meeting continued on June 10. The US Senate may modify a $3 - trillion economic plan. The US may exhaust debt - ceiling - avoiding measures between mid - August and end - September. South Korea plans to allow local companies to issue stablecoins. Traders expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates twice this year. The anti - dumping investigation on EU pork and by - products is extended to December 16, 2025. The EU may lower the Russian oil price cap to $45 per barrel [7]

Report Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - Market confidence has improved after the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States on June 5th. Before July, the macro - situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - Trump's tariff policies are inconsistent. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump later announced to raise the steel import tariff. The Trump administration has issued an emergency letter, asking countries to submit the best trade negotiation plan before June 4th [2] - There are potential liquidity risks in the US. Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating. The US debt is expected to rise, and the "sell US" trade is heating up. In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered, and short - term energy is in a game around the fact of production increase [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's export was slightly better than expected, with re - export being a significant support. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both increased, with land transfer fees supporting the revenue. Consumption was under pressure. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1, but corporate profit was under pressure due to rising costs and falling selling prices. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the leaders of the two countries had a phone call, improving market confidence [1] Tariff Policies - On May 28th, the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped. On May 30th, Trump announced to raise the steel import tariff from 25% to 50%, effective on June 4th. The Trump administration has asked countries to submit trade negotiation plans before June 4th, or face high - penalty measures. Different countries have different responses to US tariffs [2] Risk and Market Outlook - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt is expected to rise, leading to an increase in the "sell US" trade. The eurozone's May composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 5th. The US May Markit PMI improved to some extent, but the ADP employment number in May was far lower than expected. The US House of Representatives' tax clause in the "Big Beautiful Act" may escalate the trade war into a capital war [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. The price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. In the energy market, OPEC decided to increase production, but the actual production has not increased as of early June. Gold should be watched for low - level opportunities [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Important News - On June 5th, the European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2%, the main refinancing rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.4%. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US new restrictions on China, opposing the US 301 tariffs. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1. Trump has restricted the entry of citizens from some countries and the visas of foreign students at Harvard University [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, China's exports are supported by re - exports and the easing of Sino - US tariffs, but investment data in April weakened, especially in the real estate sector, and consumption was slightly pressured. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable in the future [2] - The long - term US Treasury yield continues to rise due to rating downgrades and fiscal expansion expectations, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The market is focusing on the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction on Wednesday [3] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up, and stagflation allocation in the long term. Be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products, and the price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. The medium - term supply of energy is considered to be relatively loose [4] Content Summary by Directory Market Analysis - China's April economic data was mixed. Exports slightly exceeded expectations, investment weakened, fiscal revenue and expenditure increased, and consumption was under pressure. The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating [2] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continued to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut this year is expected to be postponed to September. There are uncertainties in US - EU trade negotiations, and Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs [3] Commodity Market - For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + plans to increase production. The EU plans to ban imports of Russian gas, and there is an opportunity to go long on gold on dips [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - do News - Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating. The US may lower tariffs on some countries, and the trade agreement with India is close to completion. Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs, and may adjust the bond issuance plan. The market is waiting for the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction, and OPEC + advanced the meeting date [7] Macroeconomic Data Charts - There are charts related to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commodity housing transaction area, steel consumption, Sino - US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rates, and the interest - rate corridor [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core View - The report focuses on multiple aspects including Sino-US economic and trade consultations, global trade policy games, US monetary policy, and commodity market trends. It emphasizes short - term attention on economic fact verification and long - term consideration of stagflation allocation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory authority will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC aims to "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 14, 2025, 12:01, the tariff rate on imported US goods was reduced from 34% to 10%, and an additional 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days [2] - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. The US warned that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea would take time, and India countered US tariff policies [3] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged. The April CPI data was lower than expected, but the impact of tariffs on the consumer side was not fully transmitted [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff hikes on commodities first affects demand and then inflation. Agricultural products are more likely to have price increases due to tariffs, while energy products face a supply - loose situation in the medium - term [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased imports from Brazil. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June [5] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] To - do News - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures against the US in response to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China. China is open to the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [8] - Trump mentioned progress in negotiations with Iran and an "almost zero - tariff" agreement intention with India. The APEC estimated that the GDP growth rate of the Asia - Pacific region in 2025 is 2.6%, lower than the previous 3.3% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and long - term attention is on stagflation allocation. The market sentiment has warmed up due to the substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, and subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the negotiations and the sensitive commodities. Global trade policy games also need attention, and there are impacts on trade and inflation expectations [2][3][5] Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 9 - 12, Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism, which significantly warmed up the market sentiment [2] - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation progress of Sino - US negotiations and commodities sensitive to this event, such as crude oil, container shipping index, and gold [2] Global Trade Policy Game - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at an additional 25% tariff rate [3] - This "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea will have an obvious impact on global trade, and the key lies in the negotiation process with other countries. The US - Japan and US - South Korea tariff negotiations may take a long time, and Japan requires the cancellation of automobile tariffs and adheres to the zero - tariff demand [3] - The long - term inflation expectation has been slightly revised downwards. If the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted down, the pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US FOMC Meeting - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate unchanged. The economic outlook uncertainty "further" increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades the decline in demand and then trades the increase in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals need to be vigilant against the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market [5] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru has supported copper prices. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs, and China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined. OPEC + confirmed on May 3 that it will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the current production increase rhythm in July, with a shift in strategy from production restriction to market share competition. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [5] - Due to the high uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the continuous game of global trade policies, the risk of a gold price correction needs to be vigilant [5] Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks - The joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks pointed out that the US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the implementation of 24% tariffs within the initial 90 days and retaining the remaining 10% tariffs. China will make corresponding modifications to the tariffs on US goods, and both sides will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [8] - The two sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations, and consultations can be held in China, the US, or a third country agreed by both sides [8] Japan's Stance on US Tariff Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated his stance in the negotiations with the US, demanding the cancellation of all additional tariffs, especially those on automobiles, and insisting on the zero - tariff demand [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the economy, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro - policies. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, but the April official manufacturing PMI declined, indicating the impact of tariff policies. A package of financial policies were introduced on May 7 to boost the economy [1] - The impact of tariff events on sentiment has subsided, and attention should be paid to their impact on the economy. Tariff negotiations are progressing, which may lead to more moderate macro - fluctuations. Before July, macro - economic activities are expected to focus on factual verification [1] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Be wary of the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products and the price fluctuations of agricultural products. Crude oil supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The April Politburo meeting judged the current economy, advocated more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and proposed measures such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups and promoting urban renewal. China's Q1 GDP maintained a stable and upward trend, but the April official manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with new orders and production in the contraction range [1] - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies, including the central bank's ten monetary policy measures, the financial regulatory administration's eight incremental policies, and the CSRC's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market [1] - The Trump tariff policy is still volatile. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto parts on May 3, and considered a 100% tariff on foreign - made movies. Tariff negotiations between the US and other countries are in progress, and the EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [1] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged, indicating increased economic uncertainty. The yield of Japanese 30 - year treasury bonds soared on May 7. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and traders reduced their bets on further interest rate cuts [1] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - addition events first affected demand and then inflation. Be cautious about the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals [2] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement was signed on April 30 and approved by the Ukrainian parliament on May 8. An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supported copper prices. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and pay attention to the change in the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] - The IEA monthly report lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand. OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the production - increase rhythm in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - Due to the high uncertainty of the Trump tariff policy, be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Important News - Trump announced a comprehensive agreement with the UK, and other agreements are in negotiation. The EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [5] - The Bank of England's rate - cut decision had different views among its members, and it proposed two scenarios for decision - making [5] - The Ukrainian parliament approved the US - Ukraine mineral agreement on May 8, with some concerns about the details of the agreement [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, awaiting fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the economy, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro - policies. China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, but manufacturing and service PMIs showed signs of slowdown. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - hedging policies [1] - The impact of Trump's tariff policies on market sentiment is subsiding, and the focus should shift to its impact on the economy. Tariff negotiations are progressing, and macro fluctuations are expected to moderate [2] - For commodities, short - term focus is on the transmission of fundamentals, and long - term focus is on stagflation configuration. Different commodities have different outlooks based on various factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical events [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The April Politburo meeting recognized the positive economic trend this year and the increasing external shocks. It called for more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, but the April official manufacturing PMI was 49, lower than expected, and the service PMI also declined [1] - Trump's tariff policies are still volatile. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto parts on May 3, and there are ongoing tariff negotiations with various countries. The impact on market sentiment is waning, and macro fluctuations are expected to be more moderate in the near term [2] Commodity Analysis - Based on the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases on commodities first affects demand and then inflation. Industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals are vulnerable to the emotional impact of US stock market adjustments [3] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement and the accident at the Peruvian Antamina copper mine may support copper prices. For agricultural products, the focus is on the change in the soybean - palm oil price spread. In the energy sector, the IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [4] To - do List - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 7 to introduce a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations [1] - The Ukrainian parliament will hold a special meeting on May 8 to vote on the mineral resource agreement with the US [3]